Wait wasn't the recession supposed to happen last year?
Ask HN: How to best take advantage of the coming recession?
11–20 of 83 posts
Re: Ask HN: How to best take advantage of the coming recession?
#12Realistically, if it’s as bad as they say, it could be wise to become a little bit liquid right now to reinforce your buying power during the apparently inevitable massive dip that’s coming. Personally, I don’t see it getting nearly as bad as 2008, but I could be wrong. I think some big corps will eat shit, there will be some layoffs, yada yada same old shit. There’s not going to be thousands of people suddenly homel…
>it could be wise to become a little bit liquid right now
That seems about a year too late on the nose, though I get your point.
One staggering stat for me is that ~40% of owner-occupied homes have no mortgage. Sure property tax and insurance (not required on a fully owned house) but that seems minimal especially if you were able to pay off the home, outside of very high areas or appreciation.
Re: Ask HN: How to best take advantage of the coming recession?
#13To rephrase your question, what are the structural alpha opportunities within economic slowdowns/recessions? Check out SSRN for those.
what is SSRN ?
Re: Ask HN: How to best take advantage of the coming recession?
#14There's some valid doubt [1] on whether the recession is going to happen, or if we'll muddle through on near-zero growth for a bit. But that's beside the point.
It's a good time to read up on investing now, figure out some asset classes (real estate, securities, gold, crypto, etc) that you think you could fairly evaluate, and then be ready to buy when you see stuff priced below what they're worth.
Investing is risky, so don't put all your eggs in one basket.
[1] I read this in two places, and forgot both, sorry.
Re: Ask HN: How to best take advantage of the coming recession?
#15It's counterintuitively a great time to start a business! Lots of poorly-managed startups are going to fold, which increases talent availability and decreases competition. Having a startup that has found product-market fit and is ready for growth coming out of the recession is an interesting opportunity - there was significant discussion of this during the the initial COVID downturn (obviously in a very different interest rate environment re: seeking investor funding)
Re: Ask HN: How to best take advantage of the coming recession?
#16Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm sorry but can you list a single stock with 15% dividend with track record for paying that out consistently? 15%+ growth (considering they pay taxes and have expenses other than dividend) consistently will reach astronomical numbers pretty quick.
They do not exist, absolutely. 4% is a good number for dividend paying stocks. Also inflation isn't over 15% hahaha.
Dividend paying stocks will be pulling from the value of the stock. The 4% you get will immediately drop the value of the stock by 4%ish.
Dividend paying stocks may not be a great option for most US people (and maybe others) unless they are in tax-advantaged accounts. You will be taxed on that as income and not capital gains, which would have occurred if you had a stock that held value and then sold it when you needed to.
Re: Ask HN: How to best take advantage of the coming recession?
#17I will post again my answer to what someone else asked similarly the other day [0]:
One thing we must make clear is, is there actually a recession? Many companies are firing, but they've fired much fewer than they've hired in the past few years. Many companies are still hiring now. I don't think there is a recession, much as people might be scared that there is.
Re: Ask HN: How to best take advantage of the coming recession?
#18It's counterintuitively a great time to start a business! Lots of poorly-managed startups are going to fold, which increases talent availability and decreases competition. Having a startup that has found product-market fit and is ready for growth coming out of the recession is an interesting opportunity - there was significant discussion of this during the the initial COVID downturn (obviously in a very different int…
Recessions are generally good times to start ANY businesses because if you have capital you will have opportunities to capture significant portions of the market, and like you said, getting skilled labor is easier.
Re: Ask HN: How to best take advantage of the coming recession?
#191. If there is a recession in the EU, nothing like 2008. It will be much shallower and shorter.
2. It actually looks like European data is rebounding a little, so y’all may skirt it.
Re: Ask HN: How to best take advantage of the coming recession?
#20Invest in yourself. Everyone is in the same boat together. Just be the best you that you can be.