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Forget $3B In Revenue: Things "Don't Look Good" For Facebook

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11–20 of 83 posts

Re: Forget $3B In Revenue: Things "Don't Look Good" For Facebook

#11
post #4

I'm kind of smelling some negative press push here about the IPO. A lot of the stuff doesn't seem to add up - despite supposedly solid leaks about documents, etc. What this might be an indicator of is a dedicated effort to push the stock price post-IPO lower so that various traders/funds can make a nice chunk of change off a rebound post-earnings. I'm fairly skeptical of this sort of conclusion - especially about sup…

Since your evidence is anecdotal I'll point out that there have been a number of "unhappy ending" stories regarding Facebook advertising on the front page of HN over the last year and a half. Perhaps your niche works well with their offerings, but it seems like you're the exception and not the rule.

Re: Forget $3B In Revenue: Things "Don't Look Good" For Facebook

#12
If the worst news you can find about Facebook is a few rumors that they might miss a revenue projection, a prediction that their ad revenue growth rate will decrease from its current 60% (note: ads are not the only way FB can make money), and a random class action lawsuit, then Facebook's prospects look about as good as any company's ever get.

This amount of badness is background radiation. You could scrape together at least this much about any public company.

Re: Forget $3B In Revenue: Things "Don't Look Good" For Facebook

#13
post #11
post #4

I'm kind of smelling some negative press push here about the IPO. A lot of the stuff doesn't seem to add up - despite supposedly solid leaks about documents, etc. What this might be an indicator of is a dedicated effort to push the stock price post-IPO lower so that various traders/funds can make a nice chunk of change off a rebound post-earnings. I'm fairly skeptical of this sort of conclusion - especially about sup…

Since your evidence is anecdotal I'll point out that there have been a number of "unhappy ending" stories regarding Facebook advertising on the front page of HN over the last year and a half. Perhaps your niche works well with their offerings, but it seems like you're the exception and not the rule.

Well, most of the unhappy endings have suffered from one or more of these problems:

1. The advertiser does not put enough money in to fully test the product/niche/demographic

2. The product targeting mix is not well thought through, targets too many people or doesn't take in to account other factors.

3. The advertiser is not testing enough ads to find what gets people to respond.

There are many more reasons as well, and I won't try and cover them all here. Suffice to say, most of the time people don't really put enough on the line to find where they can succeed with FB ads. This has kept the market fairly clear for people like me - I'll happily drop $1k to test something, because if even 1-2 ad/target combos is reliably profitable, I know I've hit something.

A very broad range of products work quite easily, you just have to break out of the old mold of thinking in terms of direct interest -> product correlation. For example, you aren't really going to sell jeans to people that like "clothes".

Think broader - target people that like home improvement and give them ads that say "Toughest Jeans Ever / (pic of dirty as hell jeans) / Work in the garden or change a sink, it doesn't matter. Save $20 with coupon FB20OFF today only!"

These are the ways to succeed on FB, but you really have to be willing to put it on the line.

Re: Forget $3B In Revenue: Things "Don't Look Good" For Facebook

#14
post #6

The graph in this article shows revenues continuing to go up over the next 3 years... Just at a slower rate. That doesn't sound like "things don't look good" but more like "things don't look as amazing as they did, but still look pretty good." Of course, I have no idea about the validity of the underlying data in that graph... But still, it totally doesn't match up with the analysis of the numbers presented in the te…

Let me give you a sneak peek into an investor's mind: "Slow, sustainable growth? SELL!"

You're thinking of a trader.

Re: Forget $3B In Revenue: Things "Don't Look Good" For Facebook

#15
Doesn't sound too bad at all, frankly. Someone is just trying to add a little drama to what is otherwise a big success story.

It is certainly true that usage of Facebook is rapidly shifting towards mobile, and that currently Facebook doesn't have any ads on mobile. That has got to impact revenue growth somewhat. But ads coming to Facebook mobile sometime soon is about as obvious as can be - and I'd bet on them doing it in a way that takes advantage of that platform's strengths and makes their company even stronger.

Re: Forget $3B In Revenue: Things "Don't Look Good" For Facebook

#16
post #12

If the worst news you can find about Facebook is a few rumors that they might miss a revenue projection, a prediction that their ad revenue growth rate will decrease from its current 60% (note: ads are not the only way FB can make money), and a random class action lawsuit, then Facebook's prospects look about as good as any company's ever get. This amount of badness is background radiation. You could scrape together…

That was my response as well, so they generate a slightly less ginomous net revenue and that is a problem how exactly.

Looking at worst case numbers it looks like Facebook will be close to 'accumulating cash' mode at the outset. That is a pretty good thing.

Now it would be nice to get some more visibility into their execution against advertising system changes but this reads more like a 'place' piece where the author hopes that if things go good people will forget they ever read it, and if they go really bad he'll be on record early 'predicting' it and will be able to demand huge consulting fees :-)

Of course I have no idea behind the motivations of the author, I just wondered how he can look at $5B in revenue and not be "well ok, their model is working at least."

Re: Forget $3B In Revenue: Things "Don't Look Good" For Facebook

#17
post #4

I'm kind of smelling some negative press push here about the IPO. A lot of the stuff doesn't seem to add up - despite supposedly solid leaks about documents, etc. What this might be an indicator of is a dedicated effort to push the stock price post-IPO lower so that various traders/funds can make a nice chunk of change off a rebound post-earnings. I'm fairly skeptical of this sort of conclusion - especially about sup…

I'll spend any free ad budget on FB before any other network, simply because I _know_ I'll profit from it - the risk is far lower and the margin far higher. After reading that, I went to your HN profile, where you write, "Entrepreneur and rabble-rouser with an eye for monetization and innovative business concepts. Tempered by the reality of being an affiliate marketer for 3+ years. Forged in the fire of having to com…

Good point. I have given a lot of thought to sustainability with Facebook Ads, and my optimism follows the basic data of my experience ever since it opened up.

Originally, low CPC's were quite commonplace. I could advertise something and get a pretty good rate - $0.10 or so - and make some really good money. Over time, the base CPC has risen across the world. Right now, you're looking at $1.20 or so just to hit the US untargeted (this isn't the suggested bid, this is actually running all-US ads).

What is really telling however is CPC's on very tight interest groups. Let's say I target a set of interests in a city that gets me about ~2k people in the profile. It used to be, even a year ago, that I'd pay about $0.80 per click. Today, you'll be lucky to find $1.30 on the low end. As niches get narrower and people get better at mining interest, the CPC climbs. Long term, sustained CPC trends are clear indicators of increasing demand and the ROI to sustain them.

Why this isn't talked about so much has to do with barriers to entry. I'm telling everyone here a lot about what I do without revealing the finer details. Also, I would say that as with any venue, some products do better than others. You can sell big-ticket stuff on FB, you just have to go about it much differently. You can lose a lot of money on Facebook quite easily, so how you approach the market is a big factor.

That said, the secrecy surrounding the success FB advertisers like myself are having is a much stronger indicator than anything that is said publicly. Will it keep FB from missing earnings targets? Probably not, but I remain very bullish on where they are going and what they have to offer.

Re: Forget $3B In Revenue: Things "Don't Look Good" For Facebook

#19
post #12

If the worst news you can find about Facebook is a few rumors that they might miss a revenue projection, a prediction that their ad revenue growth rate will decrease from its current 60% (note: ads are not the only way FB can make money), and a random class action lawsuit, then Facebook's prospects look about as good as any company's ever get. This amount of badness is background radiation. You could scrape together…

Facebook isn't a public company though. They're pre-IPO. They need to look like a no-risk growth shot, not "just another successful tech company". If you want one of those, go buy GOOG or AAPL.

Re: Forget $3B In Revenue: Things "Don't Look Good" For Facebook

#20
post #6

The graph in this article shows revenues continuing to go up over the next 3 years... Just at a slower rate. That doesn't sound like "things don't look good" but more like "things don't look as amazing as they did, but still look pretty good." Of course, I have no idea about the validity of the underlying data in that graph... But still, it totally doesn't match up with the analysis of the numbers presented in the te…

When your P/E is greater than 100, people are expecting mad growth in the future. Growth slowing already? That's bad news for people looking at investing.
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