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Docker 2.0 went from $11M to $135M in 2 years

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Re: Docker 2.0 went from $11M to $135M in 2 years

#12

So they waited until it was ingrained in most companies and then started charging for it? This seems like twist on the common play of subsidize with VC dollars until you have a large market share then increase the price to profitability.

No, it was a change in strategy.

The first attempt was to sell a crappy PaaS and container registry.

The second attempt was about monetising the desktop tools, more of a Dev tools play.

They have never really tried to bait and switch and monetise the Docker engine which always seemed like an open goal to me. $XX/year per engine and they would have been the next VMWare. Alas, seems like the current strategy is working well.

Alongside the change in strategy, I think there has also been a change in culture. Docker 1.0 was absolutely dripping in arrogance and weren’t set up for an enterprise sale. Developer tools seems like a much more natural fit.

Re: Docker 2.0 went from $11M to $135M in 2 years

#13
post #5

The problem I see with their business model is that the technology has long been commoditized, and alternatives are often better. It's a pretty tough spot to be in. Anecdotally, I use Colima on my Mac, and it is better than Docker Desktop in pretty much every way I can think of. I'm sure I'm not alone. Generally, a company like Docker would sell support agreements (ie: how Red Hat does it), but selling support to dev…

This issue was brought up in the initial hacker news thread, when Docker was moving towards this pricing model. Here we are, $120M ARR later. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28369570

Competitive Docker Desktop replacements (podman) are just starting to see adoption IMO. Let's see the number next year. Lots of companies had no other choice but to pay.

Re: Docker 2.0 went from $11M to $135M in 2 years

#14
> 254% YoY from ~$11M ARR in late 2020 to ~$135M at the end of 2022 just by flipping Docker Hub and Docker Desktop to paid for businesses

I have never met a single person who pays, or works for a company that pays, for Docker Desktop. Why would you?

Paying for Docker Hub seems like something that people do because they have to short-term, but there’s no genuine selling point to it long-term and I suspect people will migrate to self hosted solutions if they have not already, so it doesn’t strike me as particularly sustainable revenue.

Re: Docker 2.0 went from $11M to $135M in 2 years

#16
post #8

I remember everyone had written Docker off for dead when they announced their updated pricing plans, but they really made perfect sense, and I am happy to see the company recover. A large chunk of the tech world today relies on their products, but they were making next to nothing for it. It is definitely worth it for large companies to throw a few dollars their way considering the massive amount of value they are get…

It just goes to show how what enterprise customers value and what individual developers value are two very different things.

Re: Docker 2.0 went from $11M to $135M in 2 years

#17
post #5

The problem I see with their business model is that the technology has long been commoditized, and alternatives are often better. It's a pretty tough spot to be in. Anecdotally, I use Colima on my Mac, and it is better than Docker Desktop in pretty much every way I can think of. I'm sure I'm not alone. Generally, a company like Docker would sell support agreements (ie: how Red Hat does it), but selling support to dev…

This issue was brought up in the initial hacker news thread, when Docker was moving towards this pricing model. Here we are, $120M ARR later. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28369570

> Here we are, $120M ARR later.

Juicing ARR in a dying company is not rocket science, keep an eye on that number and compare it in 2025 or so to Apple or Microsoft.

Re: Docker 2.0 went from $11M to $135M in 2 years

#18
post #14

> 254% YoY from ~$11M ARR in late 2020 to ~$135M at the end of 2022 just by flipping Docker Hub and Docker Desktop to paid for businesses I have never met a single person who pays, or works for a company that pays, for Docker Desktop. Why would you? Paying for Docker Hub seems like something that people do because they have to short-term, but there’s no genuine selling point to it long-term and I suspect people will…

> Why would you?

Because the license often requires it.

Re: Docker 2.0 went from $11M to $135M in 2 years

#19
post #14

> 254% YoY from ~$11M ARR in late 2020 to ~$135M at the end of 2022 just by flipping Docker Hub and Docker Desktop to paid for businesses I have never met a single person who pays, or works for a company that pays, for Docker Desktop. Why would you? Paying for Docker Hub seems like something that people do because they have to short-term, but there’s no genuine selling point to it long-term and I suspect people will…

Just like I don't know anybody that pays for Oracle...

because I live in a bubble.

Re: Docker 2.0 went from $11M to $135M in 2 years

#20
post #14

> 254% YoY from ~$11M ARR in late 2020 to ~$135M at the end of 2022 just by flipping Docker Hub and Docker Desktop to paid for businesses I have never met a single person who pays, or works for a company that pays, for Docker Desktop. Why would you? Paying for Docker Hub seems like something that people do because they have to short-term, but there’s no genuine selling point to it long-term and I suspect people will…

If they partner with the Business Software Alliance to start offering bounties, their revenue will drastically increase. They already proved not to give a crap about telemetry in their products. I bet they start using callhomes and registered IP space to figure out quick who is cheating.
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