Are we heading for World War Three? • Hacker News Board

Re: Are we heading for World War Three?

#11

Post by rcarr » Thu, Oct 12, 2023, 6:46 PM UTC

tyingq wrote: post #6

throwaway4good wrote: post #3

"Recent high-profile advances in artificial intelligence have led to increased fears that AI could accidentally cause a global conflict."

Yeah, I don't know who sprinkled AI on this. There's plenty to talk about around unexpected escalation around Ukraine, Taiwan, Gaza, and so on without adding that.

I don't see a runaway AI itself causing the conflict but I could see AI easily fanning the flames. Think both AI tools such as completely fake viral footage of war atrocities and other propaganda to win over public opinion and AI consequences such as massive unemployment causing internal problems and stoking the conditions for either internal or external war.

Alternatively and even more twisted, I could see someone scapegoating a runaway AI to start the conflict - "it wasn't us that attacked first, it was the AI malfunctioning, we're the good guys but they won't listen to us so we have to fight them now"

Re: Are we heading for World War Three?

#12

Post by daft_pink » Thu, Oct 12, 2023, 6:51 PM UTC

It certainly feels like we are headed to an armed confrontation with a state armed with nuclear weapons. I doubt we will truly fight over Taiwan and the USA is bluffing and North Korea isn’t going to start a fight, but I think Iran or Russia or Russian proxies could easily devolve into all out war.

Re: Are we heading for World War Three?

#13

Post by Bjartr » Thu, Oct 12, 2023, 6:52 PM UTC

rcarr wrote: post #7

I'm of the opinion that we're probably at the midpoint of what future historians will consider the preliminary period. The Non-Western axis has been turning up the heat, there's been something like 8 or 9 coups in Africa since 2020 plus more coup attempts, there was the Myanmar coup in 2021 you've got troop build up along the Serbia-Kosovo border, you've got fighting again in Azerbaijan and Armenia, and now Israel an…

How does the rate of conflict in those places compare to the past few decades? I have no context to evaluate if 8 coups in Africa since 2020 is high relative to history.

Re: Are we heading for World War Three?

#14

Post by daft_pink » Thu, Oct 12, 2023, 6:53 PM UTC

morphicpro wrote: post #2

It's already started and no one even cares.

It feels like we are in the Downton Abbey, where people are starting to wait for the actual war to begin.

Re: Are we heading for World War Three?

#15

Post by tyingq » Thu, Oct 12, 2023, 6:53 PM UTC

imp0cat wrote: post #10

tyingq wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I don't know who sprinkled AI on this. There's plenty to talk about around unexpected escalation around Ukraine, Taiwan, Gaza, and so on without adding that.

What exactly does unexpected escalation around Ukraine mean in this context? There already is a war there.

Well, for example, the possibility of a Russian missile hitting something important in a neighboring NATO allied country.

Re: Are we heading for World War Three?

#16

Post by CWuestefeld » Thu, Oct 12, 2023, 6:55 PM UTC

Having lived through Vietnam, Pol Pot, Munich Olympics, the height of the cold war and then the collapse of the Soviet Union and most Communism, Iranian hostages, Korean Air 007, any number of incidents in the middle east, more revolutions and coups in Africa than I can point to, bombings in Bali, Tianenmen Square, Falkland Islands, US invasions of Iraq, Grenada, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria and on and on....

Why would I think that current events are different in some fundamental way?

Re: Are we heading for World War Three?

#17

Post by eindiran » Thu, Oct 12, 2023, 7:09 PM UTC

Bjartr wrote: post #13

rcarr wrote: post #7

I'm of the opinion that we're probably at the midpoint of what future historians will consider the preliminary period. The Non-Western axis has been turning up the heat, there's been something like 8 or 9 coups in Africa since 2020 plus more coup attempts, there was the Myanmar coup in 2021 you've got troop build up along the Serbia-Kosovo border, you've got fighting again in Azerbaijan and Armenia, and now Israel an…

How does the rate of conflict in those places compare to the past few decades? I have no context to evaluate if 8 coups in Africa since 2020 is high relative to history.

Legitimate question, not trying to be snarky, is this not self-evident to you? The fighting in Donbass eventually leading to a hot war between Ukraine and Russia doesn't seem like a step up in the fighting? Israel dropping enough JDAMs into the Gaza strip to turn Khan Yunis into crunchy sand doesn't feel like things are getting worse? The political situation in the Black Sea feels like it has slowly but surely gotten more tense, the sites of the Yugoslav wars are heating up...

Re: Are we heading for World War Three?

#18

Post by euroderf » Thu, Oct 12, 2023, 7:10 PM UTC

daft_pink wrote: post #12

It certainly feels like we are headed to an armed confrontation with a state armed with nuclear weapons. I doubt we will truly fight over Taiwan and the USA is bluffing and North Korea isn’t going to start a fight, but I think Iran or Russia or Russian proxies could easily devolve into all out war.

In the US, JCS chief Milley and some other guy (SecDef?) made a deal between them - and informed underlings - that if Trump reaches for nukes, nothing is released without the okay of one of them.

I wonder if there is a similar firewall of sanity between Putin and nukes. I mean, at some point he's goin' down. Isn't he?

Re: Are we heading for World War Three?

#19

Post by hackerbeat » Thu, Oct 12, 2023, 7:12 PM UTC

swatcoder wrote: post #4

morphicpro wrote: post #2

It's already started and no one even cares.

I mean, if open military conflict starts between major powers historians will absolutely point to current events as the sizzling fuse. But that open conflict has not started yet and current flareups may still resolve (they aren’t the first), so no not really. It hasn’t started until it’s started.

Nah, it’s already started.

Re: Are we heading for World War Three?

#20

Post by tut-urut-utut » Thu, Oct 12, 2023, 7:32 PM UTC

CWuestefeld wrote: post #16

Having lived through Vietnam, Pol Pot, Munich Olympics, the height of the cold war and then the collapse of the Soviet Union and most Communism, Iranian hostages, Korean Air 007, any number of incidents in the middle east, more revolutions and coups in Africa than I can point to, bombings in Bali, Tianenmen Square, Falkland Islands, US invasions of Iraq, Grenada, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria and on and on.... Why would…

> Why would I think that current events are different in some fundamental way?

They are different in a sense US Empire and its vassals are starting to lose wars and influence, so westerners started noticing these events as negative. Previously, they didn’t care.