> But Joy's superpower is so unusual that researchers all over the world have started working with her and have discovered that she can identify several kinds of illnesses — tuberculosis, Alzheimer's disease, cancer and diabetes. The story for diagnosing Parkinson’s sounded plausible until this sentence. With Parkinson’s, you could imagine that she had some sort of sensitivity in her smell to a certain biomarker. Now…
If the goal is early diagnosis and the separate detections aren't getting confounded, why does it matter what parallel chain of causation leads to Parkinson in the patient and a correlating reading in the nose or other test? If no one in a normal state has the same mix of fear, anger and confusion and this leads to a microbial change around sweat glands, then that is a valid test of greater accuracy than many existin…
The issue is the one of the false positive and bayesian statistics. If she's detecting something that has a bunch of common causes then it's not really helpful to run a suite of tests to find an underlying problem on everyone that smells the same.
A fever can be a sign of cancer, but it's also a sign of the flu. Should we check everyone with a fever for cancer?