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Tether's Troubles in November 2022

kalzumeus.com

11–20 of 126 posts

Re: Tether's Troubles in November 2022

#12
post #7

I'm a huge crypto bear, but the Fed Balance sheet is still way to big for the entire space to go to zero. Where would all the money go? SPX X 2, hyperinflation? https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttren...

Can you elaborate? How does crypto going to zero create money that has to go somewhere? How does crypto dropping in value in any way create money that needs to go somewhere?

I think you have things backwards...

Re: Tether's Troubles in November 2022

#13

I just hope that this is the beginning of the end for the whole crypto space. Good riddance. This fraud galore has no legal basis for existing.

Don't forget the utterly insane amounts of both financial and human capital that have been invested in this space with virtually nothing to show for it. The whole thing is an infinite sinkhole.

Cryptocurrency kind of reminds me of that Star Trek episode where they were going to destroy the Borg by giving them this impossible n-dimensional object to ponder. It had no solution but was infinitely interesting so they would ponder it, and ponder it, enlisting more and more minds in the collective until the entire Borg were occupied doing nothing but considering this shape. Cryptocurrency kind of seems to have done that to hacker culture. It's infinitely technically fascinating and pushes all the right cyber-libertarian buttons so it sucks in more and more resources forever but amounts to nothing.

Re: Tether's Troubles in November 2022

#14

I just hope that this is the beginning of the end for the whole crypto space. Good riddance. This fraud galore has no legal basis for existing.

I’m still amused by how much investment still VCs make into this space. If the industry shakes the bad apples out that would be truly great for the entire economy.

Re: Tether's Troubles in November 2022

#15
post #11
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Presumably the world in general. Just like the sooner cigarettes are gone the better.

Or coal power plants or something, since crypto energy consumption is massive

Miners are literally buying fossil fuel generation plants to make enough power to mine. It's a direct link to global harm.

Re: Tether's Troubles in November 2022

#16
I have a theory of why Tether is able to dodge risk. If they are owned by Bitfinex can they not front-run the Bitfinex order book to guarantee their stops will hit their target? They know the bitfinex order depth for every asset so they can for example buy into bitcoin and then calculate exactly when they must get out. Its possible this could be built into the core layer of their exchange software. That’s how I would do it if I wanted max profit without the risk and didn’t care about regulation.

Re: Tether's Troubles in November 2022

#17
post #16

I have a theory of why Tether is able to dodge risk. If they are owned by Bitfinex can they not front-run the Bitfinex order book to guarantee their stops will hit their target? They know the bitfinex order depth for every asset so they can for example buy into bitcoin and then calculate exactly when they must get out. Its possible this could be built into the core layer of their exchange software. That’s how I would…

>If they are owned by Bitfinex can they not front-run the Bitfinex order book to guarantee their stops will hit their target? They know the bitfinex order depth for every asset so they can for example buy into bitcoin and then calculate exactly when they must get out.

This makes no sense to me. Can you rephrase/elaborate what you mean by this?

Re: Tether's Troubles in November 2022

#18

I just hope that this is the beginning of the end for the whole crypto space. Good riddance. This fraud galore has no legal basis for existing.

I’m still amused by how much investment still VCs make into this space. If the industry shakes the bad apples out that would be truly great for the entire economy.

The industry IS a bad apple. There are zero legitimate use cases STILL of any crypto related product.

Re: Tether's Troubles in November 2022

#19
> The risk-on assets are 12.86% of the reserves, via simple division. Their equity is 0.36% of assets. If their risk-on assets were impaired by more than about 2.86%, Tether must have (by their own numbers) needed recapitalization. It is not credible that they suffered no serious impairment. Bitcoin, the blue chip cryptocurrency, is down by more than 10%.

> I challenge anyone to find a portfolio construction for digital token investments that possibly survived this environment with only a 2.86% impairment.

Last sentence right there is the nail in the coffin. There is no such possible investment that can exist without recapitilization based on these data.

Re: Tether's Troubles in November 2022

#20
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m still amused by how much investment still VCs make into this space. If the industry shakes the bad apples out that would be truly great for the entire economy.

The industry IS a bad apple. There are zero legitimate use cases STILL of any crypto related product.

Might even be an existential risk. One possible solution to the Fermi Paradox is that they invented crypto and it wrecked them.
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