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8 years later: A world Go champion's reflections on AlphaGo

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Re: 8 years later: A world Go champion's reflections on AlphaGo

#11

Post by bongodongobob »

ArtTimeInvestor wrote: post #4

I thought it would be an easy victory I ... ended up only winning one out of our five games It's interesting, how an expert in a field can be unaware of how AI is taking over. And a few years later, no human can compete anymore. I think we are in a similar situation in multiple professions today. For example with self-driving. Musk recently said, that other car manufacturers are not much interested in talks about lic…

You do realize this was 8 years ago, and no Go engine came even close to what Alpha Go was able to do right? Afaik, there weren't even any competitive engines period. It basically came out of nowhere.

Re: 8 years later: A world Go champion's reflections on AlphaGo

#13

Post by lawn »

ArtTimeInvestor wrote: post #4

I thought it would be an easy victory I ... ended up only winning one out of our five games It's interesting, how an expert in a field can be unaware of how AI is taking over. And a few years later, no human can compete anymore. I think we are in a similar situation in multiple professions today. For example with self-driving. Musk recently said, that other car manufacturers are not much interested in talks about lic…

> It's interesting, how an expert in a field can be unaware of how AI is taking over.

I think the interesting thing is how an expert in a field is wholly unprepared for predicting how the future will develop.

You mention what Musk has said about FSD and how it will completely take over in just ten years, but I feel compelled to point out that Musk has said that it's just right around the corner with only small challenges left, for many years.

I wouldn't place any faith in anything Musk says.

Re: 8 years later: A world Go champion's reflections on AlphaGo

#14

Post by huytersd »

svachalek wrote: post #7
ArtTimeInvestor wrote: post #4

I thought it would be an easy victory I ... ended up only winning one out of our five games It's interesting, how an expert in a field can be unaware of how AI is taking over. And a few years later, no human can compete anymore. I think we are in a similar situation in multiple professions today. For example with self-driving. Musk recently said, that other car manufacturers are not much interested in talks about lic…

> In ten years, probably no human can compete with AI drivers anymore. That's what they said 10 years ago. Sooner or later people will say it and be right, but the last few percent of any problem is a lot harder than people give it credit for. It may not be that hard to stay in a lane or write a little code, and that may look like it's doing most of the job, but those common tasks are just the easy part.

I think Waymo does better than a vast percentage of human drivers. It’s here already.

Re: 8 years later: A world Go champion's reflections on AlphaGo

#16

Post by ArtTimeInvestor »

bongodongobob wrote: post #11
ArtTimeInvestor wrote: post #4

I thought it would be an easy victory I ... ended up only winning one out of our five games It's interesting, how an expert in a field can be unaware of how AI is taking over. And a few years later, no human can compete anymore. I think we are in a similar situation in multiple professions today. For example with self-driving. Musk recently said, that other car manufacturers are not much interested in talks about lic…

You do realize this was 8 years ago, and no Go engine came even close to what Alpha Go was able to do right? Afaik, there weren't even any competitive engines period. It basically came out of nowhere.

That's what I meant.

That's how it usually goes with technological progress.

In any field.

Progress is minimal for a few years and then suddenly jumps up very suddenly.

So to predict what's coming, you can't just extrapolate the progress of recent years. You have to account for it being exponential with a very uneven distribution of sudden jumps.

Re: 8 years later: A world Go champion's reflections on AlphaGo

#17

Post by bevekspldnw »

svachalek wrote: post #7
ArtTimeInvestor wrote: post #4

I thought it would be an easy victory I ... ended up only winning one out of our five games It's interesting, how an expert in a field can be unaware of how AI is taking over. And a few years later, no human can compete anymore. I think we are in a similar situation in multiple professions today. For example with self-driving. Musk recently said, that other car manufacturers are not much interested in talks about lic…

> In ten years, probably no human can compete with AI drivers anymore. That's what they said 10 years ago. Sooner or later people will say it and be right, but the last few percent of any problem is a lot harder than people give it credit for. It may not be that hard to stay in a lane or write a little code, and that may look like it's doing most of the job, but those common tasks are just the easy part.

“Driving” is solved. Driving with humans on the road - doing unpredictable human things - is far off still.

My guess is industrial and home robotics will solve a lot of the “doing things around humans” problems in the next ten years.

Why the hell people decided to automate giant death machines before perfecting small things never made sense to me.

Re: 8 years later: A world Go champion's reflections on AlphaGo

#18

Post by ArtTimeInvestor »

bevekspldnw wrote: post #17
svachalek wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In ten years, probably no human can compete with AI drivers anymore. That's what they said 10 years ago. Sooner or later people will say it and be right, but the last few percent of any problem is a lot harder than people give it credit for. It may not be that hard to stay in a lane or write a little code, and that may look like it's doing most of the job, but those common tasks are just the easy part.

“Driving” is solved. Driving with humans on the road - doing unpredictable human things - is far off still. My guess is industrial and home robotics will solve a lot of the “doing things around humans” problems in the next ten years. Why the hell people decided to automate giant death machines before perfecting small things never made sense to me.

Driving the giant death machines costs us billions of manhours every day. Hundreds of billions of manhours per year.

Which small thing puts a similar burden on mankind?

Re: 8 years later: A world Go champion's reflections on AlphaGo

#19

Post by vintermann »

bongodongobob wrote: post #11
ArtTimeInvestor wrote: post #4

I thought it would be an easy victory I ... ended up only winning one out of our five games It's interesting, how an expert in a field can be unaware of how AI is taking over. And a few years later, no human can compete anymore. I think we are in a similar situation in multiple professions today. For example with self-driving. Musk recently said, that other car manufacturers are not much interested in talks about lic…

You do realize this was 8 years ago, and no Go engine came even close to what Alpha Go was able to do right? Afaik, there weren't even any competitive engines period. It basically came out of nowhere.

Not entirely right. Remi Coulom's Monte Carlo Tree Search, in 2006, was the first really big discovery. It didn't make engines good enough to beat the best humans, but it steadily made them good enough to beat 99% of go playing humans, playing at up to 6 - 7 dan level. It was still part of AlphaGo, too (though as I recall AlphaGo Zero did away with it).

Re: 8 years later: A world Go champion's reflections on AlphaGo

#20

Post by cjbgkagh »

huytersd wrote: post #14
svachalek wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In ten years, probably no human can compete with AI drivers anymore. That's what they said 10 years ago. Sooner or later people will say it and be right, but the last few percent of any problem is a lot harder than people give it credit for. It may not be that hard to stay in a lane or write a little code, and that may look like it's doing most of the job, but those common tasks are just the easy part.

I think Waymo does better than a vast percentage of human drivers. It’s here already.

But the average hour is not driven by the average driver, better drivers drive more hours, so it has to be better than the average driver in order to result in fewer incidents.
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