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Lessons learned from a failed poker software business

mattmazur.com

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Re: Lessons learned from a failed poker software business

#11

Post by matt1 »

jd wrote: post #8
matt1 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good point. I added a bit of clarification to the article since it did read like the one post was the only thing I did. After it launched I decided that the best way to demonstrate its utility was to search poker forums for problems and then post the ALL IN Expert results. I wound up adding a feature to the software that let people export the results in a forum-friendly format which also linked back to the site. This…

Were you aware of the existing (and immensely popular) free tools when you started programming? If so, what was going to be your edge?

I assume you're talking about PokerStove, no? I happily used it for a long time, but felt it could use some improvement. For example, you can't weigh the hands in your opponent's range (that is, saying KK is half as likely as AA). Also, PokerStove is great for calculating equity, but not so much for calculating EV. To calculate your EV when you call is pretty easy (EV = equity * new_pot - to_call), but to calculate your shove EV takes a bit of work. My aim with ALL IN expert was to make those things trivially easy to do. Eventually I had planned on doing postflop calculations as well (the first iteration only had preflop), but as I mentioned elsewhere I just didn't see it being worth the investment in time for a project that didn't have much of a future.

Re: Lessons learned from a failed poker software business

#12

Post by matt1 »

Tichy wrote: post #10
matt1 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good point. I added a bit of clarification to the article since it did read like the one post was the only thing I did. After it launched I decided that the best way to demonstrate its utility was to search poker forums for problems and then post the ALL IN Expert results. I wound up adding a feature to the software that let people export the results in a forum-friendly format which also linked back to the site. This…

Not saying that it would have been successful, hard to say. But reading "Advertising is a tax for being unremarkable” seems a bit harsh. In some businesses, there simply is no other way. For example recently I heard from some online dating services that they really boil down to the hard calculation of "how expensive is it to convert a user we bought with advertising". Like if they raise their conversion rates, they c…

It's harsh, but I think there is merit to it. You can definitely succeed with a strong advertising campaign, but if your product is remarkable you'll be able to focus on it a lot less.

You're right that the poker industry does depend heavily on advertising. I imagine a big part of PokerStars and FullTilt's userbase discovered online poker after seeing a commercial during a rerun of the World Poker Tour.

I'm not sure how that translates into marketing a poker tool, but you (and the other posters) are right to say I could have done more.

Re: Lessons learned from a failed poker software business

#13

Post by jd »

matt1 wrote: post #11
jd wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Were you aware of the existing (and immensely popular) free tools when you started programming? If so, what was going to be your edge?

I assume you're talking about PokerStove, no? I happily used it for a long time, but felt it could use some improvement. For example, you can't weigh the hands in your opponent's range (that is, saying KK is half as likely as AA). Also, PokerStove is great for calculating equity, but not so much for calculating EV. To calculate your EV when you call is pretty easy (EV = equity * new_pot - to_call), but to calculate y…

Yup, pokerstove. I agree that weighted range calculations aren't so easy with pokerstove, but it's pretty easy to make a good estimate. Still, it's definitely useful, and a feature I expected to be in pokerstove the first time I used it.

Still, I don't get why you would focus on preflop calculations. Knowing whether to shove preflop is pretty easy, isn't it? The tough decisions are often when you face an overbet on the turn or river, in my experience.

Re: Lessons learned from a failed poker software business

#14

Post by matt1 »

jd wrote: post #6
mynameishere wrote: post #3

Does "estimating your opponent's hands" have any value? If you could do that with any certainty you probably don't need a calculator. EDIT: I realize that estimating your opponent's hands is important. Basic poker there. I'm talking about "estimating your opponent's hands" which is featured in one of the calculator's screens. That seems like an iffy thing to feed into a computer. It's a garbage-in-garbage-out situati…

Being able to figure out what kind of hand your opponent has is the difference between winning and losing poker. You usually make a guess based on previous behavior, how much aggression your opponent has shown so far, the position your opponent is in (acting first is a huge disadvantage) and so on. If you make no estimate what kind of hand your opponent has you can only reason in three ways: a) you assume he always h…

Great post

Re: Lessons learned from a failed poker software business

#15

Post by matt1 »

mynameishere wrote: post #3

Does "estimating your opponent's hands" have any value? If you could do that with any certainty you probably don't need a calculator. EDIT: I realize that estimating your opponent's hands is important. Basic poker there. I'm talking about "estimating your opponent's hands" which is featured in one of the calculator's screens. That seems like an iffy thing to feed into a computer. It's a garbage-in-garbage-out situati…

Different players think of different levels.

A beginner will primarily focus on what his own cards are. An intermediate will focus on what his opponent's cards are. A more advanced player will focus on what his opponent thinks his cards are and so on. The best players in the world are experts at figuring out which level you're thinking on so they can think one level beyond you.

Once you estimate your opponent's range based on his style, the cards, his previous actions, etc, you need to know what to do with that information. ALL IN Expert was designed to help with the second part.

Re: Lessons learned from a failed poker software business

#16

Post by matt1 »

jd wrote: post #13
matt1 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I assume you're talking about PokerStove, no? I happily used it for a long time, but felt it could use some improvement. For example, you can't weigh the hands in your opponent's range (that is, saying KK is half as likely as AA). Also, PokerStove is great for calculating equity, but not so much for calculating EV. To calculate your EV when you call is pretty easy (EV = equity * new_pot - to_call), but to calculate y…

Yup, pokerstove. I agree that weighted range calculations aren't so easy with pokerstove, but it's pretty easy to make a good estimate. Still, it's definitely useful, and a feature I expected to be in pokerstove the first time I used it. Still, I don't get why you would focus on preflop calculations. Knowing whether to shove preflop is pretty easy, isn't it? The tough decisions are often when you face an overbet on t…

The calculations are actually still done the same.

Preflop is easier to build an interface around, which is why I chose to focus on it for the first iteration. PokerStove's postflop range selection tool worked, but I felt it could have been done a lot better. For example, how would you select the range "A2s-ATs of hearts and clubs" using PokerStove? Making a clean way to select that would have been the next step for ALL IN Expert.

Re: Lessons learned from a failed poker software business

#17

Post by cabalamat »

Tichy wrote: post #10
matt1 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good point. I added a bit of clarification to the article since it did read like the one post was the only thing I did. After it launched I decided that the best way to demonstrate its utility was to search poker forums for problems and then post the ALL IN Expert results. I wound up adding a feature to the software that let people export the results in a forum-friendly format which also linked back to the site. This…

Not saying that it would have been successful, hard to say. But reading "Advertising is a tax for being unremarkable” seems a bit harsh. In some businesses, there simply is no other way. For example recently I heard from some online dating services that they really boil down to the hard calculation of "how expensive is it to convert a user we bought with advertising". Like if they raise their conversion rates, they c…

> In some businesses, there simply is no other way. For example recently I heard from some online dating services

I don't think advertising is necessary for an online dating service. For example, quite a few of my friends are on OK Cupid, and as far as I know they don't do much advertising.

"Advertising is a tax for being unremarkable" is a really succinct way of putting it.

Re: Lessons learned from a failed poker software business

#18

Post by halo »

I note that on the website there seems to be no real screenshots of your application in action that give me a good idea of what it does and how it works. In my opinion, this is a huge mistake - I generally won't download /anything/ unless I've seen a screenshot first.

Re: Lessons learned from a failed poker software business

#19

Post by matt1 »

halo wrote: post #18

I note that on the website there seems to be no real screenshots of your application in action that give me a good idea of what it does and how it works. In my opinion, this is a huge mistake - I generally won't download /anything/ unless I've seen a screenshot first.

You mean the little dinky gradient grid on the front page isn't enough? Just kidding -- thanks for the feedback.
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