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In the Future Everything Will Be A Coffee Shop

blog.speculist.com

11–20 of 68 posts

Re: In the Future Everything Will Be A Coffee Shop

#11
post #6

There are two candidates: one from the local state school with an appropriate college degree, a second with relevant MITx certificates of completion. Let’s say all other things between the candidates are equal. Which should be chosen? It’s true that an online education is not the same as the college experience. The candidate who went to college probably enjoyed his experience more, but how much is that experience wor…

If you have two candidates who appear to have the same skill levels and only one of them has had the distinct advantage of being to a top university and then it's surely the one with the more modest education who is likely to be most talented?

Re: In the Future Everything Will Be A Coffee Shop

#12
post #4

I'd love it if my office could be the coffee shop, or wherever I happen to be, but so far I've found that after a certain level of complexity and team size you pretty much have to be in the same room to make constant progress. I'm not sure if this is a problem with software development in general or just in the niche that I work within.

My company does a SAAS product aimed at banks. Everybody except the office manager telecommutes... sometimes. And everybody is in the office a large chunk of the time.

It's good to be able to concentrate alone, AND it's good to be able to collaborate in person.

Re: In the Future Everything Will Be A Coffee Shop

#13
"Book Stores Will Shrink to Coffee Shops"

This could turn out to be true, i just hope that as paper books turn into history, we dont lose the quality associated with something going into print. The process of having enough confidence to "Print it" is pretty intense, and therefore the quality of a printed book v's any e-book or website will not match up without a significant amount of effort (which i suspect for business reasons wont get as much attention, because for business reasons you dont want to screw up a paper book)

Its an interesting concept, i think we're just not there yet. People like paper books, the only way they'll go away is if they become unaffordable or just stop being produced (in which case i'm starting a publishing company focusing on paper books!)

Re: In the Future Everything Will Be A Coffee Shop

#14
post #9
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's also the problem of what will you do with the millions of people working in retail economy, and with the assorted collapsed buying ability of the middle to lower class. We don't just keep jobs because we need them. We also keep them because we need the distribution of wealth that they make possible --without a way to ensure that, everything collapses. There can't be a billionaire without millions of wage slav…

Guaranteed income. If the economy doesn't require everyone's labor, a bunch of people just shouldn't work, so make sure they can eat and you're done. I don't understand all this American obsession with jobs for everyone.

Promise free food, and suddenly way more people are demanding it than the economy can support. Even if the economy can afford to give away food, society stagnates because there is no incentive to produce nor advance anything of value - be it making widgets, sweeping floors, or writing sonnets. Those who do produce the wealth unproductive others live on will decide to not bother (look up "go Galt"). We Americans are obsessed with jobs because we realize to not work leads to death, be it individual or cultural.

Re: In the Future Everything Will Be A Coffee Shop

#15
post #4

I'd love it if my office could be the coffee shop, or wherever I happen to be, but so far I've found that after a certain level of complexity and team size you pretty much have to be in the same room to make constant progress. I'm not sure if this is a problem with software development in general or just in the niche that I work within.

[looks in desk drawer] What, doesn't everyone have at least two sets of barista tools in their cube?

Re: In the Future Everything Will Be A Coffee Shop

#16
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Guaranteed income. If the economy doesn't require everyone's labor, a bunch of people just shouldn't work, so make sure they can eat and you're done. I don't understand all this American obsession with jobs for everyone.

Promise free food, and suddenly way more people are demanding it than the economy can support. Even if the economy can afford to give away food, society stagnates because there is no incentive to produce nor advance anything of value - be it making widgets, sweeping floors, or writing sonnets. Those who do produce the wealth unproductive others live on will decide to not bother (look up "go Galt"). We Americans are o…

> Those who do produce the wealth unproductive others live on will decide to not bother (look up "go Galt").

Has this ever happened? Has anyone at any wealth level ever simply stopped making money because he was upset about taxes? I hear a lot of small-time sole proprieters talk about it, but I've never heard reliable reports of it actually happening.

Re: In the Future Everything Will Be A Coffee Shop

#17
post #2

tl;dr - I shop a lot on Amazon. Therefore we no longer need shops. We have the internet. Therefore we no longer need universities. The nice thing about "in the future" kind of statements is that they are impossible to disprove - especially when it is not specified how far in the future we are talking about. However, I think we are a long way from having gasoline delivered to your door and I always need to pop out for…

I spent last year living next door to the mall. I went there for food, clothing, and some candles and that's about it. I live 1 block from a Best Buy and still buy all my electronics online, and I am happy to replace the local bookstore which died with my kindle. Thanksgiving was the last time I went into a grocery store (Peapod). Gas is just about the only thing I can't buy online and buying an electric car is becoming tempting.

edit: I did get my replacement iPhone 4gs at the Apple store, but I got my first iPhone 4gs line despite walking past the place several times a week.

PS: I expect something like a 30% reduction in retail store sales in the next 20 years, that may or may not be huge, but it is significant.

Re: In the Future Everything Will Be A Coffee Shop

#18
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Guaranteed income. If the economy doesn't require everyone's labor, a bunch of people just shouldn't work, so make sure they can eat and you're done. I don't understand all this American obsession with jobs for everyone.

Promise free food, and suddenly way more people are demanding it than the economy can support. Even if the economy can afford to give away food, society stagnates because there is no incentive to produce nor advance anything of value - be it making widgets, sweeping floors, or writing sonnets. Those who do produce the wealth unproductive others live on will decide to not bother (look up "go Galt"). We Americans are o…

"free food" doesn't necessarily mean a communist society where everything is free - it means providing an income level that allows for the necessities of life. It probably makes more sense to give those away than it does to force people to work meaningless jobs just so we feel they aren't getting something for "free" - if the jobs don't produce value, then the workers are getting something for free, they're just also wasting their time in the process.

People would still have every incentive to work to improve their lot in life; most people on HN probably have the capability to quit their jobs and live off of welfare checks, but it's not exactly a great lifestyle, even if it doesn't require any work. In fact, people might have more incentive than they do now to try out new, interesting work; knowing that if everything blows up they won't screw up their lives and the lives of their families is a great asset.

Overall, I imagine society would progress tremendously if everyone were able to get an education and do creative work while being guaranteed the basics of life, even if that results in some freeloaders surviving on the dole.

Re: In the Future Everything Will Be A Coffee Shop

#20
This somewhat assumes that the purpose of universities is to gain knowledge useful to employers. While that might be a purpose of it, universities are also screening mechanisms.

This is something by people in educational economics. While I think the author has a great point that we're looking to get workers who can get the job done, that isn't necessarily how businesses hire. The benefits from education don't just come in the form of increased human capital. Basically, you get bonus points for having the degree regardless of what it means to your human capital (there's a term for it that I can't come up with right now).

For a long time, we've heard of jobs that don't need a college degree, but that you won't get hired for without it. In fact, that's the reasoning behind getting a college degree in many majors where one doesn't have the intention of working in that area.

College is also a place where people get sorted into social groups according to smartness - social groupings that can continue well past college. After college, you meet friends of friends you had in college who also went to schools similar to your own and you get to build a network of people like you somewhat regardless of your success in life.

Finally, the appeal of letters is great. If you're "John Smith, BS", you will always be that. You will get the respect of being a college grad for the rest of your life. In a world where things seem in flux, items that we place undue weight on are comforting. Heck, the same can be said of going to a good school. If you went to Harvard, you will always have gone to Harvard - something very few people can say. No matter how much you fail at life in the future, you have proven that you're the top by having gone there.

Getting a certificate of completion from MITx isn't the same for many of these things. The fact that there aren't entrance requirements or limitations means that it isn't a certification that you're the top rung of society - just that you've learned some knowledge. Because it's so broadly available, it isn't sorting you into a social grouping. If universities are for knowledge transmission, the author is right - that these new offerings are wonderful. While maybe they should be for that purpose, I think that universities play a broader role in our society (I'm not saying it's a good or desirable role, just a role). They prove to others that I was accepted as not just someone they could transmit knowledge to, but a really smart person well above what would be needed to pass the courses. They connect me to other smart people who will become my social group as well as professional networking group. They make sure that no matter what I do in the future, I've proven that I'm one of the smart ones - one of the elite. My neighbor with a high-school diploma may make millions as a real-estate agent, but I'm a college grad! I can still feel proud (and maybe a little smug) because someone has certified that I'm part of the top of society - and no one has done that for him!

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