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The rise of batteries in six charts

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Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#13
post #4

This is all very encouraging and in particular batteries role in solar Two interesting data points to that end 1) The "duck curve" for CA is almost neutral - eg the timing imbalance between peak demand and solar power generation - battery utilization is the most straightforward solution here - https://twitter.com/baker_edmund/status/1750644294673748366 2) There has been a massive decline in rooftop solar applications…

State policy is fundamental to the entire green revolution. None of it would have been possible without nations incentivizing it. Eventually once the entire energy generation/consumption cycle is entrenched and we are all dependent on it, they can safely take away the incentives.

It's a bit like changing the tires on a moving bus. Somebody had to pay for the new tires and wheels, and the support truck to run along side the bus, and the extra fuel, and a discount for the new tires, etc. Once the new tires are on the bus can keep driving without support.

Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And that balance is changing.

It is a little bit for a bunch of reasons, but how does improving battery storage change the generation mix?

Not an expert, but the biggest downside from renewables seems to be the swings in production. Solar is obviously not useful at night. Wind comes and goes.

Batteries and other forms of energy storage to normalize distribution are more important for renewables than fossil fuels.

Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#15
This is a great set of charts and analysis, although I have two problems with it.

1. On the chart of energy density, I'd like to see the the energy density of petrol for comparison. It's much higher, and even though extrapolation is dangerous, I'd like to see how long it could take to reach parity given some of the different forecasting models they mention. Specifically regarding their mention of air travel, I'd like to know what the minimum viable energy density would be for a vessel's fuel source, because my current understanding is that commercial air travel powered by electricity is not feasible.

2. They mention S-curve adoption, but that reaches a horizontal asymptote eventually, it doesn't go up forever. I'd like to see more analysis on where we think we're at on the S-curve, and why. I'd like to see a guess on where it levels out displayed on that chart, instead of the arrow simply pointing at the sky. If nothing else, show where the chemical limit might be based on current battery technology.

I want to displace fossil fuels and reduce pollution and slow the greenhouse effect as much as possible. I think transparency and realistic expectations need to be part of the transition. The more information available to markets, the more efficiently they can work towards the goal. I find it very difficult to get answers to these types of questions when discussing renewable energy generation and storage. I'm sure part of it is my own ignorance on where to look, which is why I ask: especially here, hopefully an expert can see this and quickly point me in the right direction.

Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And that balance is changing.

It is a little bit for a bunch of reasons, but how does improving battery storage change the generation mix?

The bigger issue with "battery" technology is that it is unsustainable/toxic.

https://www.mountsinai.org/health-library/poison/dry-cell-ba...

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01735-z

Fossil fuels are OFC also toxic, I'm not advocating for indefinite use of those either.

Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is a little bit for a bunch of reasons, but how does improving battery storage change the generation mix?

Not an expert, but the biggest downside from renewables seems to be the swings in production. Solar is obviously not useful at night. Wind comes and goes. Batteries and other forms of energy storage to normalize distribution are more important for renewables than fossil fuels.

Batteries can also help to handle peak demand.

Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#18
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is a little bit for a bunch of reasons, but how does improving battery storage change the generation mix?

The bigger issue with "battery" technology is that it is unsustainable/toxic. https://www.mountsinai.org/health-library/poison/dry-cell-ba... https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01735-z Fossil fuels are OFC also toxic, I'm not advocating for indefinite use of those either.

Wait until you hear about fossil fuels.

https://www.mountsinai.org/health-library/poison/fuel-oil-po...

You don't want to swallow either one.

Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#20

This is a great set of charts and analysis, although I have two problems with it. 1. On the chart of energy density, I'd like to see the the energy density of petrol for comparison. It's much higher, and even though extrapolation is dangerous, I'd like to see how long it could take to reach parity given some of the different forecasting models they mention. Specifically regarding their mention of air travel, I'd like…

> I'd like to see the the energy density of petrol for comparison.

Petrol's higher energy density doesn't matter as much as people think.

Electric vehicles are around four times as efficient as petrol. In a petrol car, only 20% of the energy is converted to motion. In electric cars, this is around 80% (with some variation dependent on regenerative braking). I wrote about this extensively in a previous article: https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/electrification-en...

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