On a long enough timeline, all empires return to smaller states
Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt
11–20 of 234 posts
Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt
#12Congress-people have few incentives to restrain or reduce the national debt. There is plenty of talk, but little action. The event horizon may be distant, but the pull is inexorable. What could possibly solve this? Could we give representatives and senators bonuses for spending less and taxing more?
Not sure about that solution, but we could elect representation that does the right thing(s), and not just the thing(s) that get them reelected.
That’s not how selection works unfortunately.
Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt
#13Let’s answer this man with his own damn quote:
> History is useful for the thrill of knowing the past, and for the narrative (indeed), provided it remains a harmless narrative. One should learn under severe caution. History is certainly not a place to theorize or derive general knowledge, nor is it meant to help in the future, without some caution. We can get negative confirmation from history, which is invaluable, but we get plenty of illusions of knowledge along with it.
Lets also then consider that this gentleman has made a career from a book about the unpredictability of events, and should no more be venerated for his prediction capabilities than someone working under the neon lights of a flickering roadside Psychic sign.
Looking at the highest US national debt levels in history while declaring that we are in for a debt crisis is on the same level of prediction. Of course the most likely scenario is debt spiral. That is the lesson of history, and the pattern of civilization, as leaders aren’t wise and austerity isn’t popular.
Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt
#14I would take a bet that the U.S. remains a super power longer than Nassim Taleb remains alive.
He will go into a literal ‘death spiral’ before the US goes into a figurative ‘death spiral’
Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt
#15Does this correctly factor in that currently the US is the western worlds de facto military, more or less?
Because as long as we hold that position I don’t imagine the US government will be shut out of the debt markets at all. This is part of the problem I wager is there is still enormous incentive to keep the scheme afloat by other nations too
Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt
#16We owe a bit more than 1 year's GDP.
Most families that own a house owe substantially more than 1 year's income.
Last time we reduced the annual deficit to zero, the usual debt hawks all reversed their position and said "this is terrible". We've demonstrated in my lifetime that we can do this. The fact that "we" don't want to right now has more to do with Republican attitudes towards taxation than anything else.
MMT says we don't need to think about this the way we think about personal and corporate debt.
It's not that there's nothing to see here, but the sky is not falling.
Now, the stock market overvaluation ... that could be a real problem, but not the same problem.
Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt
#17man who made a career making bombastic claims makes another bombastic claim... more news at 11.
sooner or later he will get one right!
Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt
#18He’s a smart guy and his books are insightful but he says this basically every year.
His track record making actual monetary bets on all this has been mixed at best.
Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt
#19Is the U.S. primary deficit really all that much more than GDP growth? Seems like if we could make it a decade or so without deficit-financed tax cuts (TCJA), new entitlements (Medicare Part D) or some catastrophe requiring massive fiscal stimulus (GFC, Covid), the debt situation should look quite a bit more manageable just on the basis of economic growth.
Admittedly “if” is doing a lot of work in that sentence, though.
Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt
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