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Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

curingaddiction.substack.com

11–20 of 214 posts

Re: Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

#14
post #6

> A policy of cost-restriction and access guarantees would bring massive public health benefits. Ah yes price controls, the best way to keep something inaccessible to everyone except those with personal connections.

For many (most?) drugs, the actual cost to produce the drug is usually far less than the selling price as it is an enforced monopoly. Given that monopoly, price restrictions don't actually restrict supply as the single supplier will still try to sell as much as they can to make as much as they can.

Re: Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

#15
Re: "mounting concern" about the profits of processed food & tobacco companies, here you are also the 2018 classic of the genre:

> Goldman Sachs asks in biotech research report: ‘Is curing patients a sustainable business model?’

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/11/goldman-asks-is-curing-patie...

Re: Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

#16
post #7
post #3

I had the thought there are gonna be some people on these drugs who will still find a way to have bad diets that keeps them fat and unhealthy. Since they have less appetite instead of a sandwich and a milkshake they will skip to the milkshake only.

When I was on Ozempic, I just didn't want the milkshake. It rewires all reward centers.

May I ask about your experience since leaving Ozempic compared to before you started taking it?

I'm not considering taking Ozempic nor am I aware of anyone who has, so I'm curious.

Re: Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

#17
Ozempic costs $1000/month (in the US) but $5/month to manufacture [0]. I think if this drug and others are to have a significant anti-consumption effect on other companies it needs to be vastly more accessible, which first requires more accessible healthcare in the US, which is unlikely to happen.

Also it's an injection, which raises the barrier. If drugs like these become orally administered and over-the-counter, then yeah, I'd be more confident that it could have a positive effect. But currently, it looks like a drug that few can access/afford in the US.

[0] https://www.sanders.senate.gov/press-releases/news-sanders-s...

Re: Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

#19

I'm not very familiar with the approval process for new drugs, but as far as I know it involves some initial step where the safety is assessed, and then the effectiveness. But I don't think either of those are actually long term processes (like, longer than 5 years). So it scares me a bit when something like Ozepmic pops up and tons of people jump on it, without knowing the long term effects that might appear. I read…

Semaglutide has been on the market since 2017 and clinical trials commenced in 2008. So we have a fair amount of data on longer-term users. It wasn't being used for general obesity until recently.

Re: Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

#20
These effects started being priced in last year. Citrini on Twitter called a lot of this out in advance and made a bunch of money on long/short plays. Might be some room left to run, but be careful shorting potato chip companies and fast food because you think you found a secret.
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