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When do we have a scientific fact?

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11–20 of 119 posts

Re: When do we have a scientific fact?

#11
This is a good question to raise, but the question is mostly academic thought gymnastics. Would it be great if policies and decisions were based on facts? Sure it would.

But the real problem is not the distinction between "fact" and "very high confidence". The real problem is that is the misuse of dubious correlations to justify agendas. Politics, economics, personal decisions etc.

We don't have a crisis of scientific facts. We have a replication crisis. And because of that, a lot of bogus science goes unnoticed and makes way WAY larger impact than it should.

Re: When do we have a scientific fact?

#12

>The story is a long one, but for now let’s skip to the end: future-proof, established scientific facts can be identified via a solid (>95%) international scientific consensus, born of scientific labour, in a community that is large and diverse. In the entire history of science, no claim meeting these criteria has ever been overturned, despite enormous opportunity for that to happen (if it were ever going to happen).…

International scientific consensus, in the past, had a man murdered for proving the earth orbiting the sun.

Re: When do we have a scientific fact?

#13

>The story is a long one, but for now let’s skip to the end: future-proof, established scientific facts can be identified via a solid (>95%) international scientific consensus, born of scientific labour, in a community that is large and diverse. In the entire history of science, no claim meeting these criteria has ever been overturned, despite enormous opportunity for that to happen (if it were ever going to happen).…

International scientific consensus, in the past, had a man murdered for proving the earth orbiting the sun.

No it didn't. The Church was not a scientific body. The basis for their beliefs was not the scientific method, but faith in a literal interpretation of Scripture. Actual international scientific consensus (meaning, the consensus of actual scientists) has never had anyone murdered, if for no other reason than "science" has no body equivalent to the Church empowered or capable to do so, but certainly not for proving a hypothesis.

Re: When do we have a scientific fact?

#14
> Why haven’t science scholars devoted time to this issue?

This is a flat out lie. Metascientists have grappled with this question for a long time, including Kuhn and Popper (who are mentioned). The truth of the matter is that you can't identify a scientific fact, that's not really how science works. We rule things out, not in. But we also hone in on answers but never have an exact one. There will always be a lot of trust in the system. We trust that scientists won't lie. The truth is that there is very little lying. Because if you do, you are completely ruined. We're even seeing people distrust science not because scientists are wrong but because science reporting is wrong and people will blame scientists but not the reporting. Though the thing is, how is a layman supposed to know the difference? I wouldn't expect them to and I don't know how to. I can only really judge a "fact" that's in my niche in my field and everything else is an educated guess. I have training and experience, but there's still a lot of trust in the system. The world runs on trust and people are extremely trustworthy and good, even in this time where many people don't think this is true the evidence is right there that people are honest.

But the article is talking about two different things. It opens with

> Scientists, policymakers, and laypersons could all use an answer to [knowing what is a fact]

but then starts discussing how we know the earth's core's composition. I'm surprised they didn't talk about the electron (or particles) as this is something Popper and Kuhn both talked about. Are they real or are they forces or just a mathematical construct? This is a far more philosophical question than discussing how public can understand if someone is teaching science or telling lies while sounding scientific. This is really missing the point if you're conflating these two philosophical ideas.

I do think we should teach more metascience in the sciences but I'm not sure this will do anything to build peoples' trust in science, and more importantly, scientific communication.

But how should policy makers deal with these questions? The same way news sources should. You communicate with the scientists and you have scientists (or former) on your team. People that can speak the language and communicate with you. This has to be a team effort because we live in a world of specialization. There is too much information for any singular person to even have a glimpse of reality. But you'll find that many politicians don't have members like these on their teams and I'm not sure how you could expect them to make accurate decisions (or how they can even trust themselves, but that's a different issue).

Re: When do we have a scientific fact?

#16

>The story is a long one, but for now let’s skip to the end: future-proof, established scientific facts can be identified via a solid (>95%) international scientific consensus, born of scientific labour, in a community that is large and diverse. In the entire history of science, no claim meeting these criteria has ever been overturned, despite enormous opportunity for that to happen (if it were ever going to happen).…

If you replaced QM with general relativity, you would be correct. So, your broader point is valid.

Re: When do we have a scientific fact?

#17
This very lightweight article doesn't touch on why Popper and Kuhn were so influential (although I'm partial to Imre Lakatos, who tried to rescue Popper from Kuhn). If you aren't familiar with the Logical Positivists and their approach to science, it's valuable background to understanding the debates.

The article shows that the West has not really come to terms with rejecting divine revelation and the end of absolute certainty. Some personalities seem more drawn to "facts" than others, probably the same ones that are drawn to authoritarianism (of whatever flavor). I doubt people with high openness (in the OCEAN / Big Five sense) really clamor for FACTS.

Re: When do we have a scientific fact?

#18
What a terrible, horrible, no-good article. Claiming to be able to arbitrate what is fact and what isn’t without even mentioning epistemology and all the open questions therein, the reason that science is a process and not an end result… very bad form for a professor of philosophy. Maybe he goes into the details in the book he’s flogging (his own book of course) but judging by tfa my confidence is low.
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