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Tesla’s “Self-Driving” System Never Should Have Been Allowed on the Road

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Re: Tesla’s “Self-Driving” System Never Should Have Been Allowed on the Road

#11

Post by Ukv »

idop wrote: post #6
tristanb wrote: post #3

Im so fed up with this click garnering nonsense. I've had two teslas, and driven probably 200k miles on them since 2018, the majority of freeway miles on autopilot. How many times has autopilot created a dangerous situation? Zero. Zero times. Do I play with my phone and fall asleep while using it? No of course not. But it removes the cognitive load of making micro adjustments to the course of the vehicle. Has it done…

1. As mentioned, this article is about Full Self Driving Beta Pro Black Edition, but it's important to note that it is commonly confused with Autopilot, and vice versa. Even the most die-hard Tesla fans routinely confuse the two (example: you saw "Self-Driving System" and somehow that registered as "Autopilot"). 2. It's only click garnering nonsense if you don't bother reading the article. 3. I respect your thoughts…

> 1. As mentioned, this article is about Full Self Driving Beta Pro Black Edition

The article does mention both. Notably it uses autopilot+FSD crash count (but then only divides by the miles driven using FSD).

Re: Tesla’s “Self-Driving” System Never Should Have Been Allowed on the Road

#12

Post by nickserv »

morsch wrote: post #10
lacker wrote: post #5

Taking their calculations at face value, they estimate the fatality rate of Tesla's system as 11.3 deaths per 100 million miles. That is more than a standard car, but it isn't the most dangerous thing we allow on the road. For example, the fatality rate of riding a motorcycle is 31.64 deaths per 100 million miles. source: https://www.californiaaccidentattorneysblog.com/california-m... The per-mile risk of a self-driv…

> The per-mile risk of a self-driving Tesla is roughly the same (within the range of estimates this source gives) as the per-mile risk of riding a bicycle. That may be true, but the reader is reminded that a typical car trip is probably five to ten times as far as a typical bike trip (is that a reasonable guess?), so the risk per trip is five to ten times as high. The safety figures often quoted for plane travel shar…

Not to mention the disparities in cycling infrastructure. Riding in typical North American suburbia, on stroads with maybe some paint to protect you from fast driving SUVs is completely different from riding in a physically separated cycle lane in a speed controled city.

Re: Tesla’s “Self-Driving” System Never Should Have Been Allowed on the Road

#13

Post by ETH_start »

"The American Prospect is devoted to promoting informed discussion on public policy from a progressive perspective.

**

Founded by Robert Kuttner, Paul Starr, and Robert Reich"

Here is Robert Reich claiming that corporate profiteering is the "structural driver" of inflation:

https://twitter.com/RBReich/status/1595880687344689152

"If inflation comes up at the dinner table tonight, don’t forget to draw attention to the deeper structural driver of inflation: the concentration of the American economy in the hands of a few corporate giants with the power to raise prices, even as they rake in record profits."

And not the five fold increase in the money supply between 2019 and 2021:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL

This, by the way, is exactly what Latin American politicians claim:

https://twitter.com/nanexcool/status/1463679262381199365?s=2...

Re: Tesla’s “Self-Driving” System Never Should Have Been Allowed on the Road

#14

Post by crote »

lacker wrote: post #5

Taking their calculations at face value, they estimate the fatality rate of Tesla's system as 11.3 deaths per 100 million miles. That is more than a standard car, but it isn't the most dangerous thing we allow on the road. For example, the fatality rate of riding a motorcycle is 31.64 deaths per 100 million miles. source: https://www.californiaaccidentattorneysblog.com/california-m... The per-mile risk of a self-driv…

There are three major problems with this argument.

First, Tesla's system is primarily engaged on easy roads, and will automatically disengage in tricky situations. This means their safety figures are heavily skewed by the implicit exclusion of many accident-prone locations.

Second, comparing per-mile numbers across wildly different modes of transportation is impossible. Cars often drive literally an order of magnitude faster than a bicycle in a low-risk environment: it's called a "highway". Meanwhile, bicycles spend all their time in high-risk environments.

Third, it completely ignores the cause. A "bicycle fatality" is almost always actually a car killing the cyclist. Bicycles don't do the killing. Meanwhile, an "FSD fatality" is usually someone who actively got killed by a car with FSD engaged.

Once your are comparing apples to apples, Tesla suddenly looks a lot worse. And even if it were as safe as they claim it is, they should not automatically be allowed on the road. A lot of accidents are caused by poor or distracted driving. That's already illegal, and anyone caught doing so would be prosecuted for it. If Tesla acted exactly the same on the road, it should be prosecuted too. Right now they are shifting all the responsibility onto the driver who is supposed to "supervise", but considering how their product is marketed I do not believe they should get away with that loophole.

Re: Tesla’s “Self-Driving” System Never Should Have Been Allowed on the Road

#15

Post by YellOh »

nickserv wrote: post #12
morsch wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The per-mile risk of a self-driving Tesla is roughly the same (within the range of estimates this source gives) as the per-mile risk of riding a bicycle. That may be true, but the reader is reminded that a typical car trip is probably five to ten times as far as a typical bike trip (is that a reasonable guess?), so the risk per trip is five to ten times as high. The safety figures often quoted for plane travel shar…

Not to mention the disparities in cycling infrastructure. Riding in typical North American suburbia, on stroads with maybe some paint to protect you from fast driving SUVs is completely different from riding in a physically separated cycle lane in a speed controled city.

Also... if you're in a car that's more dangerous than usual, you have a higher risk of injuring yourself and a higher risk of injuring/killing others. If you take a bike, you're probably not going to slaughter a pedestrian.

Re: Tesla’s “Self-Driving” System Never Should Have Been Allowed on the Road

#16

Post by hindsightbias »

ETH_start wrote: post #13

"The American Prospect is devoted to promoting informed discussion on public policy from a progressive perspective. ** Founded by Robert Kuttner, Paul Starr, and Robert Reich" Here is Robert Reich claiming that corporate profiteering is the "structural driver" of inflation: https://twitter.com/RBReich/status/1595880687344689152 "If inflation comes up at the dinner table tonight, don’t forget to draw attention to the…

Money Supply conspiricists have predicted 8000 of the last 1 high inflation eras.

In the meantime: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exxon-smashes-wester...

Re: Tesla’s “Self-Driving” System Never Should Have Been Allowed on the Road

#17

Post by ETH_start »

hindsightbias wrote: post #16
ETH_start wrote: post #13

"The American Prospect is devoted to promoting informed discussion on public policy from a progressive perspective. ** Founded by Robert Kuttner, Paul Starr, and Robert Reich" Here is Robert Reich claiming that corporate profiteering is the "structural driver" of inflation: https://twitter.com/RBReich/status/1595880687344689152 "If inflation comes up at the dinner table tonight, don’t forget to draw attention to the…

Money Supply conspiricists have predicted 8000 of the last 1 high inflation eras. In the meantime: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exxon-smashes-wester...

The idea that supply and demand determine prices is not a conspiracy theory.

Expanding the money supply five fold in two years will create inflation.

Re: Tesla’s “Self-Driving” System Never Should Have Been Allowed on the Road

#18

Post by Topfi »

ETH_start wrote: post #13

"The American Prospect is devoted to promoting informed discussion on public policy from a progressive perspective. ** Founded by Robert Kuttner, Paul Starr, and Robert Reich" Here is Robert Reich claiming that corporate profiteering is the "structural driver" of inflation: https://twitter.com/RBReich/status/1595880687344689152 "If inflation comes up at the dinner table tonight, don’t forget to draw attention to the…

Discussion of the multifaceted issues causing inflation across the globe (even in countries with a less severe increase of their money supply across the same timeline) aside, does this in any way negate their position on Tesla operating their not nearly sufficiently tested "Full Self-driving Beta" on public roads using untrained members of the public?

I feel that the article, if anything, could have gone even more in-depth, as one key criticism I see rarely mentioned is Teslas constant changes to the FSD stack, the implications of which a lot of people "using" the "beta" simply will not be able to fully understand and has on multiple recorded occassions caused behavior that were different from what the untrained drivers had come to expect using previous versions.

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