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IPhone Will Fail in a Late, Defensive Move (2007)

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Re: IPhone Will Fail in a Late, Defensive Move (2007)

#11

Post by ethank »

People get so caught up in existing paradigms and the resultant hegemonies which enforce them that they become blind to the obvious.

This journalist is not alone in this. Examples permeate both media history and just criticism in general. For anything that is "obvious" there is always a contrarian who seems unable to see movement which we see as obvious.

Anyhow, the iPhone announcement in 2007 was interesting from my viewpoint being in a major record label because of how it portended the complete and utter end of control. It brought domestically something that was already happening in South Korea, where "ownership" of content meant little to the average consumer.

Of course the label folks thought it would mean more money from ringtones, and were bitterly disappointed that it didn't support custom ones out the gate.

Basically people saw what they wanted with the iPhone announcement, not what was actually there.

Re: IPhone Will Fail in a Late, Defensive Move (2007)

#12

Post by jimmyvanhalen »

drivebyacct2 wrote: post #4
rudiger wrote: post #2

The original 2007 iPhone was ridiculously good. It's five years later and it still feels ahead of its time. There's no way Apple would put that amount of effort into their version 1.0 if it was just a "defensive" move.

What about iOS feels ahead of it's time? iOS is showing it's age in my opinion. With Contracts and Charms in Windows and Intents in Android, I feel cramped and limited every time I use iOS (where Twitter integration is "magical" and things like Instagram are necessary ). Even with ICS and it's makeover and hardware acceleration it's hard to give iOS the "magic" edge these days. That having been said, it's of course v…

> What about iOS feels ahead of it's time?

-iOS doesn't crash as often as Android

-iOS doesn't have nearly as many security/privacy issues/virus/spyware

-iOS is not(as) fragmented like Android

-iOS is faster (no lags) and not as buggy as Android

-iOS developer and user support way better than Android

-iOS ecosystem/app market way better than Android

-iOS user interface is simpler/easier to use/more straightforward than Android/TouchWiz/HTCSense/etc.

-more well-designed, well-written iOS apps than Android

-better battery life, better hardware, better screen, better user interface, etc.

Re: IPhone Will Fail in a Late, Defensive Move (2007)

#13

Post by jsm386 »

markrickert wrote: post #5
gbhati wrote: post #3

i wonder if he still works in tech journalism!!

That's the thing. These guys never go away. They keep getting paid to write flawed versions of the future that will never come to pass. That's why I don't put any weight in anyone who has "analyst" or "tech journalist" in their credentials.

On the flip side you have generally good, thoughtful, regularly accurate analysis/projections from Horace Dediu over at http://asymo.com.

And the 'Street vs. Amateurs' predictions are always interesting to watch: http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/04/16/how-many-iphones-did-...

Re: IPhone Will Fail in a Late, Defensive Move (2007)

#14

Post by drivebyacct2 »

jimmyvanhalen wrote: post #12
drivebyacct2 wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about iOS feels ahead of it's time? iOS is showing it's age in my opinion. With Contracts and Charms in Windows and Intents in Android, I feel cramped and limited every time I use iOS (where Twitter integration is "magical" and things like Instagram are necessary ). Even with ICS and it's makeover and hardware acceleration it's hard to give iOS the "magic" edge these days. That having been said, it's of course v…

> What about iOS feels ahead of it's time? -iOS doesn't crash as often as Android -iOS doesn't have nearly as many security/privacy issues/virus/spyware -iOS is not(as) fragmented like Android -iOS is faster (no lags) and not as buggy as Android -iOS developer and user support way better than Android -iOS ecosystem/app market way better than Android -iOS user interface is simpler/easier to use/more straightforward th…

None of those are facts and in my experience the anecdote goes the opposite way. My Galaxy Nexus has locked up ONCE on me ever, my iPhone breathern crash often enough that it happens weekly just from being at the bars.

Fragmentation is a joke. My phone has never, ever, ever had a privacy issue and that's also hilarious given the weeks of iPhone privacy issues (GPS, iOS5, Contacts)

>-iOS is faster (no lags) and not as buggy as Android

hahahahaha

>-iOS ecosystem/app market way better than Android

hahahaha

Do people really believe this stuff still? Yes. Faux wood and fake plastic looks great in apps. So futuristic.

Better hardware? Verifiably false. Better screen? Pft, mine's AMOLED 720p.

Re: IPhone Will Fail in a Late, Defensive Move (2007)

#15

Post by jack-r-abbit »

bcrescimanno wrote: post #6

Hindsight, of course, is 20/20--but to be fair to this journalist, there were some very real reasons to think the iPhone wouldn't really succeedn (at least not in an industry shifting way). At the time, the carriers maintained almost full control over the whole ecosystem and if entrenched players like Nokia couldn't force their hand on anything, what reason did people have to believe Apple could? Moreover, the initia…

> let's not forget that it brought about a "touch-revolution."

And let's not forget that when the iPhone was released it was not the first app enabled touch screen phone. I would say that Palm did just as much (if not more) for the touch revolution. It just did it in a bit more clunky way. The iPhone brought the sexy into the mix.

Re: IPhone Will Fail in a Late, Defensive Move (2007)

#16

Post by thought_alarm »

When you get past the author's ridiculous pooh-poohing of Apple's products, the actual analysis of the cell phone industry that he quotes is pretty well right on the mark and sadly still applies to the industry in 2012.

While the iPhone 1.0 lagged well behind established smart phones like the BlackBerry in a lot of areas, the iPhone was revolutionary in its overall quality, its user interface, and its web browser. It's often hard to predict how important those things will be. And all people had seen at that point was a demo from Steve Jobs.

But what the market research really failed to predict was that average consumers would start dumping their carriers and switch to AT&T just to get their hands on this new iPhone. That led virtually all other major carriers to jump through whatever hoops necessary to get the iPhone on their networks to avoid being left out in the cold. And the rest is history.

In an industry where it's the manufacturers who have to jump through all the hoops to get support from the carriers, this role reversal between Apple and carriers turned the industry on its head. Nobody would have predicted that in January 2007.

Re: IPhone Will Fail in a Late, Defensive Move (2007)

#18

Post by rkwz »

ethank wrote: post #11

People get so caught up in existing paradigms and the resultant hegemonies which enforce them that they become blind to the obvious. This journalist is not alone in this. Examples permeate both media history and just criticism in general. For anything that is "obvious" there is always a contrarian who seems unable to see movement which we see as obvious. Anyhow, the iPhone announcement in 2007 was interesting from my…

>It brought domestically something that was already happening in South Korea, where "ownership" of content meant little to the average consumer.

Can you expand on this?

Re: IPhone Will Fail in a Late, Defensive Move (2007)

#19

Post by barrkel »

jimmyvanhalen wrote: post #12
drivebyacct2 wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about iOS feels ahead of it's time? iOS is showing it's age in my opinion. With Contracts and Charms in Windows and Intents in Android, I feel cramped and limited every time I use iOS (where Twitter integration is "magical" and things like Instagram are necessary ). Even with ICS and it's makeover and hardware acceleration it's hard to give iOS the "magic" edge these days. That having been said, it's of course v…

> What about iOS feels ahead of it's time? -iOS doesn't crash as often as Android -iOS doesn't have nearly as many security/privacy issues/virus/spyware -iOS is not(as) fragmented like Android -iOS is faster (no lags) and not as buggy as Android -iOS developer and user support way better than Android -iOS ecosystem/app market way better than Android -iOS user interface is simpler/easier to use/more straightforward th…

I struggle to think of a single time Android has crashed on me. The iOS browser, on the other hand, crashed 3 times in my first day with an Apple device.

But the primary reason I use Android is that it has features iOS doesn't; proper cross-app integration with intents, a replaceable launcher, a user accessible file system and best of all, I never have to deal with iTunes. I absolutely loathe iTunes.

I've never had problems with fragmentation (probably helps that I run Nexus devices - I've had more issues running older iOS on iPod Touches that hadn't been upgraded owing to upgrade fees); and I find UI more consistent - or at least did, before the menu button was deprecated (I happen to like menus for their discoverability). The back button is awesome. It's been some time since I was in the Apple app ecosystem, but I still don't think they let you have things like AIDE, Tasker or Locale.

I do think iOS devices have higher frame rates, fewer dropped frames and lower touch latency. ICS recent apps button latency is a joke - nearly a second on my galaxy nexus at times. The iOS text selection mechanism is better. And having switched from HTC to Samsung, I'm not impressed with the hardware (though the margin between iPhone 4 screen and Galaxy Nexus screen is quite small). But I also think iPhone 4 glass back is a triumph of style over usefulness.

Re: IPhone Will Fail in a Late, Defensive Move (2007)

#20

Post by InclinedPlane »

thought_alarm wrote: post #16

When you get past the author's ridiculous pooh-poohing of Apple's products, the actual analysis of the cell phone industry that he quotes is pretty well right on the mark and sadly still applies to the industry in 2012. While the iPhone 1.0 lagged well behind established smart phones like the BlackBerry in a lot of areas, the iPhone was revolutionary in its overall quality, its user interface, and its web browser. It…

"Nobody would have predicted that in January 2007."

To be fair, plenty of people did. Plenty of people didn't, of course: http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2008/10/22/revisiting-the-dumbes...

The fact that so many people couldn't wrap their heads around the iPhone's success is rather shameful. Sure, there's a lot of solid reasons why there was plenty of friction and many hurdles, but at the end of the day money is supreme. Is it shocking that $1400 of guaranteed revenue per phone would ultimately be embraced by the carriers regardless of their reluctance about some aspects of the process?

Ultimately what happened was that so many people fooled themselves into the idea that they understood the market and the industry better than they actually did. More so, they didn't want to admit that this development coming out of left field represented a superior understanding their their own knowledge, which was too much for their egos.

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