The price of the biggest new tech company of all, Facebook, has done nothing but go down since its IPO. The public has said it's overvalued at $100 billion. That indicates to me that we're not in a bubble.
Are You in a Bubble?
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Re: Are You in a Bubble?
#12I bet a lot of VC and angel investors right now are looking at those FB quotes and starting to get a knot in their stomach. The jig is up, the Social Network Bubble that VC's have been hyping and pumping non-stop for the past couple years is over. I bet we'll see a return to interest in companies that have actual revenue, actual customers, and actual businesses.
I think we need at least these two major brands going thru the same fate for the social networking bubble to be affected.
Re: Are You in a Bubble?
#13Re: Are You in a Bubble?
#14On the other hand: I don't think Facebook "bubbles" will impact IT in a big way. Theoretically, if FB drops dead tomorrow - tech won't suffer that much. It will hurt companies that do business with FB, some marketing people like BuddyMedia etc. But there will be something else to do. And tech market is not based on FB, FB is a niche.
Re: Are You in a Bubble?
#15The price of the biggest new tech company of all, Facebook, has done nothing but go down since its IPO. The public has said it's overvalued at $100 billion. That indicates to me that we're not in a bubble.
What I do not understand, is why Facebook is called a "technology company". It's no more of a technology company than News Corp or any other media company. The technology there is rather simple, compared to biotech or SpaceX. I would classify it as media/entertainment (which harkens back to Zukerberg Productions) as it used to say at the bottom of FB a few years ago.
Also, speaking of News Corp, let me point out that a big part of how Facebook killed MySpace was MySpace was not able to come anywhere near the performance, or pace of evolution of Facebook. It's also worth noting that the previous market leader, Friendster, failed because they couldn't fix their performance problems when they were a tiny fraction of the size Facebook is now.
There's no need to mince words: Facebook is slinging serious scalability sauce that could only be developed by a leading technology company.
Re: Are You in a Bubble?
#16The price of the biggest new tech company of all, Facebook, has done nothing but go down since its IPO. The public has said it's overvalued at $100 billion. That indicates to me that we're not in a bubble.
What I do not understand, is why Facebook is called a "technology company". It's no more of a technology company than News Corp or any other media company. The technology there is rather simple, compared to biotech or SpaceX. I would classify it as media/entertainment (which harkens back to Zukerberg Productions) as it used to say at the bottom of FB a few years ago.
Another way of seeing this, is through how much engineering goes on their scaling problems.
[1] http://blakemasters.tumblr.com/post/22660214207/peter-thiels...
Re: Are You in a Bubble?
#17The price of the biggest new tech company of all, Facebook, has done nothing but go down since its IPO. The public has said it's overvalued at $100 billion. That indicates to me that we're not in a bubble.
It could be that venture capital is in a bubble, but that the general market is not.
Re: Are You in a Bubble?
#18The late-90s bubble was frothier, with all the talk of a recession-proof "New Economy" (oddly, most people now long for the Old one) and the massively overvalued technology stocks. Even still, there was a real underlying. The Internet really was changing the way people do business in a rather permanent way. The reason for the bubble was that people overestimated how soon certain changes would arrive.
This bubble doesn't have much of an underlying. I'd even argue that there isn't one. Facebook is a decent product and has provided a lot of value to its users, but it's not as earth-shaking as the Internet, and these "Facebook's tapeworm" startups like Zynga are insults to the millions of people trying to build things that are real. Also, the current climate of extreme social openness (where people want to broadcast their careers and locations without thought to whether they really want people to have access to that data in 5 years) is going to end, and the "cool" social startups will either be dead, or successful and "uncool", within a few years.
Re: Are You in a Bubble?
#19The price of the biggest new tech company of all, Facebook, has done nothing but go down since its IPO. The public has said it's overvalued at $100 billion. That indicates to me that we're not in a bubble.
On the stock market, where the valuation process is nearly continuous, almost 50 percent of days are down days (the daily drift is tiny in comparison to the standard deviation).
What has happened is that the Facebook stock has gone from an environment with artificial support to one without it. It has nothing to do with whether there's a bubble.
Re: Are You in a Bubble?
#20Which company will be here in 20 years...