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Modeling transformational policy pathways on low and negative growth scenarios

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Re: Modeling transformational policy pathways on low and negative growth scenarios

#11

Post by semi-extrinsic »

RandomLensman wrote: post #6
abdullahkhalids wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> whom they propose to give that power of appropriation, and why they trust them to use it wisely. Existing state structures, through taxes/subsidies/government expenditure/laws/regulations, already redistribute wealth from some socioeconomic classes to others. These structures are to certain extent decided by elected officials and somewhat by other big players (eg. bank regulations on overdrafting). Degrowthers are…

European democratic socialism very much has a growth focus, very unclear what a degrowth variant would look like.

It's less that European democratic socialism has a growth focus, and more that the entire global financial system is built on the fundamental assumption of continuous growth.

In the presence of degrowth, what would a reasonable inflation target be for the central bank? What should the interest rate be? Should the government issue more debt? Under what circumstances should individuals or companies be eligible for incurring debt?

AFAIK, all of these questions don't have good answers so far, whether you are a capitalistic or a socialistic nation.

Re: Modeling transformational policy pathways on low and negative growth scenarios

#12

Post by baq »

vonnik wrote: post #3

Any time someone advocates for massive redistribution, as degrowth does, ask to whom they propose to give that power of appropriation, and why they trust them to use it wisely. What differentiates redistributive degrowth from certain forms of socialism? Did those forms of socialism create just societies or enact massive violence against humans and nature? If one or more countries opt out of redistributive degrowth in…

The problem with economic contraction is that it is inevitable. You won’t hear this from economists, but ask any physicist about exponential growth.

The question is what terms will the contraction happen on. It can be engineered, or it can be a surprise. I’m convinced most engineered scenarios are overall more desirable than an unexpected collapse.

There’s one scenario where contraction doesn’t have to happen - that’s where exponential growth stops. Maybe stagflation is the best outcome.

Re: Modeling transformational policy pathways on low and negative growth scenarios

#13

Post by RandomLensman »

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #11
RandomLensman wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

European democratic socialism very much has a growth focus, very unclear what a degrowth variant would look like.

It's less that European democratic socialism has a growth focus, and more that the entire global financial system is built on the fundamental assumption of continuous growth. In the presence of degrowth, what would a reasonable inflation target be for the central bank? What should the interest rate be? Should the government issue more debt? Under what circumstances should individuals or companies be eligible for incu…

As a policy it has its origins in improvement of sorts for large sections of the population - definitely it never advocated degrowth in its origins which predate the current financial system.

Re: Modeling transformational policy pathways on low and negative growth scenarios

#14

Post by peepeepoopoo41 »

baq wrote: post #12
vonnik wrote: post #3

Any time someone advocates for massive redistribution, as degrowth does, ask to whom they propose to give that power of appropriation, and why they trust them to use it wisely. What differentiates redistributive degrowth from certain forms of socialism? Did those forms of socialism create just societies or enact massive violence against humans and nature? If one or more countries opt out of redistributive degrowth in…

The problem with economic contraction is that it is inevitable. You won’t hear this from economists, but ask any physicist about exponential growth. The question is what terms will the contraction happen on. It can be engineered, or it can be a surprise. I’m convinced most engineered scenarios are overall more desirable than an unexpected collapse. There’s one scenario where contraction doesn’t have to happen - that’…

> The problem with economic contraction is that it is inevitable. You won’t hear this from economists, but ask any physicist about exponential growth.

Could you please provide some suggested reading about how we've exhausted the entire universe's resources? I seem to be out of the loop.

Re: Modeling transformational policy pathways on low and negative growth scenarios

#15

Post by ramblenode »

peepeepoopoo41 wrote: post #14
baq wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with economic contraction is that it is inevitable. You won’t hear this from economists, but ask any physicist about exponential growth. The question is what terms will the contraction happen on. It can be engineered, or it can be a surprise. I’m convinced most engineered scenarios are overall more desirable than an unexpected collapse. There’s one scenario where contraction doesn’t have to happen - that’…

> The problem with economic contraction is that it is inevitable. You won’t hear this from economists, but ask any physicist about exponential growth. Could you please provide some suggested reading about how we've exhausted the entire universe's resources? I seem to be out of the loop.

Here is one place to start: https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist...

> Alright, the Earth has only one mechanism for releasing heat to space, and that’s via (infrared) radiation. We understand the phenomenon perfectly well, and can predict the surface temperature of the planet as a function of how much energy the human race produces. The upshot is that at a 2.3% growth rate (conveniently chosen to represent a 10× increase every century), we would reach boiling temperature in about 400 years. [Pained expression from economist.] And this statement is independent of technology. Even if we don’t have a name for the energy source yet, as long as it obeys thermodynamics, we cook ourselves with perpetual energy increase.

Re: Modeling transformational policy pathways on low and negative growth scenarios

#16

Post by peepeepoopoo41 »

ramblenode wrote: post #15
peepeepoopoo41 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The problem with economic contraction is that it is inevitable. You won’t hear this from economists, but ask any physicist about exponential growth. Could you please provide some suggested reading about how we've exhausted the entire universe's resources? I seem to be out of the loop.

Here is one place to start: https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist... > Alright, the Earth has only one mechanism for releasing heat to space, and that’s via (infrared) radiation. We understand the phenomenon perfectly well, and can predict the surface temperature of the planet as a function of how much energy the human race produces. The upshot is that at a 2.3% growth rate (conveniently chosen…

Can you please cite some additional sources that planet earth is also the maximum extent of the observable universe?

Re: Modeling transformational policy pathways on low and negative growth scenarios

#17

Post by msm_ »

ramblenode wrote: post #15
peepeepoopoo41 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The problem with economic contraction is that it is inevitable. You won’t hear this from economists, but ask any physicist about exponential growth. Could you please provide some suggested reading about how we've exhausted the entire universe's resources? I seem to be out of the loop.

Here is one place to start: https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist... > Alright, the Earth has only one mechanism for releasing heat to space, and that’s via (infrared) radiation. We understand the phenomenon perfectly well, and can predict the surface temperature of the planet as a function of how much energy the human race produces. The upshot is that at a 2.3% growth rate (conveniently chosen…

Is there any reason why (in theory) we can't release heat to space in some other way? I can think of many (imaginary) ways of releasing space, for example shooting superheated materials to space, maybe some planet-scale laser-powered heat pump or radiator [1]. I realise such solutions (in general, please don't focus on my examples) are not currently possible and very far from what we can do, but there's no physical reasons we can't invent them during the next 300 years, right?
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