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Not Even a Recession: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect [pdf]

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Re: Not Even a Recession: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect [pdf]

#11

Post by mlrpr »

sho_hn wrote: post #8
H8crilA wrote: post #3

The winter was exceptionally warm, and no one could really predict that. But putting that aside, this whole episode was making me uneasy. To this day so many people in Europe cannot engage in strategic thinking. I think they simply do not believe that bombs can ever land on their own roofs. The understanding of foreign governments and their real intentions is often at a comical level, even when applied to actors that…

> To this day so many people in Europe cannot engage in strategic thinking. Much more troubling: Few people worldwide have the attention span and stamina to read a text of the length of an academic paper and engage its contents. That this thread is for the moment mostly hurried comments desperate to control the message shows as much. And it's tightly related to inability to do strategic thinking.

[flagged]

Re: Not Even a Recession: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect [pdf]

#12

Post by it_citizen »

ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #10
sho_hn wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To this day so many people in Europe cannot engage in strategic thinking. Much more troubling: Few people worldwide have the attention span and stamina to read a text of the length of an academic paper and engage its contents. That this thread is for the moment mostly hurried comments desperate to control the message shows as much. And it's tightly related to inability to do strategic thinking.

>Much more troubling: Few people worldwide have the attention span and stamina to read a text of the length off an academic paper and engage its contents. You don't need to read academic papers to know that Russia = evil. Eastern Europe has been parroting this for decades but Germany stuck its fingers in its ears and went "la-la-la-la, I can't hear you over the sound of my cheap gas brokered by our lord and savior, G…

This is very simplified.

A lot of western countries, Germany first, believed that if we traded and opened up to those countries, they would naturally tend to adopt western values.

It turned out to be incorrect. China being an even better example. But it was not a crazy assumption at the time, and coming after the fact is hindsight 20/20.

Honestly, even knowing how things turned out, I am proud that the west tried.

Re: Not Even a Recession: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect [pdf]

#13

Post by nr2x »

H8crilA wrote: post #3

The winter was exceptionally warm, and no one could really predict that. But putting that aside, this whole episode was making me uneasy. To this day so many people in Europe cannot engage in strategic thinking. I think they simply do not believe that bombs can ever land on their own roofs. The understanding of foreign governments and their real intentions is often at a comical level, even when applied to actors that…

Eh, Germans and points west are delusional, Hungary is corrupt, but Poland and the Baltics know the score.

The fact that Poland had to shame Germany into defending their *own interests* should be a national embarrassment.

Re: Not Even a Recession: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect [pdf]

#14

Post by ChuckNorris89 »

it_citizen wrote: post #12
ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Much more troubling: Few people worldwide have the attention span and stamina to read a text of the length off an academic paper and engage its contents. You don't need to read academic papers to know that Russia = evil. Eastern Europe has been parroting this for decades but Germany stuck its fingers in its ears and went "la-la-la-la, I can't hear you over the sound of my cheap gas brokered by our lord and savior, G…

This is very simplified. A lot of western countries, Germany first, believed that if we traded and opened up to those countries, they would naturally tend to adopt western values. It turned out to be incorrect. China being an even better example. But it was not a crazy assumption at the time, and coming after the fact is hindsight 20/20. Honestly, even knowing how things turned out, I am proud that the west tried.

>if we traded and opened up to those countries, they would naturally tend to adopt western values.

You can't possibly tell me with a straight face that your argument is "Germany didn't know that Russia invading 3 countries was bad and it hoped Russia would come around if it just kept buying gas from them and pumping trillions in their economy which Russia spent on its military would make them more peaceful".

It's safe to assume that either Germany doesn't know when to take a hint that after 3 invasions, your trading partner is not gonna come around, or Germany was actively ignoring Russia's warmongering for it's own benefit.

Either way it looks bad on Germany and no made up excuses are gonna cut it.

Re: Not Even a Recession: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect [pdf]

#15

Post by marcod »

ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #10
sho_hn wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To this day so many people in Europe cannot engage in strategic thinking. Much more troubling: Few people worldwide have the attention span and stamina to read a text of the length of an academic paper and engage its contents. That this thread is for the moment mostly hurried comments desperate to control the message shows as much. And it's tightly related to inability to do strategic thinking.

>Much more troubling: Few people worldwide have the attention span and stamina to read a text of the length off an academic paper and engage its contents. You don't need to read academic papers to know that Russia = evil. Eastern Europe has been parroting this for decades but Germany stuck its fingers in its ears and went "la-la-la-la, I can't hear you over the sound of my cheap gas brokered by our lord and savior, G…

Yes, to me it's much more about politicians wanting a short-term win, over long-term stability at a cost.

Re: Not Even a Recession: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect [pdf]

#17

Post by nr2x »

mlrpr wrote: post #11
sho_hn wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To this day so many people in Europe cannot engage in strategic thinking. Much more troubling: Few people worldwide have the attention span and stamina to read a text of the length of an academic paper and engage its contents. That this thread is for the moment mostly hurried comments desperate to control the message shows as much. And it's tightly related to inability to do strategic thinking.

[flagged]

Are you kidding??? The USA and Britain convinced Ukraine to give up its nukes!!! All this is rooted in trying to appease Russia in the first place.

If Ukraine had kept nukes they’d be at peace right now.

Re: Not Even a Recession: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect [pdf]

#18

Post by sounds »

mperham wrote: post #6
H8crilA wrote: post #3

The winter was exceptionally warm, and no one could really predict that. But putting that aside, this whole episode was making me uneasy. To this day so many people in Europe cannot engage in strategic thinking. I think they simply do not believe that bombs can ever land on their own roofs. The understanding of foreign governments and their real intentions is often at a comical level, even when applied to actors that…

From the article: Moreover, the country did not simply get lucky with particularly mild winter temperatures, as often alleged. The average winter temperature in the 2022/23 winter of 2.9°C was actually slightly colder than the average temperature over the four previous winters.

It's possible to have a lower mean temperature and still use less total heat. Stats, right? E.g. if the temperature is warmer at night.

Re: Not Even a Recession: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect [pdf]

#19

Post by Barrin92 »

The entire debate here in Germany is also just heavily driven by industry interest to a comical extent. Not only has the gas price already fallen to pre-war levels after decades of everyone arguing that these kinds of changes aren't possible, and there is no economic crisis, energy prices are also really only very critical for a rather small amount of products in particular niches of industry.

While that's not unimportant because industry is a substantial factor, the economy is also very diversified and just like with the car industry I'm kind of tired of the cronyism and giving in to every small industry bluff and demand for subsidies on the back of a crisis.

As a side note it would help though if our American friends across the pond would not fall for similar demands and push through enormous subsidy packages. Just let companies compete. There's a lot of bad industrial policy being revived opportunistically.

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