Excess death from around the world due to Covid • Hacker News Board

Re: Excess death from around the world due to Covid

#11

Post by jjeaff » Wed, Nov 09, 2022, 6:10 PM UTC

gmarx wrote: post #9

Fascinating analysis and I cannot immediately see the flaws. I don't see any specific good counter-arguments in this thread. One thing I would contradict is his idea that it is suspicious that excess deaths taper just as vaccinations do. Wouldn't we expect that if the vaccines worked well? Presumably vaccines taper as the vulnerable population is saturated with vaccine. Some time after that you would expect deaths to…

I'd start with the childlike superlatives like pointing out "the best epidemiologist in the world". As if there is some world Olympics of epidemiologists to decide such a thing. Being full of memes isn't usually a good sign either.

But that they would claim this data suggests that the vaccine doesn't reduce covid deaths is completely ridiculous. At this point, there is countless data indicating reduced mortality due to the vaccine.

Re: Excess death from around the world due to Covid

#12

Post by lostlogin » Wed, Nov 09, 2022, 6:55 PM UTC

gmarx wrote: post #9

Fascinating analysis and I cannot immediately see the flaws. I don't see any specific good counter-arguments in this thread. One thing I would contradict is his idea that it is suspicious that excess deaths taper just as vaccinations do. Wouldn't we expect that if the vaccines worked well? Presumably vaccines taper as the vulnerable population is saturated with vaccine. Some time after that you would expect deaths to…

> Fascinating analysis and I cannot immediately see the flaws.

The whole article could have been a Facebook post.

Re: Excess death from around the world due to Covid

#13

Post by kbrkbr » Wed, Nov 09, 2022, 7:51 PM UTC

gmarx wrote: post #9

Fascinating analysis and I cannot immediately see the flaws. I don't see any specific good counter-arguments in this thread. One thing I would contradict is his idea that it is suspicious that excess deaths taper just as vaccinations do. Wouldn't we expect that if the vaccines worked well? Presumably vaccines taper as the vulnerable population is saturated with vaccine. Some time after that you would expect deaths to…

What is the point of hand wavy overlaying two time series, as if the interpretation was obvious (cumulative excess deaths vs. Covid deaths). Have you realized how the scales do match up between the plots? Same for excess deaths against vaccination. I still wonder what I should „see“ there, and why there are no statistical calculations to back up the „obvious“…

Re: Excess death from around the world due to Covid

#14

Post by kbrkbr » Wed, Nov 09, 2022, 10:01 PM UTC

kbrkbr wrote: post #13

gmarx wrote: post #9

Fascinating analysis and I cannot immediately see the flaws. I don't see any specific good counter-arguments in this thread. One thing I would contradict is his idea that it is suspicious that excess deaths taper just as vaccinations do. Wouldn't we expect that if the vaccines worked well? Presumably vaccines taper as the vulnerable population is saturated with vaccine. Some time after that you would expect deaths to…

What is the point of hand wavy overlaying two time series, as if the interpretation was obvious (cumulative excess deaths vs. Covid deaths). Have you realized how the scales do match up between the plots? Same for excess deaths against vaccination. I still wonder what I should „see“ there, and why there are no statistical calculations to back up the „obvious“…

I actually meant „Have you realized how the scales do NOT match up between the plots?“, but somehow I can’t edit the comment.

Re: Excess death from around the world due to Covid

#15

Post by bediger4000 » Thu, Nov 10, 2022, 12:06 AM UTC

jjeaff wrote: post #10

bediger4000 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If masking was ineffective, why was the 2020 influenza season virtually non-existent in both northern and South hemispheres where masking was required?

Clearly masks helped reduce flu, but also simply being more socially distanced in general. Of course, many people have a hard time thinking deeply about things like this. Many actually have cited the lack of flu cases as proof of misclassification of everything to covid. But since we know flu is much less contagious than covid, it makes sense that mitigation measure like masks and social distancing were simply more e…

Given that medical tests for influenza have existed for a long time, and are and have been routinely given for hospital admissions, I think we can discard the misclassification of everything to covid theory.