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Stock markets are booming but the good times are unlikely to last

economist.com

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Re: Stock markets are booming but the good times are unlikely to last

#11

Post by kelnos »

wucaworld wrote: post #7
paulpauper wrote: post #3

Experts predict 'good times will not last', and yet with a few exceptions like 2008 or 2022, prices tend to go up anyway. There is little evidence to suggest market timing works. Stock prices seemed overextended in 1996 and yet would go up for another 4 years.

Hey! Those were the last two times I invested in the market, saw my investment diminish and stopped paying attention. For what it's worth, I am putting money in again, so let's see.. lol. Edit. Oh .. I also invested just before the dot com crash. I looked at the historical charts and can't believe my timing.

"Investing", assuming you are regularly employed, shouldn't be a thing you only do at certain rare times. You should put a part of every paycheck into whatever investments match with your risk tolerance. They way you eliminate the risk that you put a big lump sum into the market right before a crash.

Re: Stock markets are booming but the good times are unlikely to last

#12

Post by andy_ppp »

djur wrote: post #8
highwayman47 wrote: post #4

The performance of the stock market is more related to the money printing by the federal reserve than anything else. Modern economics seems to deny this, and thus will make articles like this.

Which money printing are you referring to?

I think the US printed a couple of TRILLION dollars during COVID. The money hasn’t gone anywhere so if you’re American and don’t have the $80000 per person someone else has your cash.

Edit: not sure why you’re downvoting! It was actually $3.3tn in 2020 alone which is wild.

Re: Stock markets are booming but the good times are unlikely to last

#13

Post by Barrin92 »

The stock market in America just seems to have the same function as the property market in China, it's the primary thing everyone dumps their wealth in. If one looks at stock market capitalization versus real economic output the ratio keeps creeping up. So either there's some miracle returns in the future or it's just more and more divorced from the fundamentals.

Re: Stock markets are booming but the good times are unlikely to last

#15

Post by ramesh31 »

paulpauper wrote: post #3

Experts predict 'good times will not last', and yet with a few exceptions like 2008 or 2022, prices tend to go up anyway. There is little evidence to suggest market timing works. Stock prices seemed overextended in 1996 and yet would go up for another 4 years.

>Experts predict 'good times will not last', and yet with a few exceptions like 2008 or 2022, prices tend to go up anyway. There is little evidence to suggest market timing works.

It took a long time for me to accept this. Go back and look at the S&P historically for any date you'd like, and it always looks like we're teetering on the edge of an abyss. That's just the nature of economic growth.

Re: Stock markets are booming but the good times are unlikely to last

#16

Post by JKCalhoun »

highwayman47 wrote: post #4

The performance of the stock market is more related to the money printing by the federal reserve than anything else. Modern economics seems to deny this, and thus will make articles like this.

Wouldn't printing money have an inverse effect on the stock market?

Re: Stock markets are booming but the good times are unlikely to last

#18

Post by polishdude20 »

Barrin92 wrote: post #13

The stock market in America just seems to have the same function as the property market in China, it's the primary thing everyone dumps their wealth in. If one looks at stock market capitalization versus real economic output the ratio keeps creeping up. So either there's some miracle returns in the future or it's just more and more divorced from the fundamentals.

Sooo, back to gold then?

Re: Stock markets are booming but the good times are unlikely to last

#20

Post by polishdude20 »

kelnos wrote: post #11
wucaworld wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hey! Those were the last two times I invested in the market, saw my investment diminish and stopped paying attention. For what it's worth, I am putting money in again, so let's see.. lol. Edit. Oh .. I also invested just before the dot com crash. I looked at the historical charts and can't believe my timing.

"Investing", assuming you are regularly employed, shouldn't be a thing you only do at certain rare times. You should put a part of every paycheck into whatever investments match with your risk tolerance. They way you eliminate the risk that you put a big lump sum into the market right before a crash.

I haven't been regularly investing for a few years as I've been saving up for a downpayment. Is that a sound plan?
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