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FiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

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Re: FiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast

#11

Post by francisofascii »

Jonovono wrote: post #7
wbsss4412 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even with the benefit of hindsight, I don’t know how one can look back and say trump wasn’t an underdog going into the election. What exactly were they supposed to do? Ignore polls that show him behind and divine somehow that he was actually going to win based off of nothing?

Anyone paying attention was pretty certain Trump was going to win that. All you had to do was look at Trumps subreddit vs Hilarys. Look at Trumps rally turnouts. The energy behind Trump was insane and it seemed pretty clear something was going on in the media to make it sound like only a "minority" of people supported him. That's why I bet around $1000 with some coworkers he would win that were certain he was going t…

So are you suggesting forecasters should factor in Reddit posts/votes and rally turnouts?

Re: FiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast

#12

Post by wbsss4412 »

Jonovono wrote: post #7
wbsss4412 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even with the benefit of hindsight, I don’t know how one can look back and say trump wasn’t an underdog going into the election. What exactly were they supposed to do? Ignore polls that show him behind and divine somehow that he was actually going to win based off of nothing?

Anyone paying attention was pretty certain Trump was going to win that. All you had to do was look at Trumps subreddit vs Hilarys. Look at Trumps rally turnouts. The energy behind Trump was insane and it seemed pretty clear something was going on in the media to make it sound like only a "minority" of people supported him. That's why I bet around $1000 with some coworkers he would win that were certain he was going t…

> The energy behind Trump was insane and it seemed pretty clear something was going on in the media to make it sound like only a "minority" of people supported him.

Only a minority of people did.

What’s wild about 2016 is that people seem to have bought into the narrative that because it was such an upset of the mainstream media’s expectations, that somehow that translated into an actual landslide.

Trump didn’t win the popular vote, and his actual margin in the decisive states was razor thin as well.

Did he have more passionate fans than Hilary? Clearly. But a passion vote counts the exact same amount as a “lesser of two evils” vote. See: 2020.

Re: FiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast

#13

Post by egberts1 »

Sakos wrote: post #10
egberts1 wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What more modeling does 538 need … to cover all their bases … and still miss the mark? As far as I have read of their blogs, they’re par for the course.

Their predictions were far higher than anybody else. I'm not sure what you're expecting them to do. They can't just ignore data because it "feels" like it's more likely that Trump will win. Its not a number they arbitrarily decide on. Based on the numbers they had, they made the most accurate estimation they could.

Have you actually gauged 538’s own probabilities against themselves?

I mean it’s not like them attaining “The Founders” status (excuse me, Isaac Asimov), not even closed.

Re: FiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast

#14

Post by gizmo686 »

Jonovono wrote: post #7
wbsss4412 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even with the benefit of hindsight, I don’t know how one can look back and say trump wasn’t an underdog going into the election. What exactly were they supposed to do? Ignore polls that show him behind and divine somehow that he was actually going to win based off of nothing?

Anyone paying attention was pretty certain Trump was going to win that. All you had to do was look at Trumps subreddit vs Hilarys. Look at Trumps rally turnouts. The energy behind Trump was insane and it seemed pretty clear something was going on in the media to make it sound like only a "minority" of people supported him. That's why I bet around $1000 with some coworkers he would win that were certain he was going t…

If your analysis is correct, you would expect Trump to have gotten a desicive victory in the popular vote. Not only did that not happen, but he lost the popular vote by 2 points.

Re: FiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast

#15

Post by meatsauce »

elikoga wrote: post #9
Jonovono wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anyone paying attention was pretty certain Trump was going to win that. All you had to do was look at Trumps subreddit vs Hilarys. Look at Trumps rally turnouts. The energy behind Trump was insane and it seemed pretty clear something was going on in the media to make it sound like only a "minority" of people supported him. That's why I bet around $1000 with some coworkers he would win that were certain he was going t…

A minority did vote for trump though

President Trump won the popular vote in 30 of 50 states.

Re: FiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast

#16

Post by Jonovono »

francisofascii wrote: post #11
Jonovono wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anyone paying attention was pretty certain Trump was going to win that. All you had to do was look at Trumps subreddit vs Hilarys. Look at Trumps rally turnouts. The energy behind Trump was insane and it seemed pretty clear something was going on in the media to make it sound like only a "minority" of people supported him. That's why I bet around $1000 with some coworkers he would win that were certain he was going t…

So are you suggesting forecasters should factor in Reddit posts/votes and rally turnouts?

I don't care what they do.

Re: FiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast

#17

Post by Jonovono »

wbsss4412 wrote: post #12
Jonovono wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anyone paying attention was pretty certain Trump was going to win that. All you had to do was look at Trumps subreddit vs Hilarys. Look at Trumps rally turnouts. The energy behind Trump was insane and it seemed pretty clear something was going on in the media to make it sound like only a "minority" of people supported him. That's why I bet around $1000 with some coworkers he would win that were certain he was going t…

> The energy behind Trump was insane and it seemed pretty clear something was going on in the media to make it sound like only a "minority" of people supported him. Only a minority of people did. What’s wild about 2016 is that people seem to have bought into the narrative that because it was such an upset of the mainstream media’s expectations, that somehow that translated into an actual landslide. Trump didn’t win t…

I'm Canadian so I was pretty removed. All i'm saying is I wasn't surprised that Trump won. I was expecting that based off of my experience.

Re: FiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast

#18

Post by Ma8ee »

egberts1 wrote: post #4
gizmo686 wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the very first paragraph of your link. > Trump is a significant underdog — he has a 13 percent chance of winning the election according to our polls-only model and a 23 percent chance according to polls-plus. But those probabilities aren’t that small. For comparison, you have a 17 percent chance of losing a “game” of Russian roulette. A) Their more advanced model gave Trump a 23% chance, the 13% chance you menti…

What more modeling does 538 need … to cover all their bases … and still miss the mark? As far as I have read of their blogs, they’re par for the course.

They didn’t miss the mark.

Re: FiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast

#19

Post by kadoban »

Jonovono wrote: post #7
wbsss4412 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even with the benefit of hindsight, I don’t know how one can look back and say trump wasn’t an underdog going into the election. What exactly were they supposed to do? Ignore polls that show him behind and divine somehow that he was actually going to win based off of nothing?

Anyone paying attention was pretty certain Trump was going to win that. All you had to do was look at Trumps subreddit vs Hilarys. Look at Trumps rally turnouts. The energy behind Trump was insane and it seemed pretty clear something was going on in the media to make it sound like only a "minority" of people supported him. That's why I bet around $1000 with some coworkers he would win that were certain he was going t…

> Anyone paying attention was pretty certain Trump was going to win that. All you had to do was look at Trumps subreddit vs Hilarys. Look at Trumps rally turnouts.

How'd that work out in 2020?

Re: FiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast

#20

Post by gizmo686 »

egberts1 wrote: post #13
Sakos wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their predictions were far higher than anybody else. I'm not sure what you're expecting them to do. They can't just ignore data because it "feels" like it's more likely that Trump will win. Its not a number they arbitrarily decide on. Based on the numbers they had, they made the most accurate estimation they could.

Have you actually gauged 538’s own probabilities against themselves? I mean it’s not like them attaining “The Founders” status (excuse me, Isaac Asimov), not even closed.

You can view a bit of their analysis here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/presi...

Their seems to be a systemetic bias for them to be underconfident. That is to say, when they a result is likly (>50%) to happen, they underestimate how likely. Conversly, when they think an event is less likely (Correcting for this systematic error would mean they should have given Clinton an even higher chance.

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