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My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

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Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#11

Post by anonzzzies »

vallode wrote: post #7

I'm no AI expert, I don't have a lot of domain knowledge but what irks me about reading through this entire blog post is the idea that we are hinging on a definition of AGI that apparently accounts for 95% (!) of "economically valuable work" while basically not talking _at all_ about the trades. No mention of construction, manual labour, mechanics, welders, painters, nothing! Is the author trying to say that all that…

I think the idea of most is that at the time we have AGI, we will robots designing robots that will ‘fix’ AI for the trades.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#12

Post by ChatGTP »

vallode wrote: post #7

I'm no AI expert, I don't have a lot of domain knowledge but what irks me about reading through this entire blog post is the idea that we are hinging on a definition of AGI that apparently accounts for 95% (!) of "economically valuable work" while basically not talking _at all_ about the trades. No mention of construction, manual labour, mechanics, welders, painters, nothing! Is the author trying to say that all that…

The belief is that once the AGI is here, the possibilities are endless for disrupting absolutely every aspect of our life and society, the end of human history is what I've hear Open AI folks say.

There will be zero work, humans will be completely useless economically and we'll just have to hope that some how, all of this wealth is fairly distributed and we don't lose our minds from feeling completely useless.

What you can't imagine happening now, will be possible by deploying the AGI. Things we can't even dream of will be possible. It will be all chaotic and completely unpredictable over night. Eternal life ? No problems, pickup the phone and place your order.

What's appealing about this? I don't know, but billions and upon billions are being poured into it and many "smart" people are striving for it.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#13

Post by msoad »

“Work” to us, in the tech bubble is sitting at a desk and doing some typing and clicking and sometimes decision making. The world out there is much more different. Work for many people is physical or very human (like a teacher or psychologist).

Yes it’s easy to guess the job the involves mostly moving information around would be automated but that’s not all jobs by any means.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#14

Post by elicash »

behnamoh wrote: post #3

For fck's sake, please stop using this font. I know Apple started the trend but even they went back to sane alternatives. The narrow lines of this font are a torture to the eyes.

I think this is just plain Helvetica, with weight at 300 rather than 400.

Apple used to use Helvetica, and even an ultra thin version of it, but I wouldn't say they started the trend of using Helvetica.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#17

Post by jsharf »

idopmstuff wrote: post #10
vallode wrote: post #7

I'm no AI expert, I don't have a lot of domain knowledge but what irks me about reading through this entire blog post is the idea that we are hinging on a definition of AGI that apparently accounts for 95% (!) of "economically valuable work" while basically not talking _at all_ about the trades. No mention of construction, manual labour, mechanics, welders, painters, nothing! Is the author trying to say that all that…

I totally agree with this - it always seems like sort of a weird omission when people talk about AGI doing 95% of work without any discussion of robotics. It seems very obvious that you need bipedal robots (or a lot of different types of robots) to hit that number. Do these AGI predictions assume that we'll have those by the time they hit AGI? Or is the word "knowledge" supposed to be implied before the work "work"?…

If we have intelligent AI that can automate programming, then making really good robots will not be a problem. While not trivial, actuators and power systems are not the reason why we don’t have robots that can do all manual labor for us. Software is the reason, and the same kind of software that’s learning to code (machine learning) can also be adapted to washing dishes, folding clothing, doing craft labor or previously human manufacturing jobs.

Accelerating programming and information jobs also means accelerating the creation of robots that can do these trade jobs

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#18

Post by kiba »

vallode wrote: post #7

I'm no AI expert, I don't have a lot of domain knowledge but what irks me about reading through this entire blog post is the idea that we are hinging on a definition of AGI that apparently accounts for 95% (!) of "economically valuable work" while basically not talking _at all_ about the trades. No mention of construction, manual labour, mechanics, welders, painters, nothing! Is the author trying to say that all that…

I am more concerned about people abusing AI technology to generate spam, fake, and trick people, resulting in an almost entirely useless internet and polluted information space.

Maybe it's for the best that we start meeting each other in meatspace.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#19

Post by osrec »

vallode wrote: post #7

I'm no AI expert, I don't have a lot of domain knowledge but what irks me about reading through this entire blog post is the idea that we are hinging on a definition of AGI that apparently accounts for 95% (!) of "economically valuable work" while basically not talking _at all_ about the trades. No mention of construction, manual labour, mechanics, welders, painters, nothing! Is the author trying to say that all that…

I agree that it doesn't account for blue collar workers, but it wouldn't surprise me if the balance, purely in terms of financials, was actually that unbalanced.

I'm not saying it's correct or fair that a trader sat at his desk can contribute £20 million to a country's "output", while a builder, working his backside off could maybe add £100k, but that's the world we live in...

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#20

Post by siliconc0w »

I'm an "overhang" bear, while incremental progress will be made - it'll come at too high of a cost. The larger, slower, more expensive models have limited applications(mostly fine-tuning the economical ones) so there will be ultimately less investment. Unless there is a new unlock, we'll be left with mediocre 3.5 models for most real-time apps and excitement will fade.
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