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Ridiculous. Per this chart, the # of satellites has also gone up by a factor of 10 in that same 2 year time period from ~400 to ~4000. Maneuvers-per-satellite does not appear to be increasing, given available data.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Starlink_and_Starshiel...
It'll only take something like a starlink satellite punching a hole through the ISS for this to register or change anything ...
c.f. light pollution
The scaling isn't linear either. By setting the threshold 10x lower, SpaceX performs more than 10x as many maneuvers.
Essentially they're complaining because SpaceX is too cautious.
[0] https://www.space.com/starlink-satellite-conjunction-increas...
if they are basing avoidance on the known trajectory of other orbital objects, what happens when those object also manoeuvre?
Here's some of their Starlink data: https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?GROUP=starlin...
More on the TLE format from wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-line_element_set
Humans are like satellites in orbit ... inert. It'll only take something like a starlink satellite punching a hole through the ISS for this to register or change anything ... c.f. light pollution
It's important to note that Starlink satellites will maneuver when they calculate a 1-in-100,000 probability of collision.[0] Most other satellite operators will only maneuver when they predict a 1-in-10,000 chance. The scaling isn't linear either. By setting the threshold 10x lower, SpaceX performs more than 10x as many maneuvers. Essentially they're complaining because SpaceX is too cautious . [0] https://www.space…
It's important to note that Starlink satellites will maneuver when they calculate a 1-in-100,000 probability of collision.[0] Most other satellite operators will only maneuver when they predict a 1-in-10,000 chance. The scaling isn't linear either. By setting the threshold 10x lower, SpaceX performs more than 10x as many maneuvers. Essentially they're complaining because SpaceX is too cautious . [0] https://www.space…
Another thing is that Starlink is low enough that space junk spontaneously de-orbits relatively quickly. I think within ~10 years, all of the junk SpaceX is maneuvering around shouldn't be a concern to them any more.
The language in this article seems to be making more of this than it is… For example, “forced to swerve” is very different from “adjust course to avoid collision.” There are 4,000 starlink satellites with an eventual plan for 12-40k [0] so it seems reasonable to need to maneuver to avoid crashes. Satellites weren’t “forced to swerve” 25,000 times, they just changed their course. It would be like me describing my morn…
> There’s traffic in space. Is there? I mean obviously there are other satellites, but typically the framing has been that space and LEO is so big that it doesn't matter. That even with all the other satellites you typically don't need any sort of course correction except in very rare circumstances. Isn't the better analogy 'I used to never need to do any swerving at all on my morning commute, but now I need to do it…
You can filter to "Low Earth Orbit" and play at 100x speed to get an idea of how things are moving around. There's a lot of intersecting paths, a lot of them Starlink satellite trains.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Another thing is that Starlink is low enough that space junk spontaneously de-orbits relatively quickly. I think within ~10 years, all of the junk SpaceX is maneuvering around shouldn't be a concern to them any more.
As long as other satellites keep being launched into higher but not geosync orbits doesn't that provide a steady supply of junk to navigate around?
Sort of.
1. Modern satellites don't really shed junk - and almost all satellites today have to be launched with a plan to make sure that they deorbit in a timely manner. Doesn't always work out, but most are pretty safe.
2. For space junk, the time to deorbit increases super-linearly with orbital height. Which means that you are correct - stuff in higher orbits will slowly "fall" through the Starlink orbits on their way to Earth. But it's a very slow process which means there's really only a thin trickle of stuff falling from above.
What that means is that, Starlink will always have to avoid objects. But the bulk of the problem, which was caused by this[1] Russian anti-satellite missile strike will go away after a decade or so.
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