11–20 of 86 posts
So, they fit a fancy model, played with it, and claim the result says something about the real world? I have never seen a valid social science result derived by this method. This is just fancy model lovers dabbling. If the patterns they claim are real, they can be exposed with much simpler and direct methods. Let's talk after that's been done.
“ These precise predictions enable equally precise evaluation of inequities in law enforcement, discovering that response to increased crime rates is biased by the socio-economic status of neighborhoods, draining policy resources to wealthy areas with disproportionately negative impacts for the inner city, as demonstrated in Chicago and six other major U.S. metropolitan areas.” In other words, cops abandon poor neigh…
Korean immigrants found that out the hard way almost 30 years ago in LA.
So, they fit a fancy model, played with it, and claim the result says something about the real world? I have never seen a valid social science result derived by this method. This is just fancy model lovers dabbling. If the patterns they claim are real, they can be exposed with much simpler and direct methods. Let's talk after that's been done.
Is fancy supposed to be derogatory in this statement?
0.90 AUC doesn't mean everything you can get this model to tell you is real, especially if you are trying to tell a causal story.
Now, show me a plot of your data with a trend line and I'll often be able to tell you if there's a real pattern in your data.
So, they fit a fancy model, played with it, and claim the result says something about the real world? I have never seen a valid social science result derived by this method. This is just fancy model lovers dabbling. If the patterns they claim are real, they can be exposed with much simpler and direct methods. Let's talk after that's been done.
What are those simpler and direct methods? Have they been done?
No social scientist worth their salt would just report some model-generated plots and claim it represented something about the real world. That's just hypothesis generation. Confirming the hypothesis requires direct data analysis.
“ These precise predictions enable equally precise evaluation of inequities in law enforcement, discovering that response to increased crime rates is biased by the socio-economic status of neighborhoods, draining policy resources to wealthy areas with disproportionately negative impacts for the inner city, as demonstrated in Chicago and six other major U.S. metropolitan areas.” In other words, cops abandon poor neigh…
So, they fit a fancy model, played with it, and claim the result says something about the real world? I have never seen a valid social science result derived by this method. This is just fancy model lovers dabbling. If the patterns they claim are real, they can be exposed with much simpler and direct methods. Let's talk after that's been done.
There are complications, though. In the 90s, leadership figures in minority communities rightly called out under policing as a serious issue that hurt their communities and needed addressing. Nowadays enforcement actions, although increasing overall quality of life and decreasing violence and premature death, are highly politically sensitive, and police in those communities can expect lots of push back and legal actions without the support of political leadership.
It's simple enough to say "well police officers should enforce perfectly," and that would of course be ideal. But in a world where perfect solutions are the enemy of the good, what's the best course of action? There are always tradeoffs, and activists need to recognize them.
“ These precise predictions enable equally precise evaluation of inequities in law enforcement, discovering that response to increased crime rates is biased by the socio-economic status of neighborhoods, draining policy resources to wealthy areas with disproportionately negative impacts for the inner city, as demonstrated in Chicago and six other major U.S. metropolitan areas.” In other words, cops abandon poor neigh…
"The reason why people in run down neighborhoods get arrested more is because the cops are biased. Also they don't police run down neighborhoods enough."