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Why I’m betting my retirement on Facebook stock today

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Re: Why I’m betting my retirement on Facebook stock today

#11
post #2

Google's pageviews have more value (because they know exactly what people are looking for), Google IPOed at a valuation of 20% of what Facebook wanted in valuation, and Google is already entrenched into the market that the author is suggesting Facebook is going to have such an easy time moving into. My money is on Google.

Sure, 20% of Facebook's valuation but also 1/2 of Facebook's revenues.

Facebook still has a lot to prove, but they also have a lot more opportunity to improve.

Re: Why I’m betting my retirement on Facebook stock today

#12
post #3

I hope he's not actually putting his retirement money on the line here. It's not about the quality of the ads, which he argues will get better with more data. It's about intent. When I search on Google, my natural next action is to click a link. That link can be organic or an ad. If it's an ad Google stands to make money. When I browse Facebook, my natural next action is not to click a link to an outside service/stor…

I just checked and Facebook gives you the option to buy ads per click, around $0.25 per click in my category. So why does it even matter if it has a low CTR? If the user didn't click, you didn't pay for it anyway. If the user does click, well there's your intent.

From my point of view as an advertiser, how is the CTR even relevant? Why do I care if google has 1% CTR and Facebook has 0,1%? If you assume both has the same cost per click. And I spend $100 on each. I'll still get the exact same amount of people clicking my ads on both.

Why does everyone keep repeating that facebook ads are only for branding, there's no intent, CTR is low? Doesn't the pay per click auction makes all of these irrelevant?

Re: Why I’m betting my retirement on Facebook stock today

#13
post #3

I hope he's not actually putting his retirement money on the line here. It's not about the quality of the ads, which he argues will get better with more data. It's about intent. When I search on Google, my natural next action is to click a link. That link can be organic or an ad. If it's an ad Google stands to make money. When I browse Facebook, my natural next action is not to click a link to an outside service/stor…

We've debated this point to death. By your argument, advertising on TV should be a failure, since people watch TV to be entertained, not to buy stuff right away. And still, 99% of TV shows are paid for by commercials. How come?

FB ads are not a failure, they are just less effective.

Re: Why I’m betting my retirement on Facebook stock today

#15
So... Facebook has some code you can put on your page and you have an instant like button. Well... what if Facebook starts providing a neat little bit of code that also embeds an ad? If the Like button knows who you are... so will the ad widget. So now they are serving "Facebook ads" on other sites. Of course that is what Google does with AdSense... but does Google know as much about you on that page as it does about that page? I could see it possible for Facebook to grab eyeballs on other sites... sites that are currently monetizing with AdSense. Not that I'm convinced they would make a dent with this approach... but you can't just compare the ads ON Facebook to the ads on Google search. If Facebook was putting the ads on pages that had a different focus than what you do on Facebook... there is a chance.

Re: Why I’m betting my retirement on Facebook stock today

#16
post #3

I hope he's not actually putting his retirement money on the line here. It's not about the quality of the ads, which he argues will get better with more data. It's about intent. When I search on Google, my natural next action is to click a link. That link can be organic or an ad. If it's an ad Google stands to make money. When I browse Facebook, my natural next action is not to click a link to an outside service/stor…

Adsense is a $10b a year segment not based on intent - it's based on advertising you see when you are on random pages on the internet (like the New York Times). Facebook will know what you want better than Google: they track you across multiple retail sites, see what you are looking at and even get structured data volunteered to them about that stuff.

I think you're making my argument for me: if anyone has stats on the total number of adsense ads served vs adwords ads served, we can derive the value of adsense vs adwords ads.

There are many more adsense ads displayed than adwords - it's google searches vs. most of the rest of the web. Yet it only makes up 1/4 of google's revenue.

Last I checked there was an order of magnitude difference between the value of an adwords vs. adsense ad.

Re: Why I’m betting my retirement on Facebook stock today

#17
post #3

I hope he's not actually putting his retirement money on the line here. It's not about the quality of the ads, which he argues will get better with more data. It's about intent. When I search on Google, my natural next action is to click a link. That link can be organic or an ad. If it's an ad Google stands to make money. When I browse Facebook, my natural next action is not to click a link to an outside service/stor…

I just checked and Facebook gives you the option to buy ads per click, around $0.25 per click in my category. So why does it even matter if it has a low CTR? If the user didn't click, you didn't pay for it anyway. If the user does click, well there's your intent. From my point of view as an advertiser, how is the CTR even relevant? Why do I care if google has 1% CTR and Facebook has 0,1%? If you assume both has the s…

I don't necessarily disagree that CTR might not be the most relevant metric here, but at some point their revenue is limited by the CTR. If they have a billion page views per day, one ad per page (for simplicity) and a CTR of 0.1%, then their daily revenue is capped at 100 million * p where p is the average price per click.

So even if users coming from Facebook are more likely to actually buy something than those coming from Google (which would make Facebook ads more valuable than Google ads, all else equal), the CTR still creates a cap on how much they can earn.

Re: Why I’m betting my retirement on Facebook stock today

#18
post #3

I hope he's not actually putting his retirement money on the line here. It's not about the quality of the ads, which he argues will get better with more data. It's about intent. When I search on Google, my natural next action is to click a link. That link can be organic or an ad. If it's an ad Google stands to make money. When I browse Facebook, my natural next action is not to click a link to an outside service/stor…

I just checked and Facebook gives you the option to buy ads per click, around $0.25 per click in my category. So why does it even matter if it has a low CTR? If the user didn't click, you didn't pay for it anyway. If the user does click, well there's your intent. From my point of view as an advertiser, how is the CTR even relevant? Why do I care if google has 1% CTR and Facebook has 0,1%? If you assume both has the s…

[deleted]

Re: Why I’m betting my retirement on Facebook stock today

#19
post #3

I hope he's not actually putting his retirement money on the line here. It's not about the quality of the ads, which he argues will get better with more data. It's about intent. When I search on Google, my natural next action is to click a link. That link can be organic or an ad. If it's an ad Google stands to make money. When I browse Facebook, my natural next action is not to click a link to an outside service/stor…

We've debated this point to death. By your argument, advertising on TV should be a failure, since people watch TV to be entertained, not to buy stuff right away. And still, 99% of TV shows are paid for by commercials. How come?

Advertisers have no way to measure just how ineffective their TV advertising is. It's pretty well established that traditional media marketing budgets have only the most tenuous link to results in the marketplace. Until recently, however, it had a singular advantage in that it was the only way to put an ad in front of a national audience.

Online advertising is cursed by a near-infinite supply and excellent metrics that immediately connect impressions to actions.

Re: Why I’m betting my retirement on Facebook stock today

#20
You should never substitute a belief for an investment strategy. Seriously, even if your idea of Facebook's long term potential is correct, you can take a haircut on whatever random thing occurs today. Balance the utility of what you gain if you're right compared to the utility of what you lose if you're wrong (think twice if you really want to make a "heads, double your house's square footage, tails live off dumpsters at 65" bet).

If you want to start investing based on your beliefs, go ahead. But have a pool of money for that and be ready to lose it.

But for your retirement, diversify.

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