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Warren Buffett editorial in NYT: Buy American. I Am.

nytimes.com

11–20 of 62 posts

Re: Warren Buffett editorial in NYT: Buy American. I Am.

#11

I bet he's gettin something on the side to basically step into the ring of fear here and fire the flare of "now's the time". I don't think people really dispute that now is the time. The problem is the view point. You basically have to put money in and swear not to look at it again until 2013. Because the day by day view of that investment is heart attack unfolding as the bad news isn't going away, the affects of the…

Buffett is managing Berkshire Hathaway, which manages other people's investments. If you believe in his strategy, buy into his fund, don't try to imitate him.

Re: Warren Buffett editorial in NYT: Buy American. I Am.

#12
post #11

I bet he's gettin something on the side to basically step into the ring of fear here and fire the flare of "now's the time". I don't think people really dispute that now is the time. The problem is the view point. You basically have to put money in and swear not to look at it again until 2013. Because the day by day view of that investment is heart attack unfolding as the bad news isn't going away, the affects of the…

Buffett is managing Berkshire Hathaway, which manages other people's investments. If you believe in his strategy, buy into his fund, don't try to imitate him.

Not necessarily. Berkshire's stock price is based on how well other people think Buffett manages money. And his reputation is pretty darn good right now.

There've been times - like 1998 - when Berkshire stock was very much overvalued, and you'd be better off imitating Buffett than buying him. Hell, back then, Buffett thought Berkshire stock was overvalued, and got rid of $20B of it in buying General Re. If Berkshire is selling Berkshire stock, it's probably a good sign that you should be imitating and not buying in.

...however, I don't think now is one of those times.

Re: Warren Buffett editorial in NYT: Buy American. I Am.

#14
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Buffett is managing Berkshire Hathaway, which manages other people's investments. If you believe in his strategy, buy into his fund, don't try to imitate him.

Not necessarily. Berkshire's stock price is based on how well other people think Buffett manages money. And his reputation is pretty darn good right now. There've been times - like 1998 - when Berkshire stock was very much overvalued, and you'd be better off imitating Buffett than buying him. Hell, back then, Buffett thought Berkshire stock was overvalued, and got rid of $20B of it in buying General Re. If Berkshire…

Unfortunately you can't imitate him with high accuracy the way you could with an ETF since they have a number of wholly-owned subsidiaries. That's also what allows their stock to get out of alignment with market value of their holdings.

Re: Warren Buffett editorial in NYT: Buy American. I Am.

#15
I have a huge amount of respect for Buffet and this article has some sound advice. But, I still don't understand if it applies only to stocks or to anything US. This sentence (2nd paragraph) "I've been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I'm talking about [...]" sounds like, I've done my share in helping out by buying equity and [I imply] you see how you do yours with buying whatever US. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Re: Warren Buffett editorial in NYT: Buy American. I Am.

#16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not necessarily. Berkshire's stock price is based on how well other people think Buffett manages money. And his reputation is pretty darn good right now. There've been times - like 1998 - when Berkshire stock was very much overvalued, and you'd be better off imitating Buffett than buying him. Hell, back then, Buffett thought Berkshire stock was overvalued, and got rid of $20B of it in buying General Re. If Berkshire…

Unfortunately you can't imitate him with high accuracy the way you could with an ETF since they have a number of wholly-owned subsidiaries. That's also what allows their stock to get out of alignment with market value of their holdings.

You can get a good idea of whether Buffett thinks Berkshire is undervalued or overvalued by whether he uses cash or stock for acquisitions, though. When the stock is overvalued, he'll trade overvalued Berkshire stock for undervalued other stocks. When the stock is undervalued or fairly-valued, he'll use cash for the purchase.

Everything recent has been done with cash, AFAIK.

Re: Warren Buffett editorial in NYT: Buy American. I Am.

#18
post #11

I bet he's gettin something on the side to basically step into the ring of fear here and fire the flare of "now's the time". I don't think people really dispute that now is the time. The problem is the view point. You basically have to put money in and swear not to look at it again until 2013. Because the day by day view of that investment is heart attack unfolding as the bad news isn't going away, the affects of the…

Buffett is managing Berkshire Hathaway, which manages other people's investments. If you believe in his strategy, buy into his fund, don't try to imitate him.

As Buffet has mentioned himself, Berkshire has a serious disadvantage compared to a small investor: tons of cash, meaning it only makes sense to make huge bets thus limiting its choices.

Re: Warren Buffett editorial in NYT: Buy American. I Am.

#19

I bet he's gettin something on the side to basically step into the ring of fear here and fire the flare of "now's the time". I don't think people really dispute that now is the time. The problem is the view point. You basically have to put money in and swear not to look at it again until 2013. Because the day by day view of that investment is heart attack unfolding as the bad news isn't going away, the affects of the…

I wouldn't buy equity or debt at this point. There are companies with massive equity holdings who have bought credit default swaps to hedge against various losses. The CDS market is worth around 800 trillion at this point. Most of these contracts will work out without causing problems.

That being said, the last plunge came a day after the settlement of Fannie & Freddie for roughly 90 cents on the dollar. We do not know how much of a factor this was because we do not know whether the parties selling stock were cashing out to cover CDS liabilities. We do know that the contracts covering debt held by Lehman Bros are due to be settled later this month for about 10 cents on the dollar. Someone somewhere is going to eat major losses. It will be a good sign if we get to November without another plunge.

When this debt gets settled though, someone somewhere will have to sell assets to cover their debts. Assuming everyone is properly and responsibly hedged we shouldn't have major issues. But... uh.... 800 trillion is a pretty big number, and the incentive for CDS providers was clearly to gamble: take short-term payments in exchange for bearing risk and hoping you never have to pay up.

Frankly, if I had any US assets at this point I'd convert them into Australian holdings. The exchange rate phenomenal at this point and the shift will insulate against the coming crash of the US dollar. Things are worse than people imagine.

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