The $ amount listed on 13F is NOT the premium value but rather the value of shares the position represents (100x multiplier)
Back out the 13F SPY value: $886mm/2mm = ~$443
He owns 20k SPY puts (2mm/100) likely worth $10's of millions
Michael Burry, of Big Short fame, just bet $1.6B on a stock market crash
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Re: Michael Burry, of Big Short fame, just bet $1.6B on a stock market crash
#12Apparently he did this a while ago its just hitting the news now. As they say, its hard to time the market and it can remain illogical longer than you remain solvent. But hey I dont know verify what I say too.
> it can remain illogical longer than you remain solvent I don't know the details in real life, but in the movie he was mildly early and losing money for a long time before the move started realizing. I and heard rumors that there were other players that were even earlier and had to close their positions before it realized in order to avoid going bankrupt. BRB buying the book.
The book is not accurate and in particular most of the traders fought the decision to put the short on and then took credit for it afterwards. I really don’t want to say anything further.
Source: I was there (working as a strat for Goldman in mortgages during the crisis).
Re: Michael Burry, of Big Short fame, just bet $1.6B on a stock market crash
#13The 13Fs are filed quarterly so there’s always a lag. AFAIK he spent 2% of the fund AUM on these so downside pretty capped, it’s an asymmetric bet on indices heading lower.
Anyone know what strike price / expiration date on the puts?
Re: Michael Burry, of Big Short fame, just bet $1.6B on a stock market crash
#14Earlier quoted context omitted.
> it can remain illogical longer than you remain solvent I don't know the details in real life, but in the movie he was mildly early and losing money for a long time before the move started realizing. I and heard rumors that there were other players that were even earlier and had to close their positions before it realized in order to avoid going bankrupt. BRB buying the book.
The book is not accurate and in particular most of the traders fought the decision to put the short on and then took credit for it afterwards. I really don’t want to say anything further. Source: I was there (working as a strat for Goldman in mortgages during the crisis).
Who fought to put it on then?
Re: Michael Burry, of Big Short fame, just bet $1.6B on a stock market crash
#15Earlier quoted context omitted.
The book is not accurate and in particular most of the traders fought the decision to put the short on and then took credit for it afterwards. I really don’t want to say anything further. Source: I was there (working as a strat for Goldman in mortgages during the crisis).
Who fought to put it on then?
The people concerned haven't fought to put themselves in the spotlight so I'm assuming they would prefer to remain in the background. On that basis I'm not going to out them.
Re: Michael Burry, of Big Short fame, just bet $1.6B on a stock market crash
#16Earlier quoted context omitted.
You are right. I'm one that believes that the market will continue its downturn for a few more weeks but there's no way I would bet 80% of my portfolio even if I was 99.99% sure of a downturn. I know better and I'm an amateur. Burry is a professional, he knows better than to be so reckless. The news article is just reporting nonsense. With options it's easy to lose it all even if ultimately you were right since optio…
He's also basically shorting S&P and Nasdaq ETFs - $1.8billion is a blip against these, like throwing a pebble at an oil tanker...yet the article seems to have an air about it like the very presence of this man and this money is enough to help precipitate his expected downturn. The market does seem overpriced at the moment, particularly stocks like Nvidia undergoing some kind of correction, but it seems that the medi…
The covid shock was managed because almost every government switched to expansionary fiscal and monetary policy to keep unemployment down. Interest rates have gone up massively, and Covid relief payments have dried up.
Re: Michael Burry, of Big Short fame, just bet $1.6B on a stock market crash
#17Earlier quoted context omitted.
> it can remain illogical longer than you remain solvent I don't know the details in real life, but in the movie he was mildly early and losing money for a long time before the move started realizing. I and heard rumors that there were other players that were even earlier and had to close their positions before it realized in order to avoid going bankrupt. BRB buying the book.
The book is not accurate and in particular most of the traders fought the decision to put the short on and then took credit for it afterwards. I really don’t want to say anything further. Source: I was there (working as a strat for Goldman in mortgages during the crisis).
The movie was outright wrong in some other details that seemed to contradict congressional testimony / public knowledge of 2008 as well.
Movie was a movie. It bothers me that the attention span of Americans is so short that they can't be bothered to look up the known and public facts of 2008 before making opinions on it.
Re: Michael Burry, of Big Short fame, just bet $1.6B on a stock market crash
#18The bet against market from someone like him is bot unusual, but the size of the bet: 80% of his portfolio?
It isn’t. CNN and many others have awful financial literacy and reporting standards. The 13F notional value calculations are horrendous. There is simply no way of knowing how big of a bet it is, but I can all but guarantee that it isn’t remotely close to 80% of his portfolio.
This headline has been making the rounds. Super bearish news from the “Big Short” guy sells headlines.
This reminds me of the Litecoin / Walmart news where someone paid a journalist to report a bs headline. But at a larger scale.
Re: Michael Burry, of Big Short fame, just bet $1.6B on a stock market crash
#19Earlier quoted context omitted.
> it can remain illogical longer than you remain solvent I don't know the details in real life, but in the movie he was mildly early and losing money for a long time before the move started realizing. I and heard rumors that there were other players that were even earlier and had to close their positions before it realized in order to avoid going bankrupt. BRB buying the book.
The book is not accurate and in particular most of the traders fought the decision to put the short on and then took credit for it afterwards. I really don’t want to say anything further. Source: I was there (working as a strat for Goldman in mortgages during the crisis).
Thanks for the comment I always suspect things like this occur often
Re: Michael Burry, of Big Short fame, just bet $1.6B on a stock market crash
#20Overall, Burry / Scion bought 27 new stocks and sold 15 stocks when compared to their previous quarter's holdings[1]. This can be hard to see on the SEC.gov filing CNN directly links to since that only shows one quarter of holdings.