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Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

japantimes.co.jp

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Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#11

Post by zpeti »

Qem wrote: post #6

That means about 1/3 of male population may never have any of them as well. What haunts me most is to ponder about the world we get when a lot these 18 years old become 75+ years old people with no close living relatives and their social support network mostly gone before themselves. A world of single or no children also leaves people with no uncles, aunts or cousins.

It’s worse than that. Historically only 50% of men reproduced, and that hasn’t gotten much better. There are plenty of divorced men with more than one family, yet this is rarer for women.

I’d estimate if 30% of women aren’t having children at least 50-60% of men won’t. God knows what kind of issues that will cause.

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#12

Post by A_D_E_P_T »

These threads pop up here just about every other day.

It's not just Japan, though the media seems fixated on Japan to an unusual extent.

Here are some 2023 TFR estimates, source: CIA.

Japan: 1.39. Poland: 1.41. Spain: 1.29. South Korea: 1.1. Taiwan: 1.09. China: 1.45. Canada: 1.57. Germany: 1.58. UK: 1.63. Cuba: 1.71. USA: 1.85.

Italy: 1.24. This is noteworthy as Italy has been under replacement TFR for nearly 50 years. (Since 1975.)

Hungary: 1.49. Despite best efforts.

Just about every developed country on Earth is presently experiencing sub-replacement TFR, and a handful of large countries are worse-off than Japan, or in comparable positions.

Why all of the articles about Japan, when the situation in Italy is more dire? Go figure.

What is to be done? What's clear is that only radical solutions have any chance at working.

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#13

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

I'd also note that plummeting birthrates are also happening in countries that are known for great social welfare, lots of government support for new mothers, and a more egalitarian society overall, like Finland.

A lot of people simply don't want kids. Kids take a huge amount of time and investment for about 2 decades of one's life, and that can have a large, significant negative impact on quality of life, especially in urban areas. Between birth control and lots of other avenues for women to spend there time, it's not that surprising that you always see plummeting birthrates whenever a society urbanized and moves up the economic ladder.

Some people want kids. Many simply do not.

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#14

Post by logicchains »

DrThunder wrote: post #2

I feel like the col is just an excuse for people that don't really want them anyway. Throughout history people have had children with very little material possessions. Talk to someone who went through the great depression about how you don't have enough money etc. to have kids. I think we've just brainwashed ourselves into believing you need to be ultra wealthy to give kids a good childhood. If you literally cannot a…

>Throughout history people have had children with very little material possessions. Talk to someone who went through the great depression about how you don't have enough money etc. to have kids.

Historically (and in very undeveloped countries today) kids were assets; they could work in the parents' farm or shop, clean the house, tend to the animals, etc. In modern culture parents get essentially nothing from kids in a financial sense, so there's much less monetary incentive to have children.

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#15

Post by throwaway22032 »

At least in the West, sexual liberation seems to have gone so far that a lot of people have lost sight of the fact that long term commitment is valuable in later life. Childbearing seems to be one aspect that's being pushed aside there, but it's far from being the only one.

Children have always thought that they'll be young forever, but the age at which that changes seems to be increasing.

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#16

Post by Blikkentrekker »

DrThunder wrote: post #2

I feel like the col is just an excuse for people that don't really want them anyway. Throughout history people have had children with very little material possessions. Talk to someone who went through the great depression about how you don't have enough money etc. to have kids. I think we've just brainwashed ourselves into believing you need to be ultra wealthy to give kids a good childhood. If you literally cannot a…

Why would people make up excuses? They simply don't want them.

My “excuse” for not having children is the same “excuse” I have for that I'm not a firefighter: I have no interest in it.

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#17

Post by orangepurple »

DrThunder wrote: post #2

I feel like the col is just an excuse for people that don't really want them anyway. Throughout history people have had children with very little material possessions. Talk to someone who went through the great depression about how you don't have enough money etc. to have kids. I think we've just brainwashed ourselves into believing you need to be ultra wealthy to give kids a good childhood. If you literally cannot a…

Agree that col is an excuse.

Exhibit A: Husband works for less than a dollar per day to buy food for wife and four kids: https://youtu.be/_9Eopzpa6QY?t=1476

Exhibit B: Abdala has two wives and two children and makes less about a dollar per day as a boat captain. https://youtu.be/_9Eopzpa6QY?t=541

Exhibit C: Huge families abound the community despite extreme poverty. https://youtu.be/_9Eopzpa6QY?t=1736

Exhibit D: Mother with two kids survives despite losing everything in a hurricane. Total net worth probably under $10. https://youtu.be/_9Eopzpa6QY?t=2080

Exhibit E: Me. I am poor and I have three kids.

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#18

Post by logicchains »

A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #12

These threads pop up here just about every other day. It's not just Japan, though the media seems fixated on Japan to an unusual extent. Here are some 2023 TFR estimates, source: CIA. Japan: 1.39. Poland: 1.41. Spain: 1.29. South Korea: 1.1. Taiwan: 1.09. China: 1.45. Canada: 1.57. Germany: 1.58. UK: 1.63. Cuba: 1.71. USA: 1.85. Italy: 1.24. This is noteworthy as Italy has been under replacement TFR for nearly 50 yea…

>Why all of the articles about Japan, when the situation in Italy is more dire? Go figure.

It's more dire in Japan because Japan has very restrictive immigration policies, so the decrease in working-age people there cannot be offset to some degree by immigration, unlike in western countries.

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#19

Post by edandersen »

A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #12

These threads pop up here just about every other day. It's not just Japan, though the media seems fixated on Japan to an unusual extent. Here are some 2023 TFR estimates, source: CIA. Japan: 1.39. Poland: 1.41. Spain: 1.29. South Korea: 1.1. Taiwan: 1.09. China: 1.45. Canada: 1.57. Germany: 1.58. UK: 1.63. Cuba: 1.71. USA: 1.85. Italy: 1.24. This is noteworthy as Italy has been under replacement TFR for nearly 50 yea…

Now do the TFR numbers for the "native" populations and you'll notice something quite interesting - that Japan is actually doing quite well.

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#20

Post by orangepurple »

zpeti wrote: post #7
DrThunder wrote: post #2

I feel like the col is just an excuse for people that don't really want them anyway. Throughout history people have had children with very little material possessions. Talk to someone who went through the great depression about how you don't have enough money etc. to have kids. I think we've just brainwashed ourselves into believing you need to be ultra wealthy to give kids a good childhood. If you literally cannot a…

I think this is a surface level explanation but there must be deeper reasons why people aren’t having children. Maybe our lives are so comfortable we just don’t want the inconvenience of children. Maybe we’re so obsessed with momentary hedonism that doing something extremely hard for 18 years doesn’t seem worth it. Maybe there are so many generational traumas built up over thousands of years that now that we have som…

I suspect many more are blisfully unaware of what will happen to them when they inevitably end up in a nursing home.

I'm not sure what you mean by generational traumas but if you mean what I think you mean they can be overcome. My grandparents vehemently hated certain specific ethnicities till the end because their brothers and sisters and parents were executed ("disappeared") by their soldiers and secret police. My parents are a product of being raised in their post-war hellhole. I was able to see past all that and grew up normally with friends local to my country. I suppose if my parents spoon fed me hate and persecution stories constantly I would develop some sort of PTSD.

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