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Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation within 90 days

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Re: Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation within 90 days

#11

Post by KRAKRISMOTT »

mark242 wrote: post #10

Just how out of touch is this guy? 50% inflation MoM within the next 90 days? Does he not understand the multiple system shocks that would need to take place for that to even come close to reality? Balaji, please - get out of your bubble. Go talk to your neighbors. They're all concerned about where to go for their kids spring break, the next episode of Mandalorian, and whether or not their bracket is still in content…

He will either lose his money or be known as the next George Soros (those who are old enough may remember that he once broke the British pound and several other minor currencies)

Re: Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation within 90 days

#12

Post by Laaas »

JVillella wrote: post #8
sharemywin wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

wonder if there's a way to pool funds like some kind of ethereum contract. I know ethereum won't talk to bitcoin, but maybe there's a way to do it?

There's something called WBTC[1]. It's very popular. [1]: https://wbtc.network

EDIT: This comment is entirely wrong! Disregard.

Do note this isn't _real_ wrapped bitcoin. It's essentially a stablecoin which price matches a bitcoin; it is not backed by any bitcoins unfortunately.

Real wrapped BTC would require a decentralised bridge which isn't exactly trivial.

Re: Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation within 90 days

#13

Post by JVillella »

quickthrowman wrote: post #5
JVillella wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think he is saying if it hyper inflates (they need to agree upon exact criteria) then he gets his 1M back + 1BTC. I don't think he is saying 1BTC > 1M USD.

Obviously he’d get his $1M back, why wouldn’t he? I never said he wouldn’t… He is selling a BTC put that expires in 90 days and is worth $800-900k for $26k, that’s all I said. Balaji is betting the hyperinflation makes the BTC worth more than $1M hyper inflated US dollars. If hyperinflation happens, the BTC/USD pair will go up in dollar value.

That's not what I am saying. I am saying that BTC may be worth 100k, and the USD 500k and he still wins the bet (under the interpretation I mentioned above).

Re: Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation within 90 days

#14

Post by JVillella »

Laaas wrote: post #12
JVillella wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's something called WBTC[1]. It's very popular. [1]: https://wbtc.network

EDIT: This comment is entirely wrong! Disregard. Do note this isn't _real_ wrapped bitcoin. It's essentially a stablecoin which price matches a bitcoin; it is not backed by any bitcoins unfortunately. Real wrapped BTC would require a decentralised bridge which isn't exactly trivial.

Wrong :) Look at the website.

Re: Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation within 90 days

#15

Post by JVillella »

JVillella wrote: post #13
quickthrowman wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Obviously he’d get his $1M back, why wouldn’t he? I never said he wouldn’t… He is selling a BTC put that expires in 90 days and is worth $800-900k for $26k, that’s all I said. Balaji is betting the hyperinflation makes the BTC worth more than $1M hyper inflated US dollars. If hyperinflation happens, the BTC/USD pair will go up in dollar value.

That's not what I am saying. I am saying that BTC may be worth 100k, and the USD 500k and he still wins the bet (under the interpretation I mentioned above).

Nevermind he just updated the thread.

>Terms of the bet: ideally someone can set up a smart contract where BTC is worth >$1M in 90 days, then I win. If it's worth less than $1M in 90 days, then the counterparty gets the $1M in USD.

https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1636827051419389952?s=20

Re: Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation within 90 days

#16

Post by brwck »

mark242 wrote: post #10

Just how out of touch is this guy? 50% inflation MoM within the next 90 days? Does he not understand the multiple system shocks that would need to take place for that to even come close to reality? Balaji, please - get out of your bubble. Go talk to your neighbors. They're all concerned about where to go for their kids spring break, the next episode of Mandalorian, and whether or not their bracket is still in content…

[flagged]

Re: Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation within 90 days

#17

Post by quickthrowman »

mark242 wrote: post #10

Just how out of touch is this guy? 50% inflation MoM within the next 90 days? Does he not understand the multiple system shocks that would need to take place for that to even come close to reality? Balaji, please - get out of your bubble. Go talk to your neighbors. They're all concerned about where to go for their kids spring break, the next episode of Mandalorian, and whether or not their bracket is still in content…

I’m convinced he is trolling, he posted another tweet where he says this:

> This isn't your typical fractional reserve situation. The problem is that there isn't enough in the banks on a mark-to-market basis to cover withdrawals.

How are people going to withdraw money and not put it into another bank? This guy is just saying ridiculous shit for attention, there’s no way he’s this stupid.

Again, his thesis is that bank withdrawals will cause banks to collapse and hyperinflation. It’s not possible for this to happen, there’s not enough physical cash to cause banks to collapse from withdrawals, and if you take money out of a bank in a non-cash form, where will you put it?

Re: Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation within 90 days

#18

Post by [deleted] »

JVillella wrote: post #15
JVillella wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not what I am saying. I am saying that BTC may be worth 100k, and the USD 500k and he still wins the bet (under the interpretation I mentioned above).

Nevermind he just updated the thread. >Terms of the bet: ideally someone can set up a smart contract where BTC is worth >$1M in 90 days, then I win. If it's worth less than $1M in 90 days, then the counterparty gets the $1M in USD. https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1636827051419389952?s=20

[deleted]

Re: Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation within 90 days

#19

Post by JeremyBanks »

JVillella wrote: post #14
Laaas wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EDIT: This comment is entirely wrong! Disregard. Do note this isn't _real_ wrapped bitcoin. It's essentially a stablecoin which price matches a bitcoin; it is not backed by any bitcoins unfortunately. Real wrapped BTC would require a decentralised bridge which isn't exactly trivial.

Wrong :) Look at the website.

[dead]

Re: Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation within 90 days

#20

Post by Laaas »

JVillella wrote: post #14
Laaas wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EDIT: This comment is entirely wrong! Disregard. Do note this isn't _real_ wrapped bitcoin. It's essentially a stablecoin which price matches a bitcoin; it is not backed by any bitcoins unfortunately. Real wrapped BTC would require a decentralised bridge which isn't exactly trivial.

Wrong :) Look at the website.

FWIW it seems to be centralised, making use of a custodian, albeit it is backed by BTC as you say.
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