>Meanwhile, little to no progress will be made developing techniques and frameworks to build apps that are actually better for the end user.
If thats part of the criteria then I'll take the bet provided I am alive and solvent at the time.
My reasoning is that Spatial Computing is going to substantially progress the world of open web UI using WebGPU & WASM in ways that are not connectable to your assumed native primacy of scroll bars and menu elements as stated.
While similar arguments exists between Web and client side XR applications based on FPS & polygon counts, it doesn't mean that WebXR can't "build apps that are actually better for the end user" and do it better than with existing web frameworks. That even remains true if Apple ends up being a lone immersive web standard unto itself, intentionally hobbled at the knees to promote either Experience Quality or App Store lock-in. Not ideal but not removing the ability for WASM & WebGPU to run some novel XR workloads everywhere else in which case I'll be interested to see what $1000 looks like adjusted for inflation in 10yrs although a lawyer might argue the language points upto 2041, the technical end of the next decade.