The Era of Startups Is Over • Hacker News Board

Re: The Era of Startups Is Over

#11

Post by vonnik » Sun, Oct 08, 2023, 6:39 PM UTC

Shallow ahistorical analysis.

Apple and Microsoft were born in the oil shocks of the late 70s and survived Volcker’s high rates through the early 80s.

Google barely took off before the tech crash wiped out the Valley in 2001.

Many companies we use today were young and dicey affairs during the 2008-2009 financial crash.

Just because the bloom is off the rose, and both VCs and financial tourists like Tiger are overfunding fewer ideas, doesn’t mean the fundamental engine of innovation leading to huge companies is dead.

Quite the contrary. The engine is still ticking, but there is less noise.

Re: The Era of Startups Is Over

#12

Post by [deleted] » Sun, Oct 08, 2023, 6:39 PM UTC

[deleted]

Re: The Era of Startups Is Over

#13

Post by e10jc » Sun, Oct 08, 2023, 6:46 PM UTC

I agree with the vibe of this article. The difference between today versus historical periods of high interest rates is that today there are multiple mature billion/trillion-dollar tech companies, and also a huge population of entrepreneurs who have either tried your idea already, or are in a better position to execute your idea than you.

Re: The Era of Startups Is Over

#14

Post by Bubbadoo99 » Sun, Oct 08, 2023, 6:46 PM UTC

If I had a dollar for every time someone comes out with dire predictions for startups or the greater economy, I'd be proverbally rich. 1987, 1989, 1993, 1998, 2001, 2007, 2012... 202x... All years during which a 'correction' occurred. In 2001, the intertubes imploded during the internet crash. But it was anything but fatal, despite two of every three startups failing.

When GDP is so high, it creates a momentum that does help every sector. One thing that would help would be an administration that is pro-business and doesn't pick winners and losers. Maybe leadership that has an idea of what economic theory means.

Re: The Era of Startups Is Over

#15

Post by throwaway5959 » Sun, Oct 08, 2023, 6:49 PM UTC

Anyone who mentions Ray Dalio in a positive way can be immediately disregarded. I read the whole thing and didn’t see anything insightful.

Re: The Era of Startups Is Over

#16

Post by michaeljx » Sun, Oct 08, 2023, 6:49 PM UTC

vagab0nd wrote: post #9

michaeljx wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I ve been bootstrapping a one-man tech company my self, and with 100usd/month I have the following facilities: managed db with weekly backups, managed kubernetes with autoscaling(DO), ci/cd (GitHub + self hosted runners), VPN meshing (tailscale), and a bunch of other open source tools (airflow, selenium, etc). This would have required an entire IT department only 5-7 years ago

If it's easy for you, it's easy for your competitors too. IMHO, how easy it is to start a startup is dictated by the competition, not the accessibility of the underlying technology. The tech is always the state of the art at the current time. But that doesn't have any bearing on markets, resources, hiring, etc.

I agree but with a different frame of reference. How easy it is to start a startup is not dictated by how easy it is for your competitors to start one, but by how big of a moat the incumbents have. With all these tools available to me now, that moat is becoming smaller and smaller

Re: The Era of Startups Is Over

#17

Post by vemv » Sun, Oct 08, 2023, 6:50 PM UTC

New rule of thumb: if some article's background is #000000 (absolute black), expect the content to be similarly lacking in subtlety and accuracy.

Re: The Era of Startups Is Over

#18

Post by cracrecry » Sun, Oct 08, 2023, 6:53 PM UTC

It is not the End of Startups. It is the end of "free Money" from boomers savings, that now are retiring and need the money.

Startups will have to be profitable and auto finance themselves, like it has been normal for companies in the past.

They will need to find a way to create value and survive sooner. It will make for smaller and slower growth companies but also more stable.

Re: The Era of Startups Is Over

#19

Post by midnitewarrior » Sun, Oct 08, 2023, 6:53 PM UTC

anotherhue wrote: post #2

Contrariwise, it's never been easier to bootstrap a solo or Given the profound malinvestment and market distortions groups like SoftBank/WeWork and FTX/Theranos/AirBnB/A16Z have created I frankly say good riddance.

Cheap money is over.

If you don't need money, like a bootstrap, the odds are in your favor.

If you are a startup that hasn't quite made a name for itself yet and the coffers are getting low and it's time for another round of funding, you're going to have a rough time.

Re: The Era of Startups Is Over

#20

Post by freitzkriesler2 » Sun, Oct 08, 2023, 6:54 PM UTC

Animats wrote: post #8

That's just an intro. I was expecting to scroll down to graphs of startup rates and VC returns. But no. He just makes the statement with no backup. So, is this a legit claim?

General thesis is cream always rises to the top even in high interest rate environments. Crappy, pointless startups will struggle and wither without the easy credit spigot.

So yeah, it's legit and always has been.