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SWPC issues first G4 geomagnetic storm watch since 2005

swpc.noaa.gov

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Re: SWPC issues first G4 geomagnetic storm watch since 2005

#11

Post by atonse »

sukhavati wrote: post #4

I'm quite worried as I'm on a transatlantic flight during this event, and there have been 6 solar eruptions with at least 4 CMEs (NOAA not up to date with the enlil spiral just yet). Here are a couple useful links I'm using to keep track of this event: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center dashboards [1], FlightAware Flight Delays and Cancellations [2] and NOAA Global Positioning System Community Dashboard [3], Prof.…

I came here to say the same. I will also be on a transatlantic flight on the 12th. Is there anything to be worried about with airplane electronics systems in flight, or is it more potentially on the side of "there might be flight delays"?

Re: SWPC issues first G4 geomagnetic storm watch since 2005

#12

Post by idontwantthis »

sukhavati wrote: post #4

I'm quite worried as I'm on a transatlantic flight during this event, and there have been 6 solar eruptions with at least 4 CMEs (NOAA not up to date with the enlil spiral just yet). Here are a couple useful links I'm using to keep track of this event: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center dashboards [1], FlightAware Flight Delays and Cancellations [2] and NOAA Global Positioning System Community Dashboard [3], Prof.…

Are you worried enough to not fly?

Re: SWPC issues first G4 geomagnetic storm watch since 2005

#14

Post by webdoodle »

Shank wrote: post #8
FL410 wrote: post #6

I am confused by the slide, which mentions in the first bullet point that this is the first "G4" since 2005, but in the last bullet point says there was one in March.

It’s the first G4 watch, but not the first G4 event. In other words, the prior G4 event was not predicted. It can happen that an event is more significant when it arrives than what was predicted, which is what happened here.

It also resulted in Aurora visible in Mexico.

Re: SWPC issues first G4 geomagnetic storm watch since 2005

#15

Post by sukhavati »

atonse wrote: post #11
sukhavati wrote: post #4

I'm quite worried as I'm on a transatlantic flight during this event, and there have been 6 solar eruptions with at least 4 CMEs (NOAA not up to date with the enlil spiral just yet). Here are a couple useful links I'm using to keep track of this event: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center dashboards [1], FlightAware Flight Delays and Cancellations [2] and NOAA Global Positioning System Community Dashboard [3], Prof.…

I came here to say the same. I will also be on a transatlantic flight on the 12th. Is there anything to be worried about with airplane electronics systems in flight, or is it more potentially on the side of "there might be flight delays"?

I was trying to find stuff around Oct 2003 when the last event of this magnitude took place, but I wasn't able to find anything comparable. From what I can tell the forecast is more mild on the 12th UTC, so I wouldn't worry that much about that. I was worried in my case because my flight leaves pretty much at the apex of the geomagnetic storm.

I think we can expect delays, GPS being unresponsive, radio issues, and some control tower congestion & issues. Can't really comment with any more detail.

Re: SWPC issues first G4 geomagnetic storm watch since 2005

#16

Post by sukhavati »

webdoodle wrote: post #13

Tony Philips with NASA runs Spaceweather.com. Yesterday he posted a pic, with an overlay from the 1859 Carrington Event sunspot. They are the same size. Let that sink in. https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=09&month=05&...

the solar spot is comparable in size but the CME were significantly (100x) less energetic than is estimated for Carrington. With that said, the Earth's magnetic field has weakened by ~15% since the 1800s so there's that...

Re: SWPC issues first G4 geomagnetic storm watch since 2005

#17

Post by ablation »

webdoodle wrote: post #13

Tony Philips with NASA runs Spaceweather.com. Yesterday he posted a pic, with an overlay from the 1859 Carrington Event sunspot. They are the same size. Let that sink in. https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=09&month=05&...

> Studies suggest that Carrington-class storms occur once every 40 to 60 years, so we're overdue. Don't worry, though. The four CMEs currently en route to Earth--even combined--are probably no match for the monster CME of 1859. The Carrington Event won't happen again this weekend.

Re: SWPC issues first G4 geomagnetic storm watch since 2005

#18

Post by op00to »

sukhavati wrote: post #4

I'm quite worried as I'm on a transatlantic flight during this event, and there have been 6 solar eruptions with at least 4 CMEs (NOAA not up to date with the enlil spiral just yet). Here are a couple useful links I'm using to keep track of this event: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center dashboards [1], FlightAware Flight Delays and Cancellations [2] and NOAA Global Positioning System Community Dashboard [3], Prof.…

Why are you worried? Not saying you're wrong to be worried, but I'm interested to know what the actual concern is.

Re: SWPC issues first G4 geomagnetic storm watch since 2005

#19

Post by uticus »

icegreentea2 wrote: post #3
jwjohnson314 wrote: post #2

If you have a pair of eclipse glasses you may be able to see the sunspot cluster causing all the action with them, it’s enormous.

I just went a took a look, seems like I could see sunspots around the 3oclock position.

Just verified I can see also, Central US. Wow that's huge to be visible from earth with no magnification.

Re: SWPC issues first G4 geomagnetic storm watch since 2005

#20

Post by afruitpie »

op00to wrote: post #18
sukhavati wrote: post #4

I'm quite worried as I'm on a transatlantic flight during this event, and there have been 6 solar eruptions with at least 4 CMEs (NOAA not up to date with the enlil spiral just yet). Here are a couple useful links I'm using to keep track of this event: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center dashboards [1], FlightAware Flight Delays and Cancellations [2] and NOAA Global Positioning System Community Dashboard [3], Prof.…

Why are you worried? Not saying you're wrong to be worried, but I'm interested to know what the actual concern is.

My concern comes from my own naïveté. I don’t know enough about flying to know how concerned I should be.

Hearing there’s a storm that affects navigation is an eyebrow-raiser, especially when sitting at an airport gate like I am.

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