Covid-19 vaccination-related myocarditis: A Korean nationwide study

1.08 in 100,000 cases of vaccine related myocarditis (VRM), 2.16 deaths per 1,000,000.

Hard to take much meaning away from that without understanding the risk posed by not vaccinating.

If vaccines can prevent long COVID or "post viral syndrome," that's another potential cost benefit analysis. (which would make sense from a laymen perspective, killing k random cells seems bad, but killing N random cells seems strictly worse).

"Some people are dead" sounds bad, but if you think about it some "people are dead" from lack of vaccine mandates too. So you really have to do the math, and the math is actually pretty clear on the whole. Then you can get more sophisticated and break it down by age group.

The study seems to say 1.08 cases of myocarditis per 100,000

What’s wild to me is:

1) It’s not neutral. It’s trained on a corpus including works by radicals of every bent weighted by the prevalence of their work in the corpus.

2) It’s not non-human. Separated from its human-derived training data, it does not function.

3) It doesn’t mediate between positions or propositions, it doesn’t have logic or intention. It merely regurgitates what it’s seen written before in similar contexts.

Given the 20% incidence rate at 5.29/100k, the population of the US in that age bracket, and the last update cdc vaccination rate (71%) for that age bracket, that means you could expect roughly 200 males 12-17 died from a covid vaccine in the US, assuming no confounding factors in the study (such as other cause myocarditis).

The known death count for this age range, males, for covid in the US is roughly 1000, or 5:1. There’s not good estimates on severe long term impact of covid (long covid) in these ages, but the studies I found estimate 4-10%. Further, when considering the value of vaccination at any age, you need to consider the “firewall” effect in not further transmitting to more vulnerable people. Young children in multi generational homes can pose a non trivial risk to the elderly in their home. A child killing their grandparents isn’t an outcome to be discounted. Overall even with these results it seems like good public health advice to vaccinate everyone, while not downplaying the tragedy of any premature death for any reason.