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Global heat in ‘uncharted territory’: 2023 could be the hottest year on record

cnn.com

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Re: Global heat in ‘uncharted territory’: 2023 could be the hottest year on record

#11

Post by goodbyesf »

colechristensen wrote: post #5

Not trying to deny anything but with the length of records and a random distribution you’d still expect “hottest year” to happen pretty often. (Somebody please do the statistics) With a very slightly warming planet it would indeed happen quite often. In other words… setting records means something, but less than one would expect by default. The more valid statistic is something like n of the last 30 years have been t…

They headlined it for emotional impact and clicks. People read "on record" and think it's the hottest the earth has been ever. When it's really 'the hottest' it's been the past few decades.

Also, depending on where and how you measure, it will naturally be 'hotter' because the world is getting more urbanized. And cities are artificially hotter.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/city-hotter-co...

Are they taking more measurements from the artificially warmer cities?

Re: Global heat in ‘uncharted territory’: 2023 could be the hottest year on record

#12

Post by claytongulick »

colechristensen wrote: post #5

Not trying to deny anything but with the length of records and a random distribution you’d still expect “hottest year” to happen pretty often. (Somebody please do the statistics) With a very slightly warming planet it would indeed happen quite often. In other words… setting records means something, but less than one would expect by default. The more valid statistic is something like n of the last 30 years have been t…

It's important to keep in mind that the sensationalism we see in this sort of reporting is generally far removed from the actual science.

Most of this stuff is built on models that are constantly being improved with more data, or in some cases being skewed to meet a predetermined desired outcome.

Re: Global heat in ‘uncharted territory’: 2023 could be the hottest year on record

#13

Post by thatfrenchguy »

MrVandemar wrote: post #10

After talking about it for thirty, forty years and not doing much more than feeling good about sorting our recycling, we're here at the tipping point. We need to not be talking about "climate change" anymore. We are here at "climate collapse".

We’re more at « global warming » than « climate collapse » right now for most ecosystems.

Re: Global heat in ‘uncharted territory’: 2023 could be the hottest year on record

#14

Post by ygjb »

thatfrenchguy wrote: post #13
MrVandemar wrote: post #10

After talking about it for thirty, forty years and not doing much more than feeling good about sorting our recycling, we're here at the tipping point. We need to not be talking about "climate change" anymore. We are here at "climate collapse".

We’re more at « global warming » than « climate collapse » right now for most ecosystems.

Right - global warming as a function of climate change, it's not the climate that is collapsing, it's the ecology that ~8 billion people depend on to survive that is collapsing :)

fiddles pedantically while the world burns

Re: Global heat in ‘uncharted territory’: 2023 could be the hottest year on record

#15

Post by ygjb »

DoreenMichele wrote: post #6

Rather than AC, which just deepens the problem by increasing our energy burn rate, we need more passive solar design. Plus more mixed-use, walkable neighborhoods. Also: Reduce upholstered furniture, books and similar, take trash out more regularly, remove all cardboard from groceries as soon as you get them home.

There is nothing that individual consumers can do that will change this. Policy is needed at a national and international level.

Re: Global heat in ‘uncharted territory’: 2023 could be the hottest year on record

#16

Post by toomuchtodo »

joe__f wrote: post #4
jacooper wrote: post #3

More news at 11. Also get ready to start installing air conditioning in your home.

I saw an article the other day that we've got coal power stations on standby in the UK to power all the new air conditioning units

There is one coal fired plant remaining in the UK (Ratcliffe-on-Soar), roughly 1.5GW total capacity. A substantial portion of UK electricity consumption is now domestic wind, clean hydro from Norway, and low carbon nuclear from France.

Roughly 61% of electricity used came from low carbon sources over the last 12 months. The coal plant in question will be retired next year (October 2024).

https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/GB

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-63976805

https://www.ecowatch.com/renewable-energy-uk-2022.html

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/end-to-coal-power-brought...

Re: Global heat in ‘uncharted territory’: 2023 could be the hottest year on record

#18

Post by IanCal »

colechristensen wrote: post #5

Not trying to deny anything but with the length of records and a random distribution you’d still expect “hottest year” to happen pretty often. (Somebody please do the statistics) With a very slightly warming planet it would indeed happen quite often. In other words… setting records means something, but less than one would expect by default. The more valid statistic is something like n of the last 30 years have been t…

> with the length of records and a random distribution you’d still expect “hottest year” to happen pretty often. (Somebody please do the statistics)

No you wouldn't, it would be increasingly rare as time went on.

> With a very slightly warming planet it would indeed happen quite often.

Yes? The frequency it happens is based on how fast the planet is heating.

Re: Global heat in ‘uncharted territory’: 2023 could be the hottest year on record

#19

Post by DoreenMichele »

ygjb wrote: post #15
DoreenMichele wrote: post #6

Rather than AC, which just deepens the problem by increasing our energy burn rate, we need more passive solar design. Plus more mixed-use, walkable neighborhoods. Also: Reduce upholstered furniture, books and similar, take trash out more regularly, remove all cardboard from groceries as soon as you get them home.

There is nothing that individual consumers can do that will change this. Policy is needed at a national and international level.

Perhaps. But if you don't want to be a statistic counted among the dead in the next heat wave, I recommend taking your trash out, getting rid of cardboard, etc to make the temp and humidity in your space more bearable.

Re: Global heat in ‘uncharted territory’: 2023 could be the hottest year on record

#20

Post by okaram »

colechristensen wrote: post #5

Not trying to deny anything but with the length of records and a random distribution you’d still expect “hottest year” to happen pretty often. (Somebody please do the statistics) With a very slightly warming planet it would indeed happen quite often. In other words… setting records means something, but less than one would expect by default. The more valid statistic is something like n of the last 30 years have been t…

I'm not sure which random distribution you mean ... But if you assume a normal distribution with constant mean, and, say, 100 years of records, the chances of you still getting the hottest now are very very small
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