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Nuclear Plant $16B over Budget Arrives for Atomic Revival

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Re: Nuclear Plant $16B over Budget Arrives for Atomic Revival

#11
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK. So ... WHY are there so many regulations and safety procedures? Is this political fluff? Pure overhead? I don't think so. It is inherent to the nature of a solid fuel rod reactor, the incidence (and fear) of meltdowns, and the fear of nuclear waste. What is a nuclear meltdown. In solid fuel reactors a nuclear chain reaction is induced, so an atom of nuclear fuel splits from an incoming neutron, and in the process…

"But, like Fukushima showed, control systems are vulnerable to failure." Fukishima showed that organizational incompetence that led to backup generators being placed in the tsunami zone is a bad idea.

Do you think blaming "organizational incompetence" as a one-off is going to relieve constant review and regulation?

*You're arguing against the wrong point.*

Organizational incompetence is an every GREATER inevitability than a tsunami, earthquake, meteor strike, tornado, hurricane, or terrorist attack.

The point is that solid fuel reactors are currently completely fucked from an economic standpoint. They are fundamentally economically noncompetitive. They will hang on until grid storage, geothermal, or (god help us) natural gas turbine + CO2 capture replaces them as grid levelers. No, I don't think pebble bed or other approaches will work.

I love nuclear, it is so cool. I WANT a viable nuclear reactor option, that's competitive and useful. Does it HAVE to be LFTR? No, it's just the only design I see that really addresses all the semi-rational political concerns.

The nuclear lobby does itself no favors, just like you did with your immediate retort. "Death rates are low". "Nobody died from Fukushima". Those are fundamentally losing arguments politically, it will get the nuclear industry nowhere.

Now, as I said, the entire "nuclear lobby" is the "solid fuel legacy nuclear design lobby". They are riding out a loser's hand as long as they can. A switch to a radical new design might as well be the same thing as shutting down every existing nuclear plant. It's the same economic armageddon to them, so they don't care about "nuclear the idea" just "nuclear the profits".

But the dangerous thing is that all the practical nuclear engineering/knowledge that might allow a radical reactor design to succeed won't be around if the nuclear industry just clings to a slowly sinking ship. Everyone will die or retire in a generation, and then nuclear power, the IDEA, has a longer road to viability. Or it may be permanently disabled.

I don't want that. I want the nuclear industry, nuclear lobby, and American research infrastructure to WAKE UP and start really working on economically viable reactors. NOW. I mean, China isn't asleep at the switch.

But I don't see it. I see bullshit astroturfing stories like clockwork here. Which just saddens me.

Re: Nuclear Plant $16B over Budget Arrives for Atomic Revival

#12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These cost overruns are largely caused by the excessive regulations imposed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Even very minor changes to the design have to go through an extremely costly and time-consuming amendment process. In contrast, the NRC can decide whenever they want to change their mind about an already approved design, even after millions of dollars and years of time invested. That's why, until now,…

OK. So ... WHY are there so many regulations and safety procedures? Is this political fluff? Pure overhead? I don't think so. It is inherent to the nature of a solid fuel rod reactor, the incidence (and fear) of meltdowns, and the fear of nuclear waste. What is a nuclear meltdown. In solid fuel reactors a nuclear chain reaction is induced, so an atom of nuclear fuel splits from an incoming neutron, and in the process…

> It is inherent to the nature of a solid fuel rod reactor, the incidence (and fear) of meltdowns, and the fear of nuclear waste.

So why do these factors not apply to South Korea? Last time I checked, the laws of physics are identical there and here.

> They have no interest in its development because it is a massive risk, they are desperately trying to eke a profit out of current nuclear plants

Everything nuclear is already a massive risk, that the NRC will decide tommorow that they are feeling grumpy so your billion-dollar years-long project is canceled. Of course companies won't assume additional risk on top of that! The only way to survive is to play it as safe as possible.

Re: Nuclear Plant $16B over Budget Arrives for Atomic Revival

#13
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"But, like Fukushima showed, control systems are vulnerable to failure." Fukishima showed that organizational incompetence that led to backup generators being placed in the tsunami zone is a bad idea.

Do you think blaming "organizational incompetence" as a one-off is going to relieve constant review and regulation? *You're arguing against the wrong point.* Organizational incompetence is an every GREATER inevitability than a tsunami, earthquake, meteor strike, tornado, hurricane, or terrorist attack. The point is that solid fuel reactors are currently completely fucked from an economic standpoint. They are fundamen…

"Organizational incompetence is an every GREATER inevitability than a tsunami, earthquake, meteor strike, tornado, hurricane, or terrorist attack."

No, that isn't necessarily true. Look at the FAA, which has led to ever greater increases in airline safety, to the point where airline travel in the U.S. is safer than driving a car. Absent the 737 MAX debacle, airline deaths per mile had declined by multiple orders of magnitude since 1980.

SMR technology is being proven a safe and and cost-effective nuclear technology.

Also, the number of deaths from Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukishima are orders of magnitude less than current coal or oil fired electrical generation. I don't see what pint you are seeking to make.

Re: Nuclear Plant $16B over Budget Arrives for Atomic Revival

#14
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"But, like Fukushima showed, control systems are vulnerable to failure." Fukishima showed that organizational incompetence that led to backup generators being placed in the tsunami zone is a bad idea.

Do you think blaming "organizational incompetence" as a one-off is going to relieve constant review and regulation? *You're arguing against the wrong point.* Organizational incompetence is an every GREATER inevitability than a tsunami, earthquake, meteor strike, tornado, hurricane, or terrorist attack. The point is that solid fuel reactors are currently completely fucked from an economic standpoint. They are fundamen…

> The point is that solid fuel reactors are currently completely fucked from an economic standpoint. They are fundamentally economically noncompetitive.

If all of this is so "fundamental", then why does South Korea manage to build plants for cheap? And why has France managed to have its entire grid be nuclear-based for many decades? Please explain.

> I want the nuclear industry, nuclear lobby, and American research infrastructure to WAKE UP and start really working on economically viable reactors.

Then we must fix the regulatory incentives. That's how capitalism works: corporations chase profit. So if you want them to innovate, you make innovation the profitable option, instead of adding a mountain of regulation to block anything new.

Re: Nuclear Plant $16B over Budget Arrives for Atomic Revival

#15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These cost overruns are largely caused by the excessive regulations imposed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Even very minor changes to the design have to go through an extremely costly and time-consuming amendment process. In contrast, the NRC can decide whenever they want to change their mind about an already approved design, even after millions of dollars and years of time invested. That's why, until now,…

OK. So ... WHY are there so many regulations and safety procedures? Is this political fluff? Pure overhead? I don't think so. It is inherent to the nature of a solid fuel rod reactor, the incidence (and fear) of meltdowns, and the fear of nuclear waste. What is a nuclear meltdown. In solid fuel reactors a nuclear chain reaction is induced, so an atom of nuclear fuel splits from an incoming neutron, and in the process…

[dead]

Re: Nuclear Plant $16B over Budget Arrives for Atomic Revival

#16
post #2

7 years late and $16B over budget. Will provide energy only for 1 million people. And “utilities may build as many as five Vogtle-sized reactors over the next 35 years” —- so energy for 5 million more people? How many people is the US going to add over the next 35 years? 50 million? 100 million? It’s telling that even articles in favour of nuclear energy make it clear that nuclear energy is NOT the solution.

These cost overruns are largely caused by the excessive regulations imposed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Even very minor changes to the design have to go through an extremely costly and time-consuming amendment process. In contrast, the NRC can decide whenever they want to change their mind about an already approved design, even after millions of dollars and years of time invested. That's why, until now,…

No idea about South Korea, but projects routinely run late and over budget in Europe — in France, the UK, Finland etc.

Re: Nuclear Plant $16B over Budget Arrives for Atomic Revival

#17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you think blaming "organizational incompetence" as a one-off is going to relieve constant review and regulation? *You're arguing against the wrong point.* Organizational incompetence is an every GREATER inevitability than a tsunami, earthquake, meteor strike, tornado, hurricane, or terrorist attack. The point is that solid fuel reactors are currently completely fucked from an economic standpoint. They are fundamen…

> The point is that solid fuel reactors are currently completely fucked from an economic standpoint. They are fundamentally economically noncompetitive. If all of this is so "fundamental", then why does South Korea manage to build plants for cheap? And why has France managed to have its entire grid be nuclear-based for many decades? Please explain. > I want the nuclear industry, nuclear lobby, and American research i…

> its entire grid be nuclear-based for many decades?

This has a "60% of the time it works every time" feel that seems common when discussing the French grid.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/462535/nuclear-share-ele...

Why didn't they get to 100%, and why do people go out of their way to avoid discussing that?

Re: Nuclear Plant $16B over Budget Arrives for Atomic Revival

#18
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These cost overruns are largely caused by the excessive regulations imposed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Even very minor changes to the design have to go through an extremely costly and time-consuming amendment process. In contrast, the NRC can decide whenever they want to change their mind about an already approved design, even after millions of dollars and years of time invested. That's why, until now,…

No idea about South Korea, but projects routinely run late and over budget in Europe — in France, the UK, Finland etc.

It's just lobby capitalism at work. They give the project to the "best" bidder and then work together.

Re: Nuclear Plant $16B over Budget Arrives for Atomic Revival

#19
post #9

"And thanks to its nuclear generation, all that electricity will be carbon free." It ain't carbon-free to build the plants nor to mine and refine the uranium.

It's still, overall, about as carbon (and other pollution) free as renewables as of about a decade ago:

https://ourworldindata.org/safest-sources-of-energy

Renewables have probably edged further ahead since, but nuclear is still in a totally different category from non-renewables.

It's main problem is the expense. (edit to add: and even there it's ahead of fossil once you add the social cost of carbon to their price tag).

Re: Nuclear Plant $16B over Budget Arrives for Atomic Revival

#20
post #2

7 years late and $16B over budget. Will provide energy only for 1 million people. And “utilities may build as many as five Vogtle-sized reactors over the next 35 years” —- so energy for 5 million more people? How many people is the US going to add over the next 35 years? 50 million? 100 million? It’s telling that even articles in favour of nuclear energy make it clear that nuclear energy is NOT the solution.

These cost overruns are largely caused by the excessive regulations imposed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Even very minor changes to the design have to go through an extremely costly and time-consuming amendment process. In contrast, the NRC can decide whenever they want to change their mind about an already approved design, even after millions of dollars and years of time invested. That's why, until now,…

South Korea also had a scandal with faked documents. If that is what is needed to build profitable nuclear then we might as well let the nuclear industry continue its self inflicted slow death.

> In November 2012 it was discovered that over 5,000 small components used in five reactors at Yeonggwang Nuclear Power Plant had not been properly certified; eight suppliers had faked 60 warranties for the parts. Two reactors were shut down for component replacement, which was likely to cause power shortages in South Korea during the winter.[25] Reuters reported this as South Korea's worst nuclear crisis, highlighting a lack of transparency on nuclear safety and the dual roles of South Korea's nuclear regulators on supervision and promotion.[26] This incident followed the prosecution of five senior engineers for the coverup of a serious loss of power and cooling incident at Kori Nuclear Power Plant, which was subsequently graded at INES level 2.[25][27]

> In 2013, there was a scandal involving the use of counterfeit parts in nuclear plants and faked quality assurance certificates. In June 2013 Kori 2 and Shin Wolsong 1 were shut down, and Kori 1 and Shin Wolsong 2 ordered to remain offline, until safety-related control cabling with forged safety certificates is replaced.[28] Control cabling in the first APR-1400s under construction had to be replaced delaying construction by up to a year.[29] In October 2013 about 100 people were indicted for falsifying safety documents, including a former chief executive of Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power and a vice-president of Korea Electric Power Corporation.[30]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_South_Korea#H...

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