How does one get this information about congressional trades?
Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
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Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#12not very useful. no comparison of S&P 500 and it stops in early 2023 and starts in 2020. a 3 year backtest that ends in early 2023 and ignores the bull market that began in 2023 is enough to prove anything.
Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#13Is there a legitimate argument for keeping this legal and not pursuing an expansion of existing insider trading laws? The incentives here are horrifically backwards.
at the same time let's remove the immunity of politicians and prevent long terms that keep people in office until they die.
Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#14This is super interesting. The delay between the transaction and the disclosure may not be much of a handicap if lawmakers are making the purchases far in advance of the events to come. Has anyone run a historical backtest of this strategy?
Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#15The S&P 500 is up around 16% over the same period, without counting dividends. With dividends, you’d be at around 18%. So… this strategy isn’t particularly impressive unless it can continue this trend over several more years.
Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#16One year is nothing, let's see how it does over 20 years and 50 years.
Maybe there is years of data available on that? If so, someone should do an analysis of how much politicians pocketed since then.
it is probably hard to do because the data is hard to obtain or analyze in the correct context
Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#17The two graphs have visibly quite different volatilities. A number like 20% is not meaningful unless you also somehow state the risk, eg in terms of volatility or beta or other measures.
Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#18Honestly, I'd be shocked if HFT firms hadn't integrated all this knowledge into their algorithms ages ago, removing any potential alpha. More likely I think is just that the market has gone up significantly since May 2022, and good stocks disproportionately do very well in an upmarket. For instance, QQQ, is up 31% in the same time period.
Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#19Is there a legitimate argument for keeping this legal and not pursuing an expansion of existing insider trading laws? The incentives here are horrifically backwards.
> Is there a legitimate argument for keeping this legal and not pursuing an expansion of existing insider trading laws?
What existing insider trading laws?
Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#20This is super interesting. The delay between the transaction and the disclosure may not be much of a handicap if lawmakers are making the purchases far in advance of the events to come. Has anyone run a historical backtest of this strategy?
It is hard to run a backtest when the actual strategy cannot be explicated precisely. For example, you would need to know the size of the account/capital. Just saying that a congress person sells $1 million of microsoft is useless unless you know when it was purchased how much capital total etc.