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AI and the Automation of Work

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Re: AI and the Automation of Work

#11

Post by loveparade »

somewhereoutth wrote: post #9

Or it could be that the time/effort required to craft a prompt and check the output is not worth it for most/all use cases, and thus after the initial excitement ChatGPT and friends gather dust much like blockchain and Apple Vision.

I don't think this is a good analogy. A better analogy is the multiple previous AI hype cycles. They played out similarly. They brought some truly new capabilities that are used in production, just like LLMs will become a widely used tool, but failed to live up to the AGI hype even though everyone was convinced we're just a step away back in the 80s already and in a few years machine will do all our work.

The only reason people don't see this is because they weren't around back then. It's not going to be different this time.

Re: AI and the Automation of Work

#12

Post by famouswaffles »

loveparade wrote: post #11
somewhereoutth wrote: post #9

Or it could be that the time/effort required to craft a prompt and check the output is not worth it for most/all use cases, and thus after the initial excitement ChatGPT and friends gather dust much like blockchain and Apple Vision.

I don't think this is a good analogy. A better analogy is the multiple previous AI hype cycles. They played out similarly. They brought some truly new capabilities that are used in production, just like LLMs will become a widely used tool, but failed to live up to the AGI hype even though everyone was convinced we're just a step away back in the 80s already and in a few years machine will do all our work. The only re…

>The only reason people don't see this is because they weren't around back then. It's not going to be different this time.

There are people who've been around who think it's going to be different this time.

Look it's fine if you don't. Maybe you'll be right and they'll be wrong but this "anyone who disagrees is ignorant" rhetoric is uncalled for. You shouldn't need to result to ad hominems.

Re: AI and the Automation of Work

#13

Post by cmdli »

mdale wrote: post #6

I think the "sparks of AIG" presentations are compelling. It does feel like there are a just a few remaining big problems away from AGI level capabilities where it was more futuristic unclear projections in the past. If the issues as synthetic data conversations like alpha go but for LLMs; setting much longer token contexts (or dramatically cheaper training on custom data sets) And scaling via software and hardware a…

Honest question, not meaning to disagree with you: how do you view previous predictions of the success of AI, such as Marvin Minsky predicting in the 60s that AI “would substantially be solved in a generation”? What reasons would there be that the experts are correct this time?

Re: AI and the Automation of Work

#14

Post by rootusrootus »

somewhereoutth wrote: post #9

Or it could be that the time/effort required to craft a prompt and check the output is not worth it for most/all use cases, and thus after the initial excitement ChatGPT and friends gather dust much like blockchain and Apple Vision.

I think you make a good point. Anecdotally, I haven't yet found a good use for it in my workflow, despite trying. A few shell scripts, but mostly my existing workflow has proven more effective.

I am keeping up with the technology, though, to see how it evolves.

Re: AI and the Automation of Work

#15

Post by famouswaffles »

cmdli wrote: post #13
mdale wrote: post #6

I think the "sparks of AIG" presentations are compelling. It does feel like there are a just a few remaining big problems away from AGI level capabilities where it was more futuristic unclear projections in the past. If the issues as synthetic data conversations like alpha go but for LLMs; setting much longer token contexts (or dramatically cheaper training on custom data sets) And scaling via software and hardware a…

Honest question, not meaning to disagree with you: how do you view previous predictions of the success of AI, such as Marvin Minsky predicting in the 60s that AI “would substantially be solved in a generation”? What reasons would there be that the experts are correct this time?

Current Capability would be the biggest one. We're at the point where any testable definitions of GI that the sota LLM fails (GPT-4) is also failed by a good chunk of humans. You couldn't say that a few years ago nevermind 60.

What we have now (so no hypotheticals) coupled with the fact that scaling hasn't yet shown any performance walls makes a pretty good shout that things will probably be different this time.

Re: AI and the Automation of Work

#16

Post by code_biologist »

jiggawatts wrote: post #8
Jtsummers wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shadow IT is an unsupported, unendorsed IT process. Like when an office (without official support, and possibly against official rules) uses MS Access + VBA + whatever to automate a business process. ChatGPT is not endorsed by a lot of offices (in fact it's discouraged by many because it's an easy way to exfiltrate proprietary or otherwise confidential information since OpenAI retains those inputs), but it's become a…

Salesforce is oddly popular as a Shadow IT platform for web applications because it has a database and a programming language, but is often controlled by "non-IT" teams such as finance or whatever. I'm seeing people migrate perfectly fine ASP.NET or JSP applications to Salesforce just to get away from their internal IT teams, which can stretch out the paperwork to 2-3 years just to spin up a VM for a legitimate purpo…

God. Migrate to Salesforce was exactly the idea brought up by the sales side at a job of mine. I was on the IT side. Thank god we talked them down (plus they got sticker shock).

Some sales asks were legit and we got 'em done. Some were legit but low ROI and never done/priority even as sales had majority say in those priorities. Some were "please take this customer-hostile, flaky, human-explicitly-in-the-loop CRM workflow that has the thinnest veneer of plausibility above pure gaming of KPIs and insert it into a core product flow that's working well".

I think low code tools will continue to proliferate and I'm not against it. I do think they will be an interesting test of how much and in what contexts consumers are willing to accept half baked solutions. The capital environment this past decade has meant corporate leadership has been able to touch hot stoves without getting burned. Often they've been rewarded for it.

Re: AI and the Automation of Work

#18

Post by skepticATX »

famouswaffles wrote: post #15
cmdli wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honest question, not meaning to disagree with you: how do you view previous predictions of the success of AI, such as Marvin Minsky predicting in the 60s that AI “would substantially be solved in a generation”? What reasons would there be that the experts are correct this time?

Current Capability would be the biggest one. We're at the point where any testable definitions of GI that the sota LLM fails (GPT-4) is also failed by a good chunk of humans. You couldn't say that a few years ago nevermind 60. What we have now (so no hypotheticals) coupled with the fact that scaling hasn't yet shown any performance walls makes a pretty good shout that things will probably be different this time.

That's not really true though. LLMs are abysmal at planning, for example. Something that comes quite naturally to humans.

Re: AI and the Automation of Work

#19

Post by runsWphotons »

skepticATX wrote: post #18
famouswaffles wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Current Capability would be the biggest one. We're at the point where any testable definitions of GI that the sota LLM fails (GPT-4) is also failed by a good chunk of humans. You couldn't say that a few years ago nevermind 60. What we have now (so no hypotheticals) coupled with the fact that scaling hasn't yet shown any performance walls makes a pretty good shout that things will probably be different this time.

That's not really true though. LLMs are abysmal at planning, for example. Something that comes quite naturally to humans.

They are probably better than 10% of people

Re: AI and the Automation of Work

#20

Post by Aperocky »

kelvinjps wrote: post #4

I wonder if a unix like worlflow will be popular again, in general, I mean is easier to automate, ask it to make scripts etc

Probably won't, people don't ask for what they don't know, and you'd be surprised at how even in the field of software engineering people don't actively looks for ways to automate stuff.
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