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Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

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Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#12
Great article. The author mentions: "Machine learning models can now create text and images for zero marginal cost". Another step was just taken in this direction with TikTok launching an 'AI greenscreen' based on text prompts https://techcrunch.com/2022/08/15/tiktok-in-app-text-to-imag...

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#13

That’s because the company correctly intuited a significant gap between its users stated preference — no News Feed — and their revealed preference, which was that they liked News Feed quite a bit. The next fifteen years would prove the company right. That is also why you don't rely solely on your own preferences and behaviors for deciding what product features to build. Also interesting: 1. The Pre-Internet ‘People M…

At the risk of being overly optimistic: Number 4 is an interesting inflection point that could potentially (hopefully) sow the seeds of it's own destruction (or at least radical transformation?)

Which is to say, the move from 3 to 4 strikes me as a move toward "real human interaction," owing to the fact that the "content" there is much less prepackaged Kardashianism and much more "real person sharing real thing."

Hence why I think 4 to 5 is very far from a sure bet. I'm not sure even what Pure AI could even meaningfully signify here.

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#14
You have to dig through this entire article to get to the punchline, but here it is:

> "These AI challenges, I would add, apply to monetization as well: one of the outcomes of Apple’s App Tracking Transparency changes is that advertising needs to shift from a deterministic model to a probabilistic one; the companies with the most data and the greatest amount of computing resources are going to make that shift more quickly and effectively, and I expect Meta to be top of the list. None of this matters, though, without engagement."

Relevant quote:

> "The junk merchant doesn't sell his product to the consumer, he sells the consumer to his product. He does not improve and simplify his merchandise. He degrades and simplifies the client." ― William S. Burroughs, Naked Lunch

This is slightly more complex with the social media business model: the product is the viewer, rather like a fish. The heroin-like bait to catch the viewer is the stream of short distractive entertainment content. The actual client buys the fish (the viewer) from the social media outfit. The actual client is an advertiser out to sell a product, a government out to push propaganda, a politician out to get votes, etc.

The more interesting aspect of this is that the clients might be paying the social media providers to control the content stream as a means of manipulating their audience. Weapons manufacturers might want Facebook/Instagram/Twitter to bury anti-war content; corporate media giants might want independent outlets booted off the recommendation algorithm results; established political parties might want independents hidden from view; etc

It's very plausible that this monetization model - i.e. not just the delivery of targeted advertising content to the 'engaged' audience, but also the targeted removal of competing content as a kind of shadow control of what that audience gets to see, is part of the revenue stream of Meta, Google, Twitter, etc.

Of course, people will agree that China is doing this with TikTok, but many tend to get uncomfortable if asked if the US government and major corporations are also playing this game on Twitter, Google, Instagram, Facebook, and Reddit.

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#15
> That’s because the company correctly intuited a significant gap between its users stated preference — no News Feed — and their revealed preference, which was that they liked News Feed quite a bit. The next fifteen years would prove the company right.

Stop right there. What you mean is that their corporate wallets like it. These companies delude themselves if they consider “spend more time in the app” as an indicator for users liking it, in no sane world it is true.

I like Mail.app because I need to spend so little time in it to get the most value out. I hate Instagram because it happens all the time that I missed a friend’s post because I didn’t scroll far enough.

Curiously enough, this self-centered self-delusion only happens in UI teams of pseudo-free double-sided market “products” where you have to keep viewing ads to make the corp money.

This business model also breaks how the market is supposed to work—the actual users and paying customers are now separate groups, users cannot vote with their wallets (or even leave, because the offering is free and my friends are here so the moat for competitors is infinite), and company’s interests are not aligned with theirs.

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#16
A good perspective on the ever-shifting mediums.

Isn't the whole premise of modern social media to get you to engage in stuff you would not normally engage in out of societal norms, but is data driven to prove you can't look away?

Most modern "personalized infinite feeds" are preying on these psychological tricks where we can't look away from something shocking, seductive, or comforting. i.e. show something painful and then show something pleasureful to play games with your dopamine and adrenaline.

Technology will continue to get more persuasive until we find moderation with it. The medium will continue to evolve and we'll continue to increase our screentime year over year cutting into our sleep and work until we do so.

https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Persuasive_technology

https://www.cdc.gov/nccdphp/dnpao/multimedia/infographics/ge...

I even wrote a book on this topic from the perspective of a millennial. While most of my mental health issues were because of my addiction to the internet/technology/media, I can only begin to wonder how this fares to the rest of the world given some of the known statistics about depression, anxiety, self-harm, and more at younger ages.

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#17

There is something about the TikTok style swiping videos which just hits differently. I am far from the demographic for TikTok, but find it super addictive so just keep it off my phone. I barely use Instagram, but having checked in a few times recently I find myself mindlessly swiping their “Reels” for hours before pulling myself away from it. YouTube is my goto timewaste, but now when I pick it up on mobile I find m…

same here with the youtube/tik tok shorts, a barrage of video diarrhea to make my brain light up.

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#18
I don't think we have solved image generation with DALLE-2 yet. There are still many challenges before we move on to video:

- generating drawing that upon close inspection don't have obvious defects.

- generate hand drawn text.

- being able to replicate the same character along multiple angles consistently with the same style.

I feel like this is going to become increasingly hard because there are many things in drawing that can't be capture quite well with words.

It's analogous to code being more expressive than no-code drag and drop.

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#19

Does an addict "like" the thing they are addicted to? Or have the chemical responses in their brain been manipulated to the advantage of the person selling the addiction? Recommendation media is the perfection of a system that uses our dopamine response to control the behavior of those viewing it. At some point, I think we can agree that this isn't good for those consuming the content, especially as research shows th…

There's a middle period in addiction where you still get novel enjoyment from the thing you're doing, but finally realize it's bad for you. It seems to be around that time when people choose a path - either quitting that thing or leaning into it, consequences be damned.

So yes they still like it, but the ratio between enjoyment and suffering starts to invert such that it's beyond the point of diminishing returns. Beyond that point you are mentally or physically dependent, and it starts to become simply avoiding the withdrawls. The addictive behavior becomes the new normal even if it's totally destructive.

This is why addiction is so hard

Note here: most people are thinking about intoxicants when reading the above, but it's equally true for anything in unhealthy amounts (food, games, running, collecting stamps etc...)

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#20

You have to dig through this entire article to get to the punchline, but here it is: > "These AI challenges, I would add, apply to monetization as well: one of the outcomes of Apple’s App Tracking Transparency changes is that advertising needs to shift from a deterministic model to a probabilistic one; the companies with the most data and the greatest amount of computing resources are going to make that shift more qu…

They don't need to pay for removal of competing content directly, because people only have so many hours in the day. If they pay to promote favorable content, the unfavorable content will be crowded out.
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