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Controversial experiments that could make bird flu more risky to resume (2019)

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Re: Controversial experiments that could make bird flu more risky to resume (2019)

#11

Post by LatteLazy »

candiddevmike wrote: post #4

I truthfully do not see the value (vs risk) in this kind of research. Humanity is too careless to do this kind of thing safely. Figure out better ways to model this in software instead, IM (uninformed) O.

As long as china and other countries refuse to operate sanitary food chains, the risk they represent will be 1000s of times higher than a high security lab. That is why so many zoonotic diseases come from such places and so few from the rest of the world.

Don't "strain out a fly and swallow a camel"...

Re: Controversial experiments that could make bird flu more risky to resume (2019)

#13

Post by adrianb »

mikeyouse wrote: post #9
candiddevmike wrote: post #4

I truthfully do not see the value (vs risk) in this kind of research. Humanity is too careless to do this kind of thing safely. Figure out better ways to model this in software instead, IM (uninformed) O.

A general defense is that nature is a far better incubator and gain-of-function laboratory that we could ever hope to be. A few billion birds have caught bird flu in the past decade, so we're talking about trillions and trillions of viruses constantly undergoing mutation in close proximity with farm mammals and humans all over the world... If we know the genetics of what turns a bird flu into one transmissible to hum…

Trillions and trillions of mutations and still the most dangerous H5N1 viruses were created a decade ago by Fouchier and Kawaoka. And how did that help us prepare for the inevitable natural evolution of the same virus?

Re: Controversial experiments that could make bird flu more risky to resume (2019)

#14

Post by programmarchy »

mikeyouse wrote: post #9
candiddevmike wrote: post #4

I truthfully do not see the value (vs risk) in this kind of research. Humanity is too careless to do this kind of thing safely. Figure out better ways to model this in software instead, IM (uninformed) O.

A general defense is that nature is a far better incubator and gain-of-function laboratory that we could ever hope to be. A few billion birds have caught bird flu in the past decade, so we're talking about trillions and trillions of viruses constantly undergoing mutation in close proximity with farm mammals and humans all over the world... If we know the genetics of what turns a bird flu into one transmissible to hum…

[flagged]

Re: Controversial experiments that could make bird flu more risky to resume (2019)

#17

Post by mikeyouse »

adrianb wrote: post #13
mikeyouse wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A general defense is that nature is a far better incubator and gain-of-function laboratory that we could ever hope to be. A few billion birds have caught bird flu in the past decade, so we're talking about trillions and trillions of viruses constantly undergoing mutation in close proximity with farm mammals and humans all over the world... If we know the genetics of what turns a bird flu into one transmissible to hum…

Trillions and trillions of mutations and still the most dangerous H5N1 viruses were created a decade ago by Fouchier and Kawaoka. And how did that help us prepare for the inevitable natural evolution of the same virus?

Sure, but that's only if you restrict it to H5N1 instead of looking at the history of Influenza A and things like the Spanish Flu, which was the most deadly disease in human history and derived from a mutated bird flu.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmp058281

Even still, H5N1 has repeatedly infected humans in the wild... the most famous case in Hong Kong infecting 18 people and killing 6 of those. So you can make the case that GoF is irresponsible given the stakes, but it seems important to acknowledge that you're basically just hoping these horrific viruses don't mutate as we predict them to.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11938498/

Re: Controversial experiments that could make bird flu more risky to resume (2019)

#19

Post by stonemetal12 »

stickfigure wrote: post #16
Y_Y wrote: post #2

Better not resume bird flu then

I was trying to figure out how bird flu would damage my CV.

Bird flu is down around Cobol in popularity. Sure they have their niches, but is that someplace you want to work?

Re: Controversial experiments that could make bird flu more risky to resume (2019)

#20

Post by geysersam »

LatteLazy wrote: post #11
candiddevmike wrote: post #4

I truthfully do not see the value (vs risk) in this kind of research. Humanity is too careless to do this kind of thing safely. Figure out better ways to model this in software instead, IM (uninformed) O.

As long as china and other countries refuse to operate sanitary food chains, the risk they represent will be 1000s of times higher than a high security lab. That is why so many zoonotic diseases come from such places and so few from the rest of the world. Don't "strain out a fly and swallow a camel"...

That, or because a fifth of the worlds population live there.
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