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Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

bloomberg.com

11–20 of 157 posts

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#11

The article lists a lot of things going bad for Germany. But was there some underlying reason? Like demographics, shrinking population? Or is it just the obvious , Russian gas, rising Energy costs, now their prices are too high, so exports are down.

Gas prices are lower than before the war.

So that cannot be it.

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#12
post #8

The article lists a lot of things going bad for Germany. But was there some underlying reason? Like demographics, shrinking population? Or is it just the obvious , Russian gas, rising Energy costs, now their prices are too high, so exports are down.

Yes, i think all ofthese are factors. A particularly annoying one is the debt break (Schuldenbremse) Germany introduced a few years ago. It prevents many investments currently. This one could be fixed relatively quickly though.

> This one could be fixed relatively quickly though.

In the sense that you could just repeal it, but not in the sense that there is a majority for that. The opposition parties are against repealing it, because it damages the current government, and roughly half or more of the government coalition are also against repealing it, because they consider austerity sound economic theory (meanwhile the other half considers rapidly ballooning welfare and transfer payments a feature, not a bug, and also believes rent control works, so arguably there just aren't very many adults in the room setting German economic policy right now).

So it's something that cannot be fixed quickly because people are actively against fixing it.

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#14

The article lists a lot of things going bad for Germany. But was there some underlying reason? Like demographics, shrinking population? Or is it just the obvious , Russian gas, rising Energy costs, now their prices are too high, so exports are down.

Demographics. The Baby Boomers have started to retire. Population is aging, birth rates are low, labor pool is shrinking.

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#16

People are blaming energy prices but I don’t understand: As far as I can tell, wholesale prices for both gas and electricity are lower than before the start of the war.

Supply curve shifts left, demand curve shifts left -> price is the same.

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#17

Anecdata: investment in robot and 3D builders is ramping up in Germany in response to labour shortages and increasing costs. Source: a German friend in the sector. I guess it’s good this issue is being openly discussed. Having a good problem statement is always a good start. By contrast in the UK, deindustrialisation of the 80s/90s/00s was not a massive political topic. And the ensuing enshittification of the economy…

Automation in the works since at least 2016 in western Europe, it was a leg of the Boost4.0 project (an other leg was better repairability and part manufacturing, which might have pushed 3d printing but I haven't worked on that part so do not believe me on this, it's an unfounded guess).

The leftist in me is sad to acknowledge that (not really, I'm more on the autogestion side), but EU institutions dropped the ball on this subjects, the main drivers were auto companies and universities/engineering schools.

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#18
IMO the cheap Russian gas was keeping Germany afloat while it was already crumbling. Germany has been too slow in adapting for the modern age, building out their infrastructure such as fiber[1] or even finishing their part of the NRLA[2] which is still not even close to being finished. They added too much red tape for every little crap[3] making it incredibly difficult for any business to get anywhere (small German you-tubers are dragged to court because they forgot to place a small disclaimer on their website which could have been handled with a small fine or warning).

In recent times trying to compete with other countries a lot has been privatized making the whole thing even worse. You have private infrastructure resulting in the same road being ripped up multiple times every-time another fiber provider wants to add service. You also have the once 80%+ on time rail network being so late that trains are stopped at the Swiss border to prevent time shifts in the tight Swiss schedule. While Switzerland implemented Clock-face scheduling a long time ago Germany moved the date to 2070[4]!

You also now have private low budget trains running on the network. These companies cut corners to the maximum and if one of these trains breaks down it blocks the track. Unlike a bus, you can't just drive around it.

There are also still large parts of the German rail network that aren't electrified. The trip from Zürich to München only recently has been electrified not requiring a locomotive switch.

IMO, infrastructure needs to be public, roads, rail and fiber. Companies need to make money for their shareholders and with infrastructure the profit comes from long term economic growth of a region. This does not translate to direct company profit.

[1] https://netzpolitik.org/2018/danke-helmut-kohl-kabelfernsehe... [DE]

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NRLA

[3] https://www.politico.eu/article/spam-email-gdpr-lawsuits/

[4] https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/bahn-deutsc... [DE]

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#19
Germany's strategy has been to offer higher quality products at a huge markup. Just using the auto industry as an example, in the past twenty years the difference in quality between a mass market vehicle and a luxury vehicle has compressed. Competing on quality seems to be getting harder.

The Anglophone economies, whose shift to services away from manufacturing has been ballyhooed and decried in many quarters, embraced competing on novelty. By being the first mover in many industries.

The Anglophone strategy led to greater internal inequality but seems to be better from an aggregate standpoint. I'd like to see Germany's manufacturing strategy work since it preserves mid-skill jobs, but this is casting doubt.

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#20
post #8

The article lists a lot of things going bad for Germany. But was there some underlying reason? Like demographics, shrinking population? Or is it just the obvious , Russian gas, rising Energy costs, now their prices are too high, so exports are down.

Yes, i think all ofthese are factors. A particularly annoying one is the debt break (Schuldenbremse) Germany introduced a few years ago. It prevents many investments currently. This one could be fixed relatively quickly though.

It does not prevent investments by industry at all.
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