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Spain’s Lessons for American Decline

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11–20 of 77 posts

Re: Spain’s Lessons for American Decline

#11
post #8

> But the most revealing parallels relate to a different expansionary dynamic—that of money. The key to so much else that happened to both countries was the appearance of what seemed like unlimited wealth but was actually access to unlimited quantities of a universal medium of exchange, craved and accepted everywhere. If you can’t tell the difference between stealing a bunch of gold in a gold based economy and the US…

> People care about the US Dollar because of the backing of the United States and its military Corrected that for you.

[deleted]

Re: Spain’s Lessons for American Decline

#12
post #9

It's not an unfair assessment, marred by an identity-related political snark coming out of nowhere at about 80%. Spain really did squander its wealth. There are also differences, of course. Spain was a real monarchy, although much of the power actually lay in the hands of one royal adviser. In case of Spain's 17th century decline, that was Olivares. But the downfall was not only overspending on warfare, but also pers…

you miss the core point that infrastructure changes were blocked by the same elite-ism of not paying attention to the in-equality in the labor ranks due to over taxation and other ills.

It is political in nature due to the political processes that have a hold on whether and how it might change.

Re: Spain’s Lessons for American Decline

#13
Beautifully polymathic. We're not so much watching the harbringers, but into the phase of comparing competing theories of decline. I can't see whether his sympathy for Keynes and Carter are necessary conditions for the rest of his thesis, but the demolition of the domestic market and the installation of an affected managerial class who weren't elites in any meaningful way in both Spain and the present certainly rhyme.

Re: Spain’s Lessons for American Decline

#14
A few bones to pick:

1. It's been known for decades that it's essentially impossible to not run a trade deifict with a reserve currency. It's called the Triffin Dilemma [1];

2. The US Dollar is unlike gold in that you can create it out of thin air at any point. Many gold bugs and Crypto Andys (who are usually the same people) have a problem with this. This isn't actually a problem because the notion of "value" is completely made up anyway;

3. What backs the value of the US dollar is the long dick of the American military. Just look at all the wars the US has been involved in [2];

4. Colonies often turned into a drain on the colonizer's economy even with all th eexploitation (ie outright theft) going on. The costs of holding a colony only go up as the locals (rightly) become increasingly unhappy about the situation.

There's an interesting parallel with the Roman world here. Carthage, for example, used the common system at the time of tribute for its holdings. Rome, on the other hand, used a system of military alliances that tied the colony to Rome in a much more stable way. Some of Rome's colonies were colonies for a thousand years and became so Roman that even when conquered the conquerors became more Roman than the other way around.

5. The US has largely avoided the colony drain problem with economic imperialism. For example, the US now uses child labor in West Africa through intermediaries [3];

6. One cannot overstate the importance of slavery to American economic development and power. To be cleaer, slavery has never really gone away. It still exists in the form of prison labor (ie convict leasing). You could argue that the reason the US is the most incarcerated nation in the world (ie 4% of the world's population, 25% of the world's prisoners) is driven by economic exploitation more than anything else.

If you didn't get to the end, there's a bizarre conservative screed at the end:

> [The American ruling class] can no longer tell you what a woman is, and has gone to great lengths to censor and suppress stories—the Hunter Biden laptop, the Wuhan lab leak—it later acknowledged to be true or plausible. The same elite ties itself into absurd knots to deny the fact that it seeks to establish a system of racial quotas in education, government, and business.

So, transphobia, conspiracy theories and complaints about anti-white racism (which is not real, by definition). I'm not sure how any of this is relevant to a comparison between the Spanish and American empires.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma

[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_the_Uni...

[3]: https://www.dol.gov/agencies/ilab/our-work/child-forced-labo...

Re: Spain’s Lessons for American Decline

#15
post #8

> But the most revealing parallels relate to a different expansionary dynamic—that of money. The key to so much else that happened to both countries was the appearance of what seemed like unlimited wealth but was actually access to unlimited quantities of a universal medium of exchange, craved and accepted everywhere. If you can’t tell the difference between stealing a bunch of gold in a gold based economy and the US…

> People care about the US Dollar because of the backing of the United States and its military Corrected that for you.

The backing implies the military. A strong military is necessary for any independent, thriving state.

The USA economy is the most dynamic and powerful in the world by a large margin. People want their wealth backed by this and will pay a premium for the right.

Re: Spain’s Lessons for American Decline

#16
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not exactly because gold has an intrinsic value.

> Not exactly because gold has an intrinsic value. Gold has zero intrinsic value. Like all forms of money, its value is a psychological and sociological construct to treat it as if it had value. The Incas for example simply used it for religious and ornamental purposes: * https://www.tourinperu.com/blog/inca-gold-culture-invasion-r... Anything can be used as money, including giant rocks: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wi…

Gold is the only currency that kept it's value through time.

There's a reason people buy gold. 1kg of Argentinian gold has the same value as 1kg of American gold. And both have the same value as 1kg of gold from any ancient civilization. Big rocks as currency is purely anecdotic.

Of course, if you're in the desert and you're thirsty, a bottle of water has more value to you than all the gold in the world, but that doesn't change the fact that through millennia people has seen gold as something valuable that it's not tied to an economy, a country, an empire or even a culture despite de Incas.

Re: Spain’s Lessons for American Decline

#17
post #14

A few bones to pick: 1. It's been known for decades that it's essentially impossible to not run a trade deifict with a reserve currency. It's called the Triffin Dilemma [1]; 2. The US Dollar is unlike gold in that you can create it out of thin air at any point. Many gold bugs and Crypto Andys (who are usually the same people) have a problem with this. This isn't actually a problem because the notion of "value" is com…

> 6. One cannot overstate the importance of slavery to American economic development and power.

Doubt. The economic decline of the American south was well on its way by the 19th century. That some prisoners today make license plates has no material affect on US GDP - this claim needs sources.

Re: Spain’s Lessons for American Decline

#18
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With enough gold mines under your control, you are essentially printing money.

Not exactly because gold has an intrinsic value.

What intrinsic value? It's shiny and rare, valuable for the same reason BitCoin is. The industrial usage of gold is limited to niche uses.

The Spanish price revolution crippled the Spanish state due to the huge inflation driven by New World treasure fleets. Gold is nothing special here.

Re: Spain’s Lessons for American Decline

#19

> But the most revealing parallels relate to a different expansionary dynamic—that of money. The key to so much else that happened to both countries was the appearance of what seemed like unlimited wealth but was actually access to unlimited quantities of a universal medium of exchange, craved and accepted everywhere. If you can’t tell the difference between stealing a bunch of gold in a gold based economy and the US…

> People care about the US Dollar because of the backing of the United States and its economy.

Really? Or is it that oil is purchased in dollars? There's no other reason to find it useful over say the Euro (for example).

Re: Spain’s Lessons for American Decline

#20
post #17
post #14

A few bones to pick: 1. It's been known for decades that it's essentially impossible to not run a trade deifict with a reserve currency. It's called the Triffin Dilemma [1]; 2. The US Dollar is unlike gold in that you can create it out of thin air at any point. Many gold bugs and Crypto Andys (who are usually the same people) have a problem with this. This isn't actually a problem because the notion of "value" is com…

> 6. One cannot overstate the importance of slavery to American economic development and power. Doubt. The economic decline of the American south was well on its way by the 19th century. That some prisoners today make license plates has no material affect on US GDP - this claim needs sources.

There’s a parallel in beasts of burden. Do some smallholders use them? Yes. Are they economical? No. Mechanization undercut the value proposition of slave labor and beasts of burden due to the costs of upkeep and their nature of needing rest and recuperation. With slaves you also had to have a an infrastructure to keep them from escaping -also true for animals but keeping animals corralled is cheap.
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