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How to avoid another world war

spectator.co.uk

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Re: How to avoid another world war

#11

Post by mmmwww »

jamincan wrote: post #3

I balk at calls for peace from Henry Kissinger, who didn't seem to have qualms at raining death on millions of innocent people for his own personal political gains. Nevertheless, I did read the article. Kissinger's framework for understanding the world is still rooted in an outdated cold war mentality and this article seems like he is naively trying to shove the cat back in the bag and return to a paradigm that he fe…

While I agree with you, I think this information will already be understood in coming negotiations. Although the author’s legitimacy is questionable, I read the solution he proposes as sensible:

End of war. Removal of the army from Ukraine except for Crimea, at first and international oversight of referenda for the regions. Potential threat of cost of reparations and what it would mean for Russia to lose is probably what keeps Russia fighting, and away from the negotiation table.

Re: How to avoid another world war

#12

Post by ProjectArcturis »

I'm reminded of the classic Onion headline: "Heartbreaking: The Worst Person You Know Just Made A Great Point"

The deal he proposes is that Russia returns to the pre-2022 borders, and Ukraine joins NATO. That second point is critical, because without that protection by Western powers, Russia would surely rearm and reinvade Ukraine in a few years.

The alternative is that the war continues for several years, until Putin finally loses the will to fight, or is overthrown. That latter prospect, while initially appealing, would almost certainly result in a new leader who is just as aggressive, but more effective and less isolated.

Or, potentially, Russia itself might break up under the strain of prolonged war. We've never had a civil war in a nuclear power, but if you think that has a happy ending, you haven't been paying attention so far.

Re: How to avoid another world war

#14

Post by psychphysic »

mmmwww wrote: post #11
jamincan wrote: post #3

I balk at calls for peace from Henry Kissinger, who didn't seem to have qualms at raining death on millions of innocent people for his own personal political gains. Nevertheless, I did read the article. Kissinger's framework for understanding the world is still rooted in an outdated cold war mentality and this article seems like he is naively trying to shove the cat back in the bag and return to a paradigm that he fe…

While I agree with you, I think this information will already be understood in coming negotiations. Although the author’s legitimacy is questionable, I read the solution he proposes as sensible: End of war. Removal of the army from Ukraine except for Crimea, at first and international oversight of referenda for the regions. Potential threat of cost of reparations and what it would mean for Russia to lose is probably…

What Kissinger is correct about most is that none of this matters as much as ending this war.

With hindsight ww2 could have been avoided if it wasn't for the prolonged punishment for ww1.

Russia has too many ways to ruin the world for it to be worth not trying out best to bring them into the fold tightly and fast.

Sadly this will upset Ukrainians but that's unfortunately not as important as avoiding another world war.

Heck as I spell out below, what would happen if Russia simply continues to use its own fossil fuel supply? That's bad enough.

Re: How to avoid another world war

#15

Post by yywwbbn »

jamincan wrote: post #3

I balk at calls for peace from Henry Kissinger, who didn't seem to have qualms at raining death on millions of innocent people for his own personal political gains. Nevertheless, I did read the article. Kissinger's framework for understanding the world is still rooted in an outdated cold war mentality and this article seems like he is naively trying to shove the cat back in the bag and return to a paradigm that he fe…

> Russia's hegemony over its neighbours was not because of its nuclear power, but because of its military power

Arguably dependence on Russian oil & gas was as or more important. Basically countries in the region had a choice either pay the market price (or more if you don’t have access to the global market to buy natural gas) or submit to Russia politically and get massive discounts. Not an easy choice to make for poor post-soviet countries with no natural resources.

e.g. I don’t think the Belarusian regime would survive long without energy subsidies from Russia. The situation in Ukraine prior to 2014/2004 was not that different.

Re: How to avoid another world war

#16

Post by trasz3 »

ProjectArcturis wrote: post #12

I'm reminded of the classic Onion headline: "Heartbreaking: The Worst Person You Know Just Made A Great Point" The deal he proposes is that Russia returns to the pre-2022 borders, and Ukraine joins NATO. That second point is critical, because without that protection by Western powers, Russia would surely rearm and reinvade Ukraine in a few years. The alternative is that the war continues for several years, until Puti…

We had USSR split up 30 years ago, and it turned out quite well. Why assume making it happen again would result in something terrible?

Re: How to avoid another world war

#17

Post by ProjectArcturis »

trasz3 wrote: post #16
ProjectArcturis wrote: post #12

I'm reminded of the classic Onion headline: "Heartbreaking: The Worst Person You Know Just Made A Great Point" The deal he proposes is that Russia returns to the pre-2022 borders, and Ukraine joins NATO. That second point is critical, because without that protection by Western powers, Russia would surely rearm and reinvade Ukraine in a few years. The alternative is that the war continues for several years, until Puti…

We had USSR split up 30 years ago, and it turned out quite well. Why assume making it happen again would result in something terrible?

That was (mostly) a peaceful split, with countries that had been dominated by the Soviets for 50 years gaining independence. The rest of the Russian empire has been under Moscow/St Petersburg for 500 years. The ethnic Russian elites will not give up their Asian territories without a fight.

And, after what's happened to Ukraine, none of the new states will give up their nukes. We'll have a nuclear armed Dagestan, run by whoever was aggressive enough to seize power.

Re: How to avoid another world war

#18

Post by jamincan »

psychphysic wrote: post #7
jamincan wrote: post #3

I balk at calls for peace from Henry Kissinger, who didn't seem to have qualms at raining death on millions of innocent people for his own personal political gains. Nevertheless, I did read the article. Kissinger's framework for understanding the world is still rooted in an outdated cold war mentality and this article seems like he is naively trying to shove the cat back in the bag and return to a paradigm that he fe…

It's sounds like you're arguing for war with Russia while they are weak?

Not at all. Kissinger specifically frames this as a war between two great powers over a conventionally armed nation. In this framing, western nations have the power to end this war and set the terms for peace. But I don't believe this is true, and I feel this is a relic of a different era.

Western nations can influence the war - sending Ukraine more arms, or cutting off supply would certainly influence its chances. But fundamentally Ukraine is a sovereign nation and will decide peace on its own terms. Eastern European nations threatened by a world order where their sovereignty is subordinate to Russia's will support Ukraine on their terms. This is just fundamentally not a Russia v. NATO war as much as it might be more convenient if it were.

Re: How to avoid another world war

#19

Post by hackinthebochs »

trasz3 wrote: post #16
ProjectArcturis wrote: post #12

I'm reminded of the classic Onion headline: "Heartbreaking: The Worst Person You Know Just Made A Great Point" The deal he proposes is that Russia returns to the pre-2022 borders, and Ukraine joins NATO. That second point is critical, because without that protection by Western powers, Russia would surely rearm and reinvade Ukraine in a few years. The alternative is that the war continues for several years, until Puti…

We had USSR split up 30 years ago, and it turned out quite well. Why assume making it happen again would result in something terrible?

This is what is called over-updating on a single event. Probably the key difference is that each soviet republic was already a discrete identity based on ethnic, cultural, and historic ties, and so the default was simply to revert to that identity. For a state with no clear discrete sub-identities, nor with enough economic or military autonomy to survive as an independent state, civil war becomes much more likely as these lines are forcibly drawn.

Re: How to avoid another world war

#20

Post by yywwbbn »

psychphysic wrote: post #14
mmmwww wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I agree with you, I think this information will already be understood in coming negotiations. Although the author’s legitimacy is questionable, I read the solution he proposes as sensible: End of war. Removal of the army from Ukraine except for Crimea, at first and international oversight of referenda for the regions. Potential threat of cost of reparations and what it would mean for Russia to lose is probably…

What Kissinger is correct about most is that none of this matters as much as ending this war. With hindsight ww2 could have been avoided if it wasn't for the prolonged punishment for ww1. Russia has too many ways to ruin the world for it to be worth not trying out best to bring them into the fold tightly and fast. Sadly this will upset Ukrainians but that's unfortunately not as important as avoiding another world war…

> With hindsight ww2 could have been avoided

With hindsight most of WW2 could have been avoided if UK/France invaded Germany while its army was busy in Poland. Even during the Sudeten crisis, though this would have probably required a soviet intervention which would have been problematic. Then again the German Army wasn’t that well prepared for an all-out war back in 1938 and might have been bogged down in Czechoslovakia similarly to how Russia is now stuck in Ukraine. Support for Hitler in Germany wasn’t that necessarily that strong prior to the conquest of France especially amongst the military leadership* so a coup wouldn’t have been out of the question. The Battle of France pretty much turned Hitler into a German Napoleon.

* mainly because they didn’t believe that a quick victory was an option and feared a repeat of WW2. They obviously wanted to win a war against France eventually.

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