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Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

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Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#11

Post by TheLoafOfBread »

logicchains wrote: post #2

I wonder why they added quotation marks around "coup" in the headline? Is there anything nonstandardly-coupish about a military commander engaging in armed rebellion to overthrow the standing government? Seems to perfectly fit the textbook/dictionary definition of "coup".

If January 6th disorganized mob breaching into government building can be considered a coup, then organized military force taking control over 2 major cities in Russia is definitely a coup.

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#12

Post by TekMol »

What is the state of decentralized betting platforms where people can place crypto on their predictions?

Shouldn't that give us the best possible predictions? Everybody with expertise or inside knowledge who sees the probabilities are off would rush in, place bets and "correct" the probabilities while making a profit.

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#13

Post by lloydatkinson »

exizt88 wrote: post #7
lloydatkinson wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As I understand it Wagner have already taken control of or surrounded various buildings in Moscow

This is false. The Wagner column is 500 kms away from Moscow.

Hard to say what the videos in Moscow are of then if that’s the case.

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#15

Post by jiggywiggy »

watwut wrote: post #10
logicchains wrote: post #2

I wonder why they added quotation marks around "coup" in the headline? Is there anything nonstandardly-coupish about a military commander engaging in armed rebellion to overthrow the standing government? Seems to perfectly fit the textbook/dictionary definition of "coup".

He explicitly claimed he is not against Putin, but against military leadership. So, it is totally not a coup per Prigozhin. It is kind of elementary school level of logic if you ask me, but it is the logic/argument Prigozhin is using.

Yeah interesting to see.

His videos are consistently insisting he is just defending and not hostile to Russia. Which is of course how he should position himself.

But Putin essentially gave him the death sentence so one or the other has to go.

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#16

Post by simion314 »

rixrax wrote: post #4

Will current regime resort to use of nuclear weapons against Wagner formations as they approach Moscow? After all, the state and the power regime are facing an existential risk.

There is no reason. How nukes benefit Putin?

only if maybe Russians will interpret this as super matcho/alpha , to sacrifice entire cities including their future to cleanup your own shit.

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#17

Post by 55555 »

TekMol wrote: post #12

What is the state of decentralized betting platforms where people can place crypto on their predictions? Shouldn't that give us the best possible predictions? Everybody with expertise or inside knowledge who sees the probabilities are off would rush in, place bets and "correct" the probabilities while making a profit.

The people who have legitimate inside information are billionaires and I doubt the market would be that deep. And it's a genuine coup, so the outcome is fundamentally unknowable. But yeah, historically prediction markets are great for stuff like this.

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#19

Post by tibbydudeza »

They are in Voronezh now on their way to capture local airfield - regular Russian units backfilled with conscripts (the good ones were all decimated in Ukraine) won't take on Wagner troops on the ground.

Air power will be the key.

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