Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, a bit underwhelming, but it's a recruitment event and you've got to start somewhere. Question is how fast and if they can catch up with BD in terms of control.
It seems strange that this comment was so aggressively down voted. Anything related to Elon gets the same treatment by HN that I feel that Elon invites a visceral rather than an objective reaction.
Tesla AI Day 2022
11–20 of 91 posts
Re: Tesla AI Day 2022
#12Earlier quoted context omitted.
I mean it was an embarrassingly janky piece of shit that looked like a slight breeze might send it to the ground. Nobody would first look at that and then want to get into a self driving car built by the same company.
I mean.. checking out twitter, there are just hundreds of people, at least, who were just blown away by this janky nonsense and the "fact" that tesla will "ship millions" of these this year "for $20k." There's some kind of mass delusion going on.
Just like million robo taxis in 2020 :-)
Re: Tesla AI Day 2022
#13Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, a bit underwhelming, but it's a recruitment event and you've got to start somewhere. Question is how fast and if they can catch up with BD in terms of control.
I assume they’ll catchup as fast as they catch up with their FSD to Waymo. Which is driving customers for years, while Tesla’s FSD cannot go without intervention for more than few miles, at best, in any more complex environment. And yes, I know Waymo uses HD maps and limited geo area. So does Tesla, and they’re explicitly mapping and testing areas driven by popular influencers. And it’s assuming that there’s actually…
Re: Tesla AI Day 2022
#14The Tesla Robot was underwhelming. I appreciate the engineers on stage highlighting their work, but it all felt a generation behind Boston Dynamic’s efforts.
This is also an electric motor robot vs pneumatic actuators from BD.
Re: Tesla AI Day 2022
#15The Tesla Robot was underwhelming. I appreciate the engineers on stage highlighting their work, but it all felt a generation behind Boston Dynamic’s efforts.
Tesla is going for volume and just started.
Re: Tesla AI Day 2022
#16Earlier quoted context omitted.
I assume they’ll catchup as fast as they catch up with their FSD to Waymo. Which is driving customers for years, while Tesla’s FSD cannot go without intervention for more than few miles, at best, in any more complex environment. And yes, I know Waymo uses HD maps and limited geo area. So does Tesla, and they’re explicitly mapping and testing areas driven by popular influencers. And it’s assuming that there’s actually…
If you mean catch up as in FSD is making billions while Waymo is losing billions, yes the comparison is apt. Boston Dynamics tech is very impressive but they don't seem very good at commercializing it. Tesla bot may be janky now, but I could imagine it could do some useful tasks in their factories in 5-8 years or so. We'll see, I think the development will take even longer than self-driving, but at least it will be f…
Re: Tesla AI Day 2022
#17Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you mean catch up as in FSD is making billions while Waymo is losing billions, yes the comparison is apt. Boston Dynamics tech is very impressive but they don't seem very good at commercializing it. Tesla bot may be janky now, but I could imagine it could do some useful tasks in their factories in 5-8 years or so. We'll see, I think the development will take even longer than self-driving, but at least it will be f…
Tesla FSD isn't making billions. What are you on?
1. 160k people have bought and recieved FSD Beta at somewhere between $5 and $15k (today's price). Let's say an average of $8k, that means $1.28 billion. More have bought it but are waiting to get access.
2. FSD take rate is estimated as of now to be around 7% of vehicles sold world-wide. At the current price of $15k and the estimated 1.4 million vehicles sold this year, that amounts to $1.47 billion.
Numbers are rough estimates, 50% of revenue is held in reserve until FSD is out of beta, and many haven't received the beta yet, still by any measure they are making and will make billions. What you personally think of the product, or if you think Elon is a "snake oil salesman" is not really relevant.
To strong arm any counter argument, it's possible that all these buyers will realize it actually sucks/doesn't work, sue the company and the whole thing falls apart, but I don't see any indication of it. There are plenty of unhappy and happy customers with FSD, but they've clearly found something that people are willing to pay a lot for and many are happy with it. Clearly it needs to improve much further in order to sell this to the wider public beyond people who think it's fun to babysit an AI.
Re: Tesla AI Day 2022
#18Earlier quoted context omitted.
It seems strange that this comment was so aggressively down voted. Anything related to Elon gets the same treatment by HN that I feel that Elon invites a visceral rather than an objective reaction.
Because Elon is snakes oil salesman, who thinks he’s smartest and most important human in the history. He also happens to have some very successful products, that his fan base uses to silence any criticism.
Re: Tesla AI Day 2022
#19Earlier quoted context omitted.
Tesla FSD isn't making billions. What are you on?
It is. Let's check by two measures: 1. 160k people have bought and recieved FSD Beta at somewhere between $5 and $15k (today's price). Let's say an average of $8k, that means $1.28 billion. More have bought it but are waiting to get access. 2. FSD take rate is estimated as of now to be around 7% of vehicles sold world-wide. At the current price of $15k and the estimated 1.4 million vehicles sold this year, that amoun…
Like ignoring how poor your breakdown is over it making 'billions' they've been hit by wave after wave of bad PR. Like the various videos and lawsuits over how poor their quality control is and how many lies they've peddled over FSD.
Re: Tesla AI Day 2022
#20The Tesla Robot was underwhelming. I appreciate the engineers on stage highlighting their work, but it all felt a generation behind Boston Dynamic’s efforts.
I mean it was an embarrassingly janky piece of shit that looked like a slight breeze might send it to the ground. Nobody would first look at that and then want to get into a self driving car built by the same company.
This was amazing by this with the short time it's been in development, and the vision for this project is beyond anything that has been done with humanoid robots. Sure they might fail, but it's an exciting venture to follow.