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IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

theguardian.com

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Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#11

Post by ZeroGravitas »

mistrial9 wrote: post #3
pocketarc wrote: post #2

Is it just my memory playing tricks, or did we not use to talk about crossing the 1C threshold? I guess now that that’s not a possibility anymore, we’re moving to the next, hoping to get some sort of action out of politicians. I strongly suspect we’re going to cross the 2C threshold in our lifetimes. The willpower to change things isn’t there, and the effects are too far removed from our decisions. Even the floods an…

How about the hot-fresh super charged activist group called ( edit ) "Climate 350" .. stop those carbon density numbers from climbing before it is TOO LATE less than two years after it was formed the PPM went past 360, then not long after went past 400 PPM iir.. how can those people feel emotionally after that?

Are you thinking of https://350.org/about/#history.

As far as I can tell, it was already past their "safe" target when formed, they were just setting a target to aim for in the long term.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#12

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

To start, yes, I agree with all the rest of the comments. Of course if you look at the action needed to start within the 1.5 degree carbon budget, it's simply impossible. It's kind of like saying how much better humanity would be if there were no wars - a nice thought, but also not going to happen.

I'm curious, though, and I admit I haven't read the report, but what is it about 1.5 degrees that the scientific community sees as so critical. Is that the temp after which positive feedback loops take over and it becomes a "runaway train", so to speak (e.g. less ice results in less albedo and more warming, which causes less ice). I just want to understand why that number was chosen to represent such a critical point.

And since it's obvious we are not going to make that limit, what are the additional consequences of hitting 2 or 3 degrees of warming?

Edit: To the downvoters, please take a look at https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions. Global CO2 emissions have simply skyrocketed since 1950. The only year they didn't go up was 2020 - remember that year we had a pandemic that shut down much of the world for months and months on end. And still, despite all the stoppage of activity, there was just a small blip down in CO2 emissions. I don't understand how any sane person can look at this graph and believe that 1.5 is attainable. Remember, we don't just have to flatten this graph, we need to bring it all the way back down to 0. I do think alternative energy technology will eventually get us there, but certainly not in 15 years, all across the world.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#13

Post by polotics »

zpeti wrote: post #4

[flagged]

The IPCC sadly had to accommodate economists, and they went one to do what economists do. However they got cordoned off in a separate section. Of course economic growth of Pakistan has been severely impacted by the floods they recently got, but hey what's evidence and anyway, it's all just a far away 'stan, right? The hard science sections tell it like it is, then the growth of GDP can be gamed in oh so many ways, maybe a beach that survived +2 warming and still looks good is worth visiting to the tune of 1000 more in $/vacation-day, right? Well then here is your GDP boost right there, all you got to have is someone still able to afford the 1000...

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#14

Post by [deleted] »

wing-_-nuts wrote: post #6

It always makes me sad how scientists have to put on a brave face and try to tell us there's still time . Sadly, they know the most likely outcome puts us blowing past 3C by the end of the century, and 'carbon capture' isn't going to save us. If you guys are planning to see the natural world in retirement, don't wait. Better to see it as it is now than what it will become.

[deleted]

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#15

Post by polotics »

Rygian wrote: post #10
zpeti wrote: post #4

[flagged]

"Economic growth" is probably a bad indicator to follow. I would rather follow "number of excess death directly or indirectly linked to climate change." I don't know if that can be calculated somewhere.

Also note that most deaths actually do boost the GDP metric, in the short term...

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#16

Post by FrojoS »

wing-_-nuts wrote: post #9
zpeti wrote: post #4

[flagged]

I cannot comprehend how someone could look at the evidence and conclude that growth will continue uninterrupted as the natural world is destroyed around us. If you really don't believe climate change will have any impact, you should take a look at the actions of insurance companies. Their survival depends on them properly pricing in climate risk, and there's a reason why they've largely abandoned florida.

you: > [...] If you really don't believe climate change will have any impact [...]

parent: > [...] they only predict that economic growth will be less because of climate change [...]

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#17

Post by luckylion »

polotics wrote: post #13
zpeti wrote: post #4

[flagged]

The IPCC sadly had to accommodate economists, and they went one to do what economists do. However they got cordoned off in a separate section. Of course economic growth of Pakistan has been severely impacted by the floods they recently got, but hey what's evidence and anyway, it's all just a far away 'stan, right? The hard science sections tell it like it is, then the growth of GDP can be gamed in oh so many ways, ma…

Should we just tell Pakistan to suck it and not develop? Should we just shut down all economic activity that isn't related to sequestering co2?

It seems obvious that there's a tension between economic activity (aka living in a somewhat developed country) and resource usage.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#18

Post by Retric »

Rygian wrote: post #8

For anyone interested in what 1.5C represents, I can't recommend enough the Climate Fresk [1] exercise. It's not just the droughts and floods, the heatwaves, the changes in birds, insects, crop yields, … Include permafrost melting and releasing greenhouse gasses, civil unrest in populated areas that won't be livable anymore, unstable food production, and quite a few other causes and consequences. It's a feedback loop…

Overstating impact is detrimental to the cause.

> decimated

1.5C will be bad, but it won’t directly kill 800+ million people in a short timeframe. People simply don’t respond to harm spread across 100 years the way they react to harm concentrated into a few large events.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#19

Post by Symmetry »

pocketarc wrote: post #2

Is it just my memory playing tricks, or did we not use to talk about crossing the 1C threshold? I guess now that that’s not a possibility anymore, we’re moving to the next, hoping to get some sort of action out of politicians. I strongly suspect we’re going to cross the 2C threshold in our lifetimes. The willpower to change things isn’t there, and the effects are too far removed from our decisions. Even the floods an…

Well, .5 C degree increments in average temperature are big enough to be qualitatively different, so that's why we use them. Hitting 1.5 C includes some things things like "All the ice in the arctic melts in the summer which really sucks for local wildlife" but nothing with huge negative effects on humans. 2.0 C includes "Sea level rise wipes some small island nations off the map", though, which made it of particular concern to said island nations during negotiations.

Probably, the climate is a complex system and we've never had a ringside view of CO2 levels rising this rapidly so there's really a large degree of both upside and downside uncertainty in all of this. Probably hitting 2C just means a few refugee crises and no disasters that'll effect most of humanity but we can't be sure.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#20

Post by witheld »

Retric wrote: post #18
Rygian wrote: post #8

For anyone interested in what 1.5C represents, I can't recommend enough the Climate Fresk [1] exercise. It's not just the droughts and floods, the heatwaves, the changes in birds, insects, crop yields, … Include permafrost melting and releasing greenhouse gasses, civil unrest in populated areas that won't be livable anymore, unstable food production, and quite a few other causes and consequences. It's a feedback loop…

Overstating impact is detrimental to the cause. > decimated 1.5C will be bad, but it won’t directly kill 800+ million people in a short timeframe. People simply don’t respond to harm spread across 100 years the way they react to harm concentrated into a few large events.

I would love to make a bet with you, and I'd be willing to, but I really don't think I'll get to collect.
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