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Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

npr.org

11–20 of 122 posts

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#13
post #3

The media and certain political interests in the US have an interest in making everyone afraid of crime. The former needs it for ratings (if it bleeds it leads) and the latter to scare you into voting for them. There are a handful of cities having property crime epidemics due to bad local policies, but crime overall continues to fall.

> There are a handful of cities having property crime epidemics due to bad local policies

That new trend seems to be the majority of news I see re: crime. That plus DAs letting repeat/serious criminals go same day. Both are often in cities with the most journalists and news too (NYC, LA) so it gets prominent coverage.

Those near daily videos of people robbing retail stores were shocking and rightfully so, I don't think I've seen anything like that in my adult life. So I don't blame people for being concerned that modern systems support that.

Regardless, as you said, doomers/media have always sold the world if going to shit narrative. I remember reading letters from 1500s where a famous English priest was saying the same stuff, which easily could have been a twitter thread in 2024. So I doubt that's very new. If anything the rhetoric has escalated.

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#15
post #5

"The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it". —Jeff Bezos https://sports.yahoo.com/amazon-ceo-jeff-bezos-explains-2123... >

Given the difference between financial data and anecdotes here, Amazon had better hope he was wrong.

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#16
post #5

"The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it". —Jeff Bezos https://sports.yahoo.com/amazon-ceo-jeff-bezos-explains-2123... >

Depends on whether you are seeing a real pattern or disinformation. Trump isn't in power so the crime rate must be increasing. Facts don't matter!

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#17
post #2

[[even if americans dont believe it]]- form of gaslighting.

That's not gaslighting. The author is literally citing the disagreement of polls about the perception of crime vs the actual statistics of crime.

The title should really read: [Reported statistics indicate] Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. — even if Americans don't believe it

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#18
post #3

The media and certain political interests in the US have an interest in making everyone afraid of crime. The former needs it for ratings (if it bleeds it leads) and the latter to scare you into voting for them. There are a handful of cities having property crime epidemics due to bad local policies, but crime overall continues to fall.

Crime is a matter of relative perspective.

I think what is new is that with demographic trends, crime and poverty have started to suburbanize. But to me, the places I have lived (inner cities) are generally much safer than they were in the 90s and early aughts growing up. Back then, people wouldn’t let their kids go play outside or at the local park because they might catch a stray bullet from a gang shooting; it’s not anywhere this bad yet.

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#19
"The number of murders across the country surged by nearly 30% between 2019 and 2020..."

"We have data from over 200 cities showing a 12.2% decline ... in 2023 relative to 2022,...."

It's so annoying that even "good" news outlets like NPR are incompetent when it comes to showing statistical data. There is no good reason to mix city rates vs country rates or speak only in percentages instead of absolute numbers. Some quick Googling shows https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crim... (switch to the homocide data) which gives 2019-2022 numbers as 5.1, 6.5, 6.8, 6.3 per capita.

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#20
post #5

"The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it". —Jeff Bezos https://sports.yahoo.com/amazon-ceo-jeff-bezos-explains-2123... >

Just wanted to make sure I understand this right - Since Jeff B made that one statement, anecdotes are a better measure? And the second part of it talks about measurement, not data.

People are irrational and we give in to irrational fears. If I heard about one incidence of someone who is homeless attacking a bystander, I would be afraid of all homeless people. I do not have enough data to analyze (nor do I care to analyze) how many attacks have been by homeless vs others. My gut reaction drives the anecdotes and that is not always the reality.

I will give one point to this statement though - you cannot fight an emotional reaction with logic.

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