IMHO there's a good chance that Bibi and his friends were warned about the incoming big Hamas attack by Mossad and/or other Israeli agencies. Would Bibi act to prevent it or use it to stay in power and potentially get rid of the Palestinians in Gaza?
Spike in short selling in Israeli-company ETF days before Oct 7 [pdf]
11–20 of 82 posts
Re: Spike in short selling in Israeli-company ETF days before Oct 7 [pdf]
#12The Egyptian intelligence services repeatedly warned of an incoming attack and the Israelis ignored the warnings. Maybe the information was kicked up by the traders?
Re: Spike in short selling in Israeli-company ETF days before Oct 7 [pdf]
#13so, when this happened on 9/11 the actual investigation found a stock picking newsletter that had simply called the stock sector for technical analysis reasons this paper only compares volume to prior campaigns in Israel, and draws a conclusions based on that additionally it has the bias of saying these are “gaps in enforcement of insider trading laws”, seemingly not understanding that an insider trading law would no…
I believe it actually says "gaps in U.S. and international enforcement of legal
prohibitions on informed trading.", then later goes on to say
" But as its name suggests, the U.S. law of insider trading is a poor fit for trading patterns of the kind we document here." (page 38).
So it does seem to understand that insider trading doesn't apply to the data here. I think "informed trading" meaning prior knowledge (not insider company trading) is the relevant point here.
Re: Spike in short selling in Israeli-company ETF days before Oct 7 [pdf]
#14Earlier quoted context omitted.
Even if not correlated, this is diabolically genius for all state sponsors and financiers of terrorism.
Not sure if it's diabolical genius, it was literally the opening plot point of the bond film Casino Royale
Bond films are notorious for never having what could be colloquially referred to as some kind of diabolical genius involved in the plot.
Re: Spike in short selling in Israeli-company ETF days before Oct 7 [pdf]
#15IMHO there's a good chance that Bibi and his friends were warned about the incoming big Hamas attack by Mossad and/or other Israeli agencies. Would Bibi act to prevent it or use it to stay in power and potentially get rid of the Palestinians in Gaza?
Why do you think there is a good chance?
Re: Spike in short selling in Israeli-company ETF days before Oct 7 [pdf]
#16[flagged]
Re: Spike in short selling in Israeli-company ETF days before Oct 7 [pdf]
#17There's a new "conspiracy theory" on the block to explain this and other events (I do admittedly find it plausible): It's not like Israel has been, or is, a friend of Gaza. So when Gaza was planning the attack, either Israel's previously famous intelligence service was caught completely off guard (despite the warning by Egypt) - or they let it happen, intentionally, as an excuse to raid Gaza as well as improve the po…
Both Bibi and Hamas leaders are corrupted war criminals, that can only gain political dividends if the conflict escalates and will go to jail if it gets peacefully resolved.
Re: Spike in short selling in Israeli-company ETF days before Oct 7 [pdf]
#18IMHO there's a good chance that Bibi and his friends were warned about the incoming big Hamas attack by Mossad and/or other Israeli agencies. Would Bibi act to prevent it or use it to stay in power and potentially get rid of the Palestinians in Gaza?
Why do you think there is a good chance?
Well, look at Gaza. If you are Israel, you hate that it exists (and of course, vice versa).
In 2006, Gaza had the borders closed and was sealed in. Gaza's population was 473,257 people. Instead of giving in, Gaza decided to have a lot of children, resulting in a population of 2.048 million people as of 2020.
Kind of a failure on multiple levels. And now all those people want to kill you for what you did to them. That sucks. Your prime minister who has served for over 16 years is taking the blame with about ~20% popularity. Things need to be fixed.
One day, you wake up, and find out Gaza's planning an attack. And for once, instead of responding forcefully, you decide: What if we did nothing? They attack, we respond with the world behind our backs, and solve this problem.
I'm not saying that what's happened. It just seems plausible.
Re: Spike in short selling in Israeli-company ETF days before Oct 7 [pdf]
#19There's a new "conspiracy theory" on the block to explain this and other events (I do admittedly find it plausible): It's not like Israel has been, or is, a friend of Gaza. So when Gaza was planning the attack, either Israel's previously famous intelligence service was caught completely off guard (despite the warning by Egypt) - or they let it happen, intentionally, as an excuse to raid Gaza as well as improve the po…
> It's not like Israel has been, or is, a friend of Gaza. So when Gaza was planning the attack
This is an odd way to decribe things considering Gaza is not a state. Its population is mostly refugees who were ethnically cleansed from nearby villages and functionally it operates as a concentration camp preventing those people from trying to return to those villages which are now occupied by settlers.
Re: Spike in short selling in Israeli-company ETF days before Oct 7 [pdf]
#20so, when this happened on 9/11 the actual investigation found a stock picking newsletter that had simply called the stock sector for technical analysis reasons this paper only compares volume to prior campaigns in Israel, and draws a conclusions based on that additionally it has the bias of saying these are “gaps in enforcement of insider trading laws”, seemingly not understanding that an insider trading law would no…
I believe it actually says "gaps in U.S. and international enforcement of legal prohibitions on informed trading.", then later goes on to say " But as its name suggests, the U.S. law of insider trading is a poor fit for trading patterns of the kind we document here." (page 38). So it does seem to understand that insider trading doesn't apply to the data here. I think "informed trading" meaning prior knowledge (not in…
they buried the lede quite far there.
yes, they are trying to shift opinions for this stretch of a case and masquerading it as academic. this is an enthusiast blog post at best, should have just posted it on Seeking Alpha or even just Medium
its good entertainment, they should have left a patreon link at the bottom