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Using machine learning to predict the leads that close

outfunnel.com

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Re: Using machine learning to predict the leads that close

#11

Post by rukuu001 »

unlikelymordant wrote: post #8

What should you do with this information though? Should the salespeople focus on the customers that are most likely to convert? Or should the salespeople give minimal attention to those, and focus most on the ones less likely, but not 0 probability, to convert. I think the most important outputs of this are understanding the factors involved in conversion to tune business processes, not necessarily using the outputs…

Yeah, the salespeople avoid spending time on leads unlikely to close.

They're all operating on this kind of information already (like the basic stuff - is this person a decision-maker, do they have budget etc etc).

I take this seriously because I've seen consultants making money in this space already (advising on leads unlikely to close).

Re: Using machine learning to predict the leads that close

#12

Post by dotancohen »

unlikelymordant wrote: post #8

What should you do with this information though? Should the salespeople focus on the customers that are most likely to convert? Or should the salespeople give minimal attention to those, and focus most on the ones less likely, but not 0 probability, to convert. I think the most important outputs of this are understanding the factors involved in conversion to tune business processes, not necessarily using the outputs…

Look up the guidelines that emergency responders use when tending to incidents with a large number of casualties. The techniques are just as relevant to leads conversation.

Also, explore the BANT leads conversation ideas. Adapt it to your industry.

Re: Using machine learning to predict the leads that close

#13

Post by idiocrat »

kjellsbells wrote: post #7
shcheklein wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope though there will be an ML product that can do a decent improvement in this space. Even small improvement there brings significant ROI.

I spent years using a tool called Clari that applied analytics to Salesforce and Office (email) to predict deal activity. When it worked, it was really good. But it had a fatal flaw: relying on Salesforce meant relying on the data that sales people input. And I quickly learned that sales people hate reporting tools, update them only under duress, and generally fill the database with crap. Perhaps it's different when…

> sales people hate reporting tools, update them only under duress, and generally fill the database with crap.

Sometimes the salespeople do not want to share information about their leads, as their over many years tediously-spun network of their private connections and business-friends is their most valuable asset.

Sales is two-ways -- need to get get sales credit and keep reputation.

Re: Using machine learning to predict the leads that close

#14

Post by kmoser »

idiocrat wrote: post #13
kjellsbells wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I spent years using a tool called Clari that applied analytics to Salesforce and Office (email) to predict deal activity. When it worked, it was really good. But it had a fatal flaw: relying on Salesforce meant relying on the data that sales people input. And I quickly learned that sales people hate reporting tools, update them only under duress, and generally fill the database with crap. Perhaps it's different when…

> sales people hate reporting tools, update them only under duress, and generally fill the database with crap. Sometimes the salespeople do not want to share information about their leads, as their over many years tediously-spun network of their private connections and business-friends is their most valuable asset. Sales is two-ways -- need to get get sales credit and keep reputation.

Looks like that company needs to remind the sales drones that coffee is for closers, second prize is a set of steak knives, and third prize is you're fired.

Re: Using machine learning to predict the leads that close

#15

Post by 6stringmerc »

kjellsbells wrote: post #10
asyncscrum wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thus spawning a whole new class of tools that add a more convenient interface on-top of salesforce.

Right, but garbage in, garbage out, whether you are feeding your CRM directly or via a shiny UI layer. No amount of ML can save you if the sales droid isnt filing data.

Can’t track what you don’t know about is a constant issue with sales groups lacking proper structure and processes - it should be easier to do it right than to sidestep the resource.

Re: Using machine learning to predict the leads that close

#16

Post by spoonjim »

unlikelymordant wrote: post #8

What should you do with this information though? Should the salespeople focus on the customers that are most likely to convert? Or should the salespeople give minimal attention to those, and focus most on the ones less likely, but not 0 probability, to convert. I think the most important outputs of this are understanding the factors involved in conversion to tune business processes, not necessarily using the outputs…

This is not like medical triage where some people will just recover on their own... there are vanishingly few customers who are going to buy without a focused sales effort. Your time is best spent on those most likely to convert because even "most likely to convert" in B2B sales is not someone coming to your office and pounding your desk and saying TELL ME WHAT I NEED TO DO FOR YOU TO LET ME BUY THIS

Re: Using machine learning to predict the leads that close

#17

Post by 6stringmerc »

rukuu001 wrote: post #11
unlikelymordant wrote: post #8

What should you do with this information though? Should the salespeople focus on the customers that are most likely to convert? Or should the salespeople give minimal attention to those, and focus most on the ones less likely, but not 0 probability, to convert. I think the most important outputs of this are understanding the factors involved in conversion to tune business processes, not necessarily using the outputs…

Yeah, the salespeople avoid spending time on leads unlikely to close. They're all operating on this kind of information already (like the basic stuff - is this person a decision-maker, do they have budget etc etc). I take this seriously because I've seen consultants making money in this space already (advising on leads unlikely to close).

Maybe it’s like the nuance in music - knowing the notes not to play. I think the art is in weighing the variables as a human because they can change also based on competition in the room. Having a career ongoing in sales support I’ve seen first hand how erratic the decision trees can be for private or public organizations. While the general setup is similar “do business with X with Y” the ingredients can differ widely to get to the sale. ML might tell you to send a holiday gift but I bet the human has a better idea of what kind of gift to send than ML.

Re: Using machine learning to predict the leads that close

#18

Post by conductr »

unlikelymordant wrote: post #8

What should you do with this information though? Should the salespeople focus on the customers that are most likely to convert? Or should the salespeople give minimal attention to those, and focus most on the ones less likely, but not 0 probability, to convert. I think the most important outputs of this are understanding the factors involved in conversion to tune business processes, not necessarily using the outputs…

You could charge more or less and optimize revenue

Re: Using machine learning to predict the leads that close

#19

Post by standrews »

unlikelymordant wrote: post #8

What should you do with this information though? Should the salespeople focus on the customers that are most likely to convert? Or should the salespeople give minimal attention to those, and focus most on the ones less likely, but not 0 probability, to convert. I think the most important outputs of this are understanding the factors involved in conversion to tune business processes, not necessarily using the outputs…

The answer here, as always, is "it depends".

It almost always makes sense to not waste time on "dead" leads. Best to start there.

You'll probably get the highest ROI when you focus on the leads that are somewhat likely to convert (ie. you'll influence those sitting on the fence).

But if you're short of people and have lots of high-quality leads, you'll probably want to focus on the leads most likely to convert.

Back at my previous company (fast-growing SaaS), we ran an AB test where leads were split into six groups: half received sales touches and half didn't, and there were three lead score groups in both (low, medium, high probability to close). Working with the medium group gave the biggest uplift.

Re: Using machine learning to predict the leads that close

#20

Post by standrews »

CarbonCycles wrote: post #3

I like your blog on how you use EDA, but I'm not sure I'm getting the Machine Learning piece. It would be nice if you guys went into more details, but I appreciate how you were able to tie together different data sources and walked ppl through the analysis!

There's a separate technical post coming - will post a link here once it's live.
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