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A Really Big Computer

geohot.github.io

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Re: A Really Big Computer

#11

Post by leblancfg »

rg111 wrote: post #8
leblancfg wrote: post #7

I will refer to this as the moment when LLM hype jumped the shark.

AI is not just LLMs. As I keep mentioning on HN. AI is real results + hype as opposed to crypto of only hype. A computer of this size will be immensely useful for training Vision models very quickly, as well as other kinds of models. Why only AI? Any branch of Science (all of them) that benefit from fast, parallel compute, will benefit from this. It is extremely narrow view to view AI only as LLMs. When I say "real u…

My comment is about how this man is seriously entertaining a 2B$ valuation for this napkin math, with no experience in the 4/5 different industries his plan entails – and sharing no definite plans of what to do with it except "be able to train GPT4 in a day". It is about prevailing market forces in VC that let him believe this plan might actually work.

It doesn't have anything to do with crypto, science, or Real World Problems.

Re: A Really Big Computer

#12

Post by [deleted] »

leblancfg wrote: post #11
rg111 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI is not just LLMs. As I keep mentioning on HN. AI is real results + hype as opposed to crypto of only hype. A computer of this size will be immensely useful for training Vision models very quickly, as well as other kinds of models. Why only AI? Any branch of Science (all of them) that benefit from fast, parallel compute, will benefit from this. It is extremely narrow view to view AI only as LLMs. When I say "real u…

My comment is about how this man is seriously entertaining a 2B$ valuation for this napkin math, with no experience in the 4/5 different industries his plan entails – and sharing no definite plans of what to do with it except "be able to train GPT4 in a day". It is about prevailing market forces in VC that let him believe this plan might actually work. It doesn't have anything to do with crypto, science, or Real Worl…

[deleted]

Re: A Really Big Computer

#14

Post by 20wenty »

Say what you want about him, but George is one of the few people I know that can actually go a mile wide and a mile deep into any field they choose. And he does most of his digging live on stream, so he makes an easy punching bag. Do I think he'll successfully raise a $400M round on a $2B valuation? No, something else will distract him before that - but I'm going to enjoy watching him (and pulling for him) regardless.

Re: A Really Big Computer

#16

Post by w10-1 »

Brainstorming can help identify limiting assumptions.

Mostly compute has piggy-backed off consumer-scale production (e.g., GPU's repurposed for crypto).

The suggestion is that an AI model can justify few-shot chip production.

His proposal is for development, i.e., to build the model, and depends mostly on such models being qualitatively better.

It seems more likely that chips would be built to offer model processing, instead of forcing users into a service (with its risk of confidentiality and IP leaks). To get GPT-100, you'd incorporate the chip into your device -- and then know for sure that nothing could leak. That eliminates the primary transaction cost for AI compute: the risk.

Which presents the question: does anyone know of research or companies working on such chip models?

Re: A Really Big Computer

#17

Post by aziaziazi »

cushychicken wrote: post #13
petesoper wrote: post #10

How does he cool those wafers?

“Put the servers somewhere cool.” No joke. That’s his plan.

Let's build it on the crest of a lunar crater. Wafers on the shade side and solar panels on the sunny one. “Just” add some $Bs to send the stuff up in the space.

Re: A Really Big Computer

#18

Post by late2part »

20wenty wrote: post #14

Say what you want about him, but George is one of the few people I know that can actually go a mile wide and a mile deep into any field they choose. And he does most of his digging live on stream, so he makes an easy punching bag. Do I think he'll successfully raise a $400M round on a $2B valuation? No, something else will distract him before that - but I'm going to enjoy watching him (and pulling for him) regardless…

Feeling cute, may make up bullshit then change my mind.

Re: A Really Big Computer

#19

Post by SomeHacker44 »

rg111 wrote: post #9
gary_0 wrote: post #5

He doesn't mention yield, which I hear is currently pretty bad on 3nm. And "just route around the bad silicon" might be easier said than done; widespread defects might create too many roadblocks to efficiently move data around your wafer-chip. If that's not factored into his 3450 wafer estimate, it could be double that.

This was my first thought reading this article. I am not an expert and my knowledge is limited. When he mentions the prices of the wafers, does it come with the bad yields or without?

A knowledgable friend recently told me the wafer price is, you get what you get. This was in reference to a recent Apple story that TSMC was giving Apple a discount for bad dies, or something like that, on the 3nm node. I have no references.

Re: A Really Big Computer

#20

Post by wolrah »

aziaziazi wrote: post #17
cushychicken wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Put the servers somewhere cool.” No joke. That’s his plan.

Let's build it on the crest of a lunar crater. Wafers on the shade side and solar panels on the sunny one. “Just” add some $Bs to send the stuff up in the space.

Shaded or not, cooling is actually a problem in space because radiating heat in to a "vacuum" is hard. Even a warm atmosphere is easier to transfer heat to than almost nothing.

Now a ground source heat pump could be interesting as long as it's not too hard to drill for the plumbing.

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