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Amazon’s Drone Delivery Dream Is Crashing

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Re: Amazon’s Drone Delivery Dream Is Crashing

#11
post #6

> “The computer, the ACS, the brain of the whole thing, is constantly telling the aircraft what to do and how to do it,” they say. “So when that restarts, you’re no longer getting power or signals or command to the motors. Everything goes offline. It turns into a brick and falls from the sky.” Feels like it would be relatively trivial to have some kind of parachute system that went off automatically on system failure…

Don't be so sure. A lot of automation simply isn't possible without AGI.

That may be true but drone deliveries definitely are. As stated in the article, plenty of other companies have already solved these problems.

Re: Amazon’s Drone Delivery Dream Is Crashing

#13
post #6

> “The computer, the ACS, the brain of the whole thing, is constantly telling the aircraft what to do and how to do it,” they say. “So when that restarts, you’re no longer getting power or signals or command to the motors. Everything goes offline. It turns into a brick and falls from the sky.” Feels like it would be relatively trivial to have some kind of parachute system that went off automatically on system failure…

I build UAV/UGV robots for living, a way to counter the “no commands” issue is having several fail-safe mechanisms in place in the flight controller like as soon as or after X period of time, an auto mode kicks in or activates the off board commands. I actually built a whole end-end platform with UI and a low latency encrypted tunnel to fly drones from anywhere in the world with sub 50ms latency -one time a pilot was in Australia flying a drone in Canada-, it has these fail dafe plus a fault tolerance system for the network/power, heavily tested in the filed by big clients, I might release it as a SaaS as in addition to the usuals like remote flight, and the fancy like collision avoidance in GNSS denied environment, I’m working to integrate now the ability flying swarms over the internet, and might go wild and open source it completely but still early for such talk.

Re: Amazon’s Drone Delivery Dream Is Crashing

#14
post #6

> “The computer, the ACS, the brain of the whole thing, is constantly telling the aircraft what to do and how to do it,” they say. “So when that restarts, you’re no longer getting power or signals or command to the motors. Everything goes offline. It turns into a brick and falls from the sky.” Feels like it would be relatively trivial to have some kind of parachute system that went off automatically on system failure…

> Feels like it would be relatively trivial to have some kind of parachute system that went off automatically on system failure. > if SpaceX can make self landing rockets Failure tolerant design isn't well understood by engineers who do not live in that world. We speak of Fault Tolerance levels, or FT-levels for short. FT0 means any one failure renders the system inoperable. In other words, it can't even tolerate a s…

I get it isn't perfect but it's impossible to eliminate all risk. I think we should be evaluating drone failure within the scope of the wider picture. If drone accidents are less likely and deadly than motor vehicle accidents (including lives lost to pollution) then we should probably press ahead with them even if the technology isn't perfect because we'll be saving more lives overall.

Re: Amazon’s Drone Delivery Dream Is Crashing

#15
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Feels like it would be relatively trivial to have some kind of parachute system that went off automatically on system failure. > if SpaceX can make self landing rockets Failure tolerant design isn't well understood by engineers who do not live in that world. We speak of Fault Tolerance levels, or FT-levels for short. FT0 means any one failure renders the system inoperable. In other words, it can't even tolerate a s…

I get it isn't perfect but it's impossible to eliminate all risk. I think we should be evaluating drone failure within the scope of the wider picture. If drone accidents are less likely and deadly than motor vehicle accidents (including lives lost to pollution) then we should probably press ahead with them even if the technology isn't perfect because we'll be saving more lives overall.

> I get it isn't perfect but it's impossible to eliminate all risk.

I don't think I said that anywhere in my comment. You are stating an obvious fact of life.

> I think we should be evaluating drone failure within the scope of the wider picture. If drone accidents are less likely and deadly than motor vehicle accidents (including lives lost to pollution) then we should probably press ahead with them even if the technology isn't perfect because we'll be saving more lives overall.

Good luck with that.

Re: Amazon’s Drone Delivery Dream Is Crashing

#16
post #6

> “The computer, the ACS, the brain of the whole thing, is constantly telling the aircraft what to do and how to do it,” they say. “So when that restarts, you’re no longer getting power or signals or command to the motors. Everything goes offline. It turns into a brick and falls from the sky.” Feels like it would be relatively trivial to have some kind of parachute system that went off automatically on system failure…

Seems like Zipline[1] is pretty close, but for me the question is less "can you do it properly?" and more "why would we take this approach?" I'd definitely want some compelling numbers on CO2, traffic reduction etc. (which may all be true, but I wouldn't want us to charge into the Jetsons just because we can). 1: https://www.flyzipline.com/

There's lots of second and third order effects I think. Traffic reduction and pollution reduction should result in a decrease in lives lost to accidents and respiratory diseases. Reduction in traffic could lead to uptake in cycling and outdoor activities and a healthier populace. Reduction in pollution could be better for ground based wildlife and the environment. I imagine there's significantly less cost both in materials and maintenance for a drone vs a van so that could end up being passed on to the consumer. Possibly personalised delivery times as the drone could theoretically delivery whenever.

A possibly more dystopian one: likely to have all manner of cameras and sensors on board that will probably be used at some point as evidence if a crime if committed whilst the drone is passing by the area.

Re: Amazon’s Drone Delivery Dream Is Crashing

#17
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get it isn't perfect but it's impossible to eliminate all risk. I think we should be evaluating drone failure within the scope of the wider picture. If drone accidents are less likely and deadly than motor vehicle accidents (including lives lost to pollution) then we should probably press ahead with them even if the technology isn't perfect because we'll be saving more lives overall.

> I get it isn't perfect but it's impossible to eliminate all risk. I don't think I said that anywhere in my comment. You are stating an obvious fact of life. > I think we should be evaluating drone failure within the scope of the wider picture. If drone accidents are less likely and deadly than motor vehicle accidents (including lives lost to pollution) then we should probably press ahead with them even if the techn…

> I get it isn't perfect but it's impossible to eliminate all risk.

>> I don't think I said that anywhere in my comment. You are stating an obvious fact of life.

Your original comment implied it's too expensive to be worth undertaking and I just don't think that's the case unless we're letting perfect be the enemy of good.

> I think we should be evaluating drone failure within the scope of the wider picture. If drone accidents are less likely and deadly than motor vehicle accidents (including lives lost to pollution) then we should probably press ahead with them even if the technology isn't perfect because we'll be saving more lives overall.

>> Good luck with that.

Well we have lots of traffic accident data and there are also lots of studies on estimated deaths due to pollution. It would not be difficult to get early data in pilot studies of these drones, extrapolate it and compare it with the traffic and pollution studies.

Re: Amazon’s Drone Delivery Dream Is Crashing

#18
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I get it isn't perfect but it's impossible to eliminate all risk. I don't think I said that anywhere in my comment. You are stating an obvious fact of life. > I think we should be evaluating drone failure within the scope of the wider picture. If drone accidents are less likely and deadly than motor vehicle accidents (including lives lost to pollution) then we should probably press ahead with them even if the techn…

> I get it isn't perfect but it's impossible to eliminate all risk. >> I don't think I said that anywhere in my comment. You are stating an obvious fact of life. Your original comment implied it's too expensive to be worth undertaking and I just don't think that's the case unless we're letting perfect be the enemy of good. > I think we should be evaluating drone failure within the scope of the wider picture. If drone…

> Your original comment implied it's too expensive to be worth undertaking

No. That's not what I said. Quoting:

"outside of aerospace/military applications is that FT designs can get very expensive, very quickly. It can be hard to justify some of the design decisions one might have to make in the context of low cost commercial products. This is the main issue with drones."

In a commercial environment you have real financial boundaries. If the acceptable cost range for a drone is in the order of $100K, nobody is going to pay $500K for one. A drone with aircraft-grade certification and failure tolerance can easily cost that much; even more.

It isn't a matter of "too expensive to be worth undertaking" --a statement that can easily be twisted into something about not caring enough about human lives, etc. That isn't the point. At all.

Delivering a package costs X. Nobody is going to pay ten times X for the same delivery. Why? Because there are excellent deliver services that will do the job for X, if not less. And so, the financial equation regulating the acceptable cost range of a drone-based operation is related to what the market is willing to accept. This, in turn, determines what type of engineering one can apply to the drones.

It's simple, really. Commercial products are bound by constraints imposed by the market. If you are not willing to pay $75 for a cheeseburger, the burger-joint employees cannot make $50 per hour. It's impossible. It isn't necessarily a question of it not being worth it (paying them that much). Not at all. The market will not support it. You just can't do it.

> extrapolate it and compare it with the traffic and pollution studies.

Name one product. A single commercial or industrial product. Whose design safety requirements were determines and actually implemented by evaluating deaths due to pollution as a decision-making metric.

It's nice to talk about these things, and you might have a fantastic idea. Yet, once we descend to the realities of this world, well, as I said, good luck. Not going to happen. That's just not how things work. Perhaps they should. Not today. Not anytime soon.

Re: Amazon’s Drone Delivery Dream Is Crashing

#19
post #3

There was never a drone delivery dream. This has been PR since Day 1. And this article is proof that it worked.

That zipline company seems quite legit. There was a youtube video about it just 2 days ago.

Yes, to be clear - Amazon has never had a real drone delivery dream. It's just theatrics for them.

Re: Amazon’s Drone Delivery Dream Is Crashing

#20
post #3

There was never a drone delivery dream. This has been PR since Day 1. And this article is proof that it worked.

I believed the same; it never seemed plausible to me that Amazon actually thought they could make drone delivery profitable. But... organizing an 850-person division which builds actual hardware sounds more like a real investment than just a PR effort.

A big part of the PR is internal - to make people at Amazon from the top to the bottom feel like they're still working at a "Day One" innovative company building cool new tech that they can excitedly tell their family about over Thanksgiving dinner. That's why it has to be a bit bigger than just some AI-generated stock imagery.
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